GDP in the first quarter of 2023 increased by only 3.32%.

At the press conference announcing the socio-economic statistics for the first quarter of 2023 on March 29th, Ms. Nguyen Thi Huong stated that the first quarter of 2023 unfolded against a backdrop of continued complex and unstable global economic fluctuations, such as global inflation, which, although cooling down, remained high; the slow recovery and decline in consumer demand from major trading partners. Particularly noteworthy is the recent instability of some banks in the US and Europe, affecting global confidence in the banking system, while central banks continued to raise interest rates and implement further monetary tightening policies… International organizations offered varying assessments of global economic growth in 2023 but unanimously predicted a growth rate 0.5 to 1.2 percentage points lower than in 2022. In recent reports, the World Bank (WB) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDESA) have issued more pessimistic forecasts for global economic growth in 2023. The WB estimates global growth at only 1.7%, 1.3 percentage points lower than its June 2022 forecast. UNDESA estimates global economic growth at only 1.9%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to its June 2022 forecast. “This shows that the global context is very difficult and will impact Vietnam’s economic growth rate,” Ms. Huong commented.

Representatives from the General Statistics Office answered questions from the press.

Against this backdrop of difficulties, GDP in the first quarter of 2023, according to estimates from the General Statistics Office, increased by only 3.32% compared to the same period last year, the second lowest rate in the 2011-2023 period. Notably, in the industrial and construction sectors, production in some key industries declined due to high input costs and a sharp decrease in the number of orders.

The value added of industrial sectors in the first quarter of 2023 decreased by 0.82% compared to the same period last year, the deepest decline for the same period in the 2011-2023 timeframe, reducing the overall value added growth of the entire economy by 0.28 percentage points. "The reasons for this are a 0.37% decrease in the manufacturing industry, contributing 0.1 percentage point to the overall decline; a 5.6% decrease in the mining industry (a 0.5% decrease in coal production and a 6% decrease in crude oil production), contributing 0.2 percentage points; and a 0.32% decrease in the electricity production and distribution industry, contributing 0.01 percentage points. The construction industry, however, increased by 1.95%, only slightly higher than the 0.28% and 1.41% growth rates of the same periods in 2011 and 2012 during the 2011-2023 period, contributing 0.12 percentage points," the General Statistics Office stated. The service sector in Q1 2023 clearly showed recovery thanks to the effectiveness of policies stimulating domestic consumption, the reopening of the economy from March 15, 2022, when the Covid-19 pandemic was controlled, and the intensified promotion and advertising of Vietnamese tourism to countries around the world. The contribution of several service sectors to the overall increase in added value in Q1 2023 was quite significant: Accommodation and food services increased by 25.98% compared to the same period last year, contributing 0.64 percentage points; wholesale and retail trade increased by 8.09%, contributing 0.85 percentage points; financial, banking and insurance activities increased by 7.65%, contributing 0.45 percentage points; transportation and warehousing increased by 6.85%, contributing 0.43 percentage points; The information and communication sector increased by 1.5%, contributing 0.1 percentage points. Notably, the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of provinces and centrally-administered cities in the first quarter of 2023 increased in 58 localities and decreased in 5 localities nationwide compared to the same period last year. In particular, some localities experienced quite sharp declines such as Ba Ria - Vung Tau (down 4.75%), Quang Nam (down 10.88%), and Bac Ninh (down 11.85%).