Asian oil prices headed for biggest weekly drop in 3 months

Oil prices rose on Tuesday in Asia after four consecutive sessions of declines, after a fire broke out at one of the largest refineries on the US West Coast, but were still on track for their biggest weekly decline since late June 2025.

Pumping gas for vehicles at a gas station in Jiangsu, China. Photo: THX/TTXVN

Brent crude futures rose 61 cents, or 1%, to $64.73 a barrel at 1:58 p.m. Vietnam time. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 62 cents, or 1%, to $61.10 a barrel.

In a filing with regulators, the US energy giant reported a fire at its 290,000 barrel-per-day refinery, which mainly produces gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.

However, so far this week, Brent and WTI oil prices have fallen 7.6% and 7% respectively compared to last week, as the market expects the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, the OPEC+ group, to continue increasing production despite concerns about oversupply.

Reuters quoted sources as saying that OPEC+ could agree to increase production by up to 500,000 barrels per day in November 2025, three times the increase in October 2025, as Saudi Arabia wants to regain market share.

If OPEC+ does announce a 500,000 bpd increase later this week, it could be a big enough increase to push crude prices even lower, initially to $58 a barrel, before falling to a yearly low of around $55 a barrel, according to analyst Tony Sycamore at IG.

According to the plan announced early last month, the eight OPEC+ member countries will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in October 2025. This move, along with Iraq resuming oil exports of 150,000 - 160,000 barrels per day from the Kurdistan region via Türkiye after a more than two-year hiatus, and this figure could increase to 230,000 barrels per day, raised concerns about oversupply.

In addition to supply factors, oil prices are also affected by geopolitical tensions, especially the conflict in Ukraine, as well as developments in the Gaza Strip and the possibility of restoring trade through the Suez Canal.

Analysts say OPEC+ supply could rise further, with global crude refinery operations slowing due to maintenance and seasonal demand declines in coming months accelerating oil storage in the US and elsewhere.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on October 1 that the country's crude oil, gasoline and distillate inventories increased last week due to reduced refining activity and demand.

September marked a turning point, with the oil market now facing the risk of significant oversupply in the fourth quarter of 2025 and into next year, JPMorgan analysts said.

Meanwhile, finance ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) leading industrialized nations said on October 1 that they would take measures to increase pressure on Russia by targeting countries that continue to increase oil purchases from the country.

According to statistics, Brent oil prices have decreased by about 10.5% since the beginning of 2025, due to increased production from OPEC+ and uncertain global demand due to the impact of US trade policy.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/gia-dau-chau-a-huong-toi-tuan-giam-manh-nhat-trong-3-thang-20251003150332796.htm