VN-Index just had a volatile trading week with a strong increase of more than 70 points and heading towards the 1,460 point zone in the last sessions of the week. Notably, the VN30 group of stocks at times conquered the 1,600 point zone and closed at 1,594 points, an all-time high.
The booming trading market was largely contributed by large-cap stocks such as Vingroup, HPG, SSI, FPT and some banking stocks. Foreign investors were a bright spot last week when they continuously net bought, with a total value of up to VND7,000 billion.
The stock market soared last week (Illustration: Huu Khoa).
Commenting on the market in the second half of the year, in its strategic report, Vietcombank Securities Company (VCBS) said that in the base scenario, VN-Index could reach 1,555 points.
In the optimistic scenario, the index could reach 1,663 points with expectations of market upgrade, strong and drastic policies to boost growth and further positive steps from flexible diplomacy .
The increase in the index could help average liquidity increase to at least VND26,000 billion/session. Some factors contributing to the increase in liquidity include the market being upgraded, thereby welcoming foreign capital flows of up to 1.3-1.5 billion USD in the third quarter; foreign investors switching from strong net selling to strong net buying; a series of large-scale enterprises planning to move their floors to HoSE.
According to an analysis report by SSI Securities Company (SSI Research), the average increase in the index in the second half of the year tends to be lower than in the first half of the year. On average, the VN-Index increased by 1.64% in the second half of the year, significantly lower than the 6.42% increase recorded in the first half of the year.
This trend reflects a seasonal decline in market dynamics with a few exceptions. For example, in 2017, the market broke out after a period of consolidation (2013-2016) with the momentum coming from strong foreign investment. These exceptions show the importance of macro factors and liquidity dynamics in determining the market performance in the second half of the year.
Therefore, in the short term, SSI Research believes that the market may witness strong volatility in July and early August. The reason comes from profit-taking pressure during the business results season at the end of July; the room for further loosening of monetary policy is limited in the context of the exchange rate increasing by more than 3% in the first half of the year. At the same time, the impact of tariffs is starting to be more evident.
This unit maintains a positive view on the market in the long term with the target of VN-Index reaching 1,500 points by the end of this year thanks to key drivers such as a stable macroeconomic foundation, sustainable corporate profit growth prospects, easing tariff uncertainties, and a low interest rate environment.
Meanwhile, ACB Securities Company (ACBS) focuses on an investment strategy that prioritizes stability. However, interest rates and liquidity supported by investment cash flow will be catalysts to create momentum for the VN-Index to increase. This unit forecasts that the base valuation area of the VN-Index can reach 1,500 points with liquidity increasing 20% compared to last year.
The company recommends investors focus on portfolios of stocks in sectors including banking, consumer, public investment, technology, chemical fertilizers and civil real estate. However, the report also notes that the global economy is likely to face two biggest risks in the coming time: geopolitical conflicts and tight monetary policy with high interest rates.
Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/chung-khoan-lien-tuc-but-pha-co-the-tang-tiep-den-dau-20250714073313301.htm
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