UOB experts provide the latest forecast for gold prices.

(NLĐO) – Although gold prices may face selling pressure in the short term, the highest level this year could reach $5,400 per ounce.

At noon on February 10th, the price of SJC gold bars was listed by businesses at around 178 million VND/ounce for buying and 181 million VND/ounce for selling - stable compared to the opening price of the day.

Meanwhile, the price of gold on the world market is at $5,024 per ounce, down about $25 compared to the beginning of the morning session.

Gold prices have been fluctuating constantly in recent days, sometimes by as much as a hundred USD per ounce. The price range of gold over the past two weeks has reached thousands of USD per ounce, from around $4,400 per ounce to a record high of $5,600 per ounce.

Wait for the speculative activity to subside.

In his latest forecast on gold prices, Heng Koon How, Head of Market Strategy, Global Market and Economic Research Unit - UOB Bank Singapore, suggested that the market needs more time for speculative activity to subside, thereby helping gold prices gradually stabilize and establish a new level.

Importantly, despite short-term volatility driving gold prices to unusually high levels, its role as a safe haven and portfolio diversification tool for key investor groups remains unchanged.

Central banks globally, particularly in emerging markets and Asia, continue to increase their strategic allocations to gold.

UOB Singapore maintains a positive long-term view on gold and has revised its price forecast upwards to US$4,800 per ounce in Q1 2026, gradually increasing in subsequent quarters and reaching a peak of US$5,400 per ounce in Q4 2026.

"While maintaining a positive long-term outlook, it's important to note the risk of continued short-term volatility in gold prices. Given the large-scale speculative positions accumulated during the recent period of rapid price increases, the possibility of continued selling pressure on gold prices in the short term cannot be ruled out," analyzed Mr. Heng Koon How.

Gold prices are projected to reach a high of $5,400 per ounce by the end of this year.

Explaining the crash in gold prices.

Numerous analyses and assessments have followed the sharp rise and subsequent plunge in gold prices at the end of January 2026. Starting the year above $4,300 per ounce, gold prices surged to nearly $5,600 on January 28th, before experiencing a massive sell-off of almost 10% just two days later, reaching a low of around $4,400 per ounce on February 2nd.

UOB experts believe that in the context of this extremely volatile two-way market, the expected volatility of gold prices has risen to over 30% - significantly higher than during the COVID-19 pandemic, although still lower than the extreme levels recorded during the global financial crisis.

Regarding the recent drop in gold prices, Mr. Heng Koon How suggested that one factor was the scarcity of physical gold recorded at many major trading centers around the world, as individual investors rushed in, contributing to the surge in buying activity. The increase in total open positions in the gold futures market at COMEX, as well as the trading volume of the GLD gold ETF on the NYSE, was unprecedented.

Previously, in mid-January 2026, in an effort to reduce volatility, COMEX changed the margin calculation method for gold and precious metals, from a fixed nominal margin in USD to a percentage of the contract value. In addition, tightening measures by Chinese authorities, along with the closure of some funds, have begun to reduce short-term demand for gold.

Currently, the world gold price, converted according to the listed exchange rate, is approximately 157.9 million VND per tael, which is 23 million VND lower than the price of SJC gold bars per tael.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/chuyen-gia-uob-du-bao-moi-nhat-ve-gia-vang-196260210115653137.htm