Will the upward trend continue?

The forecast for pepper prices on July 1, 2024, indicates that the upward trend will continue. This is because excessively high pepper prices have caused some export businesses to temporarily halt purchases. This is a move aimed at rebalancing the pepper market, which is currently experiencing speculation.

According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), in the short term, pepper prices may experience downward adjustments, but they will not be too drastic, unlikely to reach the low levels seen previously, and the market has already established a new price level.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development , in 2020, the total area of ​​pepper plantations nationwide was over 130,000 hectares, but by 2023, this area had decreased to 120,000 hectares with a production of 190,000 tons. In 2024, the estimated pepper production is only about 170,000 tons, the lowest level in the last 5 years.

Pepper price forecast for July 1, 2024: Will the upward trend continue?

In the domestic market, today, June 30, 2024, pepper prices in the Southeast region reversed course and increased by 2,000 - 3,000 VND/kg in some localities, trading around 154,800 VND/kg, with the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province at 157,000 VND/kg.

Accordingly, the price of pepper in Dak Lak is being purchased at 155,000 VND/kg, an increase of 3,000 VND/kg. The price of pepper in Chu Se (Gia Lai) is currently at 153,000 VND/kg, an increase of 3,000 VND/kg. The price of pepper in Dak Nong today is recorded at 157,000 VND/kg, an increase of 2,000 VND/kg.

In the Southeast region, pepper prices increased by 3,000 VND/kg today. Specifically, in Ba Ria - Vung Tau, the price is 154,000 VND/kg; in Binh Phuoc, the price reached 155,000 VND/kg.

On the world market, at the close of the most recent trading session, the International Pepper Community (IPC) listed the price of Lampung black pepper (Indonesia) at US$7,106/ton, up 0.17%; the price of Brazilian ASTA 570 black pepper at US$7,300/ton; and the price of Kuching black pepper (Malaysia) ASTA at US$7,500/ton.

Muntok white pepper is priced at US$9,048/ton, up 0.17%; Malaysian ASTA white pepper is priced at US$8,800/ton.

Vietnamese black pepper is trading at US$6,500/ton for the 500 g/l grade; US$7,000/ton for the 550 g/l grade; and white pepper at US$9,500/ton. IPC slightly increased pepper prices in Indonesia; and decreased prices for Vietnamese pepper.

Domestic pepper prices on June 30 , 2024

Provinces and cities	Unit	The price offered by traders.	Increase/decrease compared to yesterday
Chu Se (Gia Lai)	VND/kg	153,000	+3,000
­­ Dak Lak	VND/kg	155,000	+3,000
Boeing Nong	VND/kg	157,000	+2,000
Binh Phuoc	VND/kg	155,000	+3,000
Ba Ria - Vung Tau	VND/kg	154,000	+3,000

* This information is for reference only. Prices may vary depending on the time and location.

The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) forecasts that pepper prices will continue to rise in the near future, but the rate of increase will slow down. Currently, there is a shortage of pepper supply while demand is recovering strongly from major markets such as Europe, the US, and China. This year's pepper production in Vietnam and many major producing countries is predicted to decline due to the impact of the El Nino phenomenon and a decrease in cultivated area.

As of the end of May, Vietnam had exported 109,330 tons of pepper, equivalent to nearly 65% ​​of the current crop year's production. This has led to increasingly limited supply, with little left for export while the 2025 harvest season is still eight months away. This poses a significant challenge for the pepper market, as supply is projected to be lower than global demand.

In the first five months of the year, businesses under VPSA exported 99,486 tons of pepper, a 33% increase compared to the same period last year and accounting for 86.9% of the market share. Conversely, businesses outside VPSA only achieved 14,938 tons, a sharp decrease of 73.8% and accounting for 13.1%.

Thus, the total amount of pepper exported nationwide was approximately 114,424 tons, higher than the figure released by the General Department of Customs. According to VPSA, Olam Vietnam continued to be the leading exporter in the first five months of the year, reaching 10,762 tons, accounting for 9.4% and increasing by 56.7% compared to the same period last year.

Next are the businesses: Nedspice Vietnam: 8,749 tons, up 15.8%; HaprosimexJSC: 8,113 tons, up 51.1%; Tran Chau: 7,658 tons, down 11.4%; and Phuc Sinh: 7,651 tons, up 14.4%.

Several other businesses experienced a surge in exports, including Sinh Loc Phat (up 171.6%), Simexco Dak Lak (up 150.8%), Hanfimex (up 112.5%), Intimex Group (up 82.9%), Lien Thanh (up 77.5%), and Son Ha Spices (up 68.2%).

Leading white pepper exporting companies include: Nedspice Vietnam, Olam Vietnam, Lien Thanh, Phuc Sinh, and Tran Chau.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-tieu-ngay-172024-da-tang-lieu-van-con-tiep-dien-329234.html