Is the uptrend still going?

Pepper price forecast for July 1, 2024 is still increasing. The reason is that when pepper price is too high, a part of the enterprises exporting this item temporarily stop buying. This is a move to rebalance the pepper market which is being "speculated".

According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), in the short term, pepper prices may have some downward adjustments, but they will not be too deep, it is unlikely to return to the low price level as before and the market has formed a new price level.

According to statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, in 2020, the total pepper area nationwide was more than 130,000 hectares, but by 2023, this area had decreased to 120,000 hectares with an output of 190,000 tons. In 2024, pepper output is estimated to be only about 170,000 tons, the lowest level in the past 5 years.

Pepper price forecast for July 1, 2024: Will the upward trend continue?

In the domestic market, pepper prices today, June 30, 2024, in the Southeast region increased by 2,000 - 3,000 VND/kg in some localities, trading around 154,800 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province was 157,000 VND/kg.

Accordingly, Dak Lak pepper price is purchased at 155,000 VND/kg, an increase of 3,000 VND/kg. Chu Se pepper price (Gia Lai) is currently at 153,000 VND/kg, an increase of 3,000 VND/kg. Dak Nong pepper price today is recorded at 157,000 VND/kg, an increase of 2,000 VND/kg.

In the Southeast region, pepper prices today increased by 3,000 VND/kg. Specifically, in Ba Ria - Vung Tau, it was 154,000 VND/kg; in Binh Phuoc, pepper prices reached 155,000 VND/kg.

In the world market, at the end of the most recent trading session, the International Pepper Community (IPC) listed the price of Lampung black pepper (Indonesia) at 7,106 USD/ton, up 0.17%; the price of Brazilian black pepper ASTA 570 at 7,300 USD/ton; the price of Kuching black pepper (Malaysia) ASTA at 7,500 USD/ton.

Muntok white pepper price is 9,048 USD/ton, up 0.17%; Malaysian ASTA white pepper price is at 8,800 USD/ton.

Vietnam black pepper price is traded at 6,500 USD/ton for 500 g/l; 550 g/l at 7,000 USD/ton; white pepper price is at 9,500 USD/ton. IPC slightly increases pepper price in Indonesia; reduces pepper price in Vietnam.

Domestic pepper price on June 30 , 2024

Province, city	Unit	Trader purchase price	Increase/decrease compared to yesterday
Chu Se (Gia Lai)	VND/kg	153,000	+3,000
­­ Dak Lak	VND/kg	155,000	+3,000
Dak Nong	VND/kg	157,000	+2,000
Binh Phuoc	VND/kg	155,000	+3,000
Ba Ria - Vung Tau	VND/kg	154,000	+3,000

* Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on time and location.

The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) forecasts that pepper prices will continue to increase in the coming time, but the rate of increase will slow down. Currently, pepper supply is in short supply while demand has recovered strongly from major markets such as Europe, the US and China. Pepper output this year in Vietnam and many major producing countries is forecast to decrease, due to the impact of the El Nino phenomenon and the reduction in cultivated area.

By the end of May, Vietnam had exported 109,330 tons of pepper, equivalent to nearly 65% ​​of the current crop year's output. This has caused the supply to increasingly narrow, with not much left for export while the 2025 harvest season is still 8 months away. This is a big challenge for the pepper market as the supply is forecast to be lower than global demand.

In the first 5 months of the year, VPSA enterprises exported 99,486 tons of pepper, up 33% over the same period last year and accounting for 86.9% of the market share. In contrast, enterprises outside VPSA only exported 14,938 tons, down sharply by 73.8% and accounting for 13.1%.

Thus, the total amount of pepper exported nationwide is about 114,424 tons, higher than the data announced by the General Department of Customs. According to VPSA, Olam Vietnam continues to be the leading enterprise in exporting in the first 5 months of the year, reaching 10,762 tons, accounting for 9.4% and increasing by 56.7% compared to the same period.

Next are the enterprises: Nedspice Vietnam: 8,749 tons, up 15.8%; HaprosimexJSC: 8,113 tons, up 51.1%; Tran Chau: 7,658 tons, down 11.4% and Phuc Sinh: 7,651 tons, up 14.4%.

Some other businesses with sudden increases in export volume include Sinh Loc Phat, up 171.6%; Simexco Dak Lak, up 150.8%; Hanfimex, up 112.5%; Intimex Group, up 82.9%; Lien Thanh, up 77.5%; and Gia vi Son Ha, up 68.2%.

Leading white pepper exporters include: Nedspice Vietnam, Olam Vietnam, Lien Thanh, Phuc Sinh and Tran Chau.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-tieu-ngay-172024-da-tang-lieu-van-con-tiep-dien-329234.html