Stocks are lacking support

VN-Index had its fourth consecutive decline after seven consecutive increases. The common point of the four recent declines was that the fluctuations were not large, the decline was not high, and liquidity was absent.

The matched volume on HOSE yesterday was the lowest in the last 4 sessions of decline and decreased by (-24.3%) compared to the average of 20 sessions. Market liquidity has decreased by 33% in the recent bullish sessions, showing that cash flow is still afraid of the risk of the market continuing to decline.

Foreign investors continued to increase net selling with a total value of more than VND 1,800 billion, nearly 2.5 times higher than the previous session, in which the focus of selling was a pair of banking stocks including HDB and STB.

This is not a bad and common development of the market moving close to an important resistance area. The market is gaining momentum to prepare for the opening range phase in the coming time.

The world macro context remains favorable as there are many grounds to believe that September 2024 will be the ripe time for the US Central Bank (Fed) to cut interest rates.

The market has gradually accepted the new interest rate level when the average overnight interbank interest rate has fluctuated around 4 - 4.5%/year over the past 3 months. The interest rate mobilized at commercial banks for 6 - 9 month terms has increased from the bottom of 3.6%/year to the current 4%/year, but this is still considered a low interest rate and not attractive to investors in the context of inflation at 4.1%. The USD/VND exchange rate has cooled down with the exchange rate on the free market decreasing from 26,030 VND to 25,735 VND in the past 2 weeks. The stability of interest rates and exchange rates is an important foundation to help the stock market create many investment opportunities.

The second quarter 2024 business results of enterprises will gradually be revealed this week, with the growth picture being differentiated between industry groups. In particular, the banking industry is forecast to have slow business growth, the real estate industry generally has no extraordinary business results, and the retail industry has an impressive recovery from the low base of last year.

Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, said that, however, the current market valuation level is still not attractive, but has only become more reasonable for buying and holding in the medium and long term, when the price increase of many industry groups is reflecting quite far from the actual profit growth.

Therefore, Dr. Phuong believes that positive macroeconomic signals and forecasts of good growth in Q2 business results compared to the same period will be catalysts to help the stock market maintain a positive trend in the second half of 2024. However, investors should still carefully screen for quality investment opportunities, prioritizing leading stocks with attractive valuations and room for future growth.

Experts generally commented on the market trend that the past four sessions of decline have not had enough momentum to form a negative trend and are still leaning towards a sideways accumulation channel. They still expect optimism in the market and maintain the view of prioritizing stocks that have built an accumulation foundation and have an explosive increase. Open buy positions when the general market fluctuates like in the last four sessions.

Source: https://laodong.vn/kinh-doanh/chung-khoan-dang-thieu-diem-tua-1366923.ldo