Russian navy ships moored in a bay at the Russian fleet base in Baltiysk in the Kaliningrad region in 2015 (Photo: Reuters).
The Kaliningrad region, located between Poland and Lithuania, plays a key role in Russia’s defense strategy in the west. Military expert Eduard Basurin calls the region a “military shield” capable of controlling important areas of the Baltic Sea.
The presence of S-400, Iskander-M air defense systems and Bastion missiles creates an anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) zone, limiting NATO operations in the region.
Associate Professor Yuri Zverev at Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University said this makes Kaliningrad a "thorn in the side" of the NATO alliance.
Western analysts, including former NATO commander in Europe James Stavridis, see Kaliningrad as a potential target for neutralization in the event of a conflict.
According to the Czech newspaper Casopis, the NATO alliance may seek to control the area to eliminate the threat to its eastern flank.
Such plans have been outlined in statements by NATO generals.
The US Army commander for Europe and Africa, General Chris Donahue, said NATO forces could take control of Russia's heavily fortified Kaliningrad region if the situation required it.
General Donahue asserted that the NATO alliance’s current operational capabilities would allow it to “take that area off the ground” faster than ever before. He also said the alliance had a plan in place to do so.
NATO's goals
The Kaliningrad region, smaller than most other Russian regions, is surrounded by NATO countries, making defense difficult.
Experts say the compact location of the area allows for enemy bombardment from all directions. Russian air force and air defenses could quickly be overwhelmed by NATO artillery and air power, and the Baltic Fleet, based in Baltiysk, would be at risk of being attacked in its port.
Kaliningrad is isolated from other regions of Russia and borders two NATO members, Poland and Lithuania (Photo: TRT).
James Hooker of the Jamestown Foundation said Polish and US forces could try to control the area by neutralizing A2/AD systems.
According to experts, Poland's old S-125 air defense system and delays in deploying Patriot systems could give Russia a temporary advantage in the air, but in a full-scale conflict, NATO forces could play a decisive role.
NATO's interest in Kaliningrad is tied to the region's strategic location. It is seen as a potential staging area for deterrence against the alliance, but also a vulnerable target.
According to European media, Poland is preparing for a potential conflict by strengthening its defenses and conducting military exercises near Suwalki. Lithuania has installed anti-tank fences on its border with Kaliningrad, and Estonia has begun inspecting Russian ships in the Baltic Sea from 2024, increasing the risk of provocation.
NATO exercises such as Iron Wolf and BALTOPS regularly rehearse scenarios aimed at deterring “Russian infiltration.”
This year, the Baltic Sentinel operation involving German and Dutch ships has increased patrols in the Baltic, which Russian experts see as preparation for a blockade of the region.
Russia's response
Russian experts warn that an attack on Kaliningrad would have catastrophic consequences for NATO and Baltic countries.
According to Mr. Khramchikhin, in case Kaliningrad is attacked, Russia will be forced to use nuclear weapons, because protecting the region by conventional means is impossible.
Experts believe that an attack on Kaliningrad, even if not nuclear, would lead to a full-scale nuclear strike on military facilities and infrastructure in Poland, including NATO troops on its territory. At the same time, Russia could establish a land corridor through Lithuania and Latvia.
Russia's approach, despite the risk of global escalation, is aimed at forcing NATO to reconsider its plans.
Military expert Konstantin Sivkov proposed asymmetric measures, including the use of drones to attack NATO ships and cargo ships in the Baltic region, which could paralyze shipping and the region's economy .
Russian analysts believe that Moscow could respond not only in the Baltic region but also in other directions, including attacks from the territory of Belarus, where nuclear weapons have been deployed.
An attack on Kaliningrad would likely spark all-out war between Russia and NATO, with a high probability of nuclear conflict.
Khramchikhin warned that even a limited use of nuclear weapons against Russia, such as those from France or Britain, would trigger a strong response targeting its military facilities. This is in stark contrast to the situation in Ukraine, where environmental and political risks limit the use of nuclear weapons.
Chairman of the Russian State Duma (Lower House) Foreign Affairs Committee Leonid Slutsky said that any attack on Kaliningrad would be considered an act of war against Russia and would result in a severe response.
“An attack on Kaliningrad is tantamount to an attack on Russia. Russia is ready to consider all appropriate response measures, including the use of nuclear weapons. The American general should consider this before making such statements,” Mr. Slutsky warned.
He also warned that statements regarding the possibility of attacking the Kaliningrad region could “ignite World War III, leading to a global confrontation in which no side can win.”
Russian presidential aide Nikolai Patrushev also warned of tough Russian action if the Kaliningrad region is attacked.
“We have long known about the West’s plans for Kaliningrad. I can only comment in one way: the Kaliningrad region is an inseparable part of Russia, and any military action against this region will be met with an immediate and crushing response using all the forces and means at our disposal in accordance with our military doctrine and the principles of our state policy on nuclear deterrence,” Patrushev warned.
He stressed: “The Russian Federation has all the necessary military tools to ensure security in the Kaliningrad region.”
According to Dan Tri
Source: https://baothanhhoa.vn/chuyen-gi-xay-ra-neu-nato-tan-cong-vung-kaliningrad-chien-luoc-cua-nga-256789.htm
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