Crude oil and coffee have just 'heated up' the world commodity market.

The energy group fell across the board as all five key commodities were in the red, creating downward pressure on the entire market. At the end of the week (September 29 - October 5, 2025), the MXV-Index fell more than 0.2% to 2,279 points. In contrast to the decline of the energy group, the coffee market was bustling as Arabica and Robusta prices increased by 3.4% and 7.8%, respectively, due to concerns about supply shortages.

Coffee prices skyrocket amid shortage fears

Closing the last trading week, the industrial raw material group recorded relatively mixed developments. The market's focus continued to be on two coffee products when the prices of both products recovered strongly. Specifically, Robusta coffee prices skyrocketed nearly 7.8% to 4,527 USD/ton, while Arabica coffee prices also recovered more than 3.3% to 8,614 USD/ton.

According to MXV, tariff pressure along with supply concerns in Brazil continued to be the main factors supporting coffee prices in the past trading week. Preliminary data from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafé) showed that the country's green coffee exports in the first 9 months of 2025 decreased by 23% compared to the same period last year, reaching only nearly 26 million 60kg bags. Forecast sources also estimated this year's coffee exports at only 40-41 million bags, significantly lower than the record 50.5 million bags last year.

In addition, coffee inventories on the ICE exchange continued to decline sharply, mainly due to the 50% tariff that the US applied to Brazilian goods, thereby disrupting the flow of goods from Brazil to this country. This has forced US roasters to switch to buying on the ICE Exchange instead of importing directly as before to avoid the tax. As of last Friday, certified Arabica coffee inventories were only 538,606 bags, down 8,430 bags from the previous day and down 257,238 bags compared to the same period last year.

In addition, the weather situation has also recorded negative developments, increasing concerns about the tightening of global coffee supplies. In Brazil, hot and dry air is forecast to continue this week in the Southeast region, where the largest coffee producing regions are concentrated. Daytime temperatures in many places in Alta Mogiana (São Paulo state), Triângulo and Cerrado Mineiro remain near 35°C, causing heat stress for coffee plants. Scattered rains are forecast to appear only until the middle of next week.

Meanwhile, in Vietnam, the situation of coffee gardens in the Central Highlands remains stable, with almost no serious damage after storm No. 10. Some gardens have proactively sprayed fungicides, but others assess the situation as not too worrying because the level of fungus is insignificant. Domestic coffee prices on October 4 fluctuated around 115,000 - 116,000 VND/kg, slightly down from last week. FOB Robusta coffee export orders this week were priced from 4,080 to 6,410 USD/ton, with an export volume of more than 12,000 tons, up 69% over the same period last year. Dak Nong Cooperative forecasts that Vietnam's new crop output will remain stable, with the possibility of growth compared to last year not high.

Crude oil prices plummet under pressure from oversupply

On the other hand, according to MXV, the energy market last week witnessed overwhelming selling pressure on most key commodities in the group. Notably, world oil prices experienced 4 out of 5 sessions of price decline. At the end of the week, Brent oil price fell to 64.53 USD/barrel, equivalent to a decrease of about 6.78%; while WTI oil price recorded a weekly decrease of up to 7.36%, stopping at 60.88 USD/barrel.

Oil prices were under pressure last week mainly from the prospect of a global supply glut, as the market continued to speculate that the OPEC+ group would continue to increase production in November. Along with that, commercial crude oil inventories in the US, according to data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), also increased by nearly 1.8 million barrels in the week ending September 26, further reinforcing concerns about oversupply in the market.

In the domestic market, retail gasoline prices have just been adjusted up due to the impact of Russia's fuel export ban. In the adjustment on the afternoon of October 3 by the Ministry of Industry and Trade - Ministry of Finance, all five products increased in price, of which diesel increased the most with 380 VND/liter (equivalent to 2.04%). The two gasoline products E5RON92 and RON95 also had a slight increase of 0.03% and 0.22%, respectively.

According to the official announcement from the Joint Ministry, the main factors affecting domestic gasoline prices include: OPEC+ continued to increase production in October and is expected to increase further in November; production activities in the US were disrupted; crude oil inventories increased; along with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine military tensions, accompanied by attacks on Russian energy facilities. In this adjustment, the Joint Ministry continued not to set aside and use the Gasoline Price Stabilization Fund.

In another development in the energy market, natural gas prices on the NYMEX floor recorded a clear upward trend in the first three sessions of the week, thereby bringing the price of this commodity to close at 3.32 USD/MMBtu, equivalent to an increase of 3.68% compared to the 6th session (September 26). According to MXV, this increase mainly comes from the market's expectation that the demand for LNG consumption at power plants will increase to meet the electricity consumption needs of the people.

According to the Edison Electric Institute, the total electricity output of US plants in the week ending September 27 increased by 5.96% compared to the same period last year. In addition, the report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) also showed that the increase in natural gas inventories during the week was not as high as investors expected, thereby positively supporting gas prices in the last two sessions of the week.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/dau-tho-va-caphe-vua-lam-nong-thi-truong-hang-hoa-the-gioi-20251006082345688.htm