World coffee prices fell across the board due to pressure from the new crop harvest and sales in Brazil. Arabica coffee prices fell sharply due to pressure from the new crop in New York, which continued to weigh on the market, as Brazil, the world's leading coffee producer and exporter, has begun harvesting this year's new crop. The decline on the London exchange was quite small.
Meanwhile, a weaker Real encouraged Brazilians to boost coffee exports after futures markets closed for a holiday, and the USDX regained strength after the U.S. government 's debt ceiling deal with the opposition made significant progress.
According to Meteorologia, dry weather last week in the main arabica coffee growing regions in southern Brazil helped farmers speed up the new crop harvest as coffee cherries ripened faster.
At the source of Vietnam, the General Statistics Office of Vietnam estimated that coffee exports in May reached 2.75 million bags, up 17.94% over the same period last year, also contributing to the decline in London coffee futures prices when funds and speculators balanced their positions and took short-term profits.
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| Domestic coffee prices today, May 31, decreased by 200 - 300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Getty Images) |
At the end of the first trading session of this week (May 30) on the international floor, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London floor decreased. The price of robusta coffee futures for July 2023 delivery decreased by 12 USD, trading at 2,562 USD/ton. The price of September delivery decreased by 8 USD, trading at 2,520 USD/ton. Average trading volume.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange continued to fall. The July 2023 delivery contract fell sharply by 4.5 cents, trading at 177.1 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the September 2023 delivery contract fell by 4.7 cents, to 174.85 cents/lb. Trading volume increased sharply.
As of Friday, May 26, ICE-London certified and tracked robusta coffee inventories fell by 960 tonnes, or 1.15%, from a week earlier, to a registered 81,850 tonnes (equivalent to 1,364,167 60-kg bags).
Domestic coffee prices today, May 31, decreased by 200 - 300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.
Unit: VND/kg. (Source: Giacaphe.com) |
The US dollar was steady at the start of the week as the US economic recovery raised expectations that the Federal Reserve would continue to raise interest rates, while the market welcomed news of a debt ceiling deal that eased the risk sentiment of a crisis.
According to technical analysis, the indicators are giving neutral signals, the price trend is not clear. In the short term, robusta coffee prices are expected to fluctuate and accumulate within the range of 2530 - 2600.
Robusta coffee prices need to break through the psychological barrier of 2,600 and stay above this level to have a chance to recover. On the contrary, the price range of 2495 - 2500 is the near support zone of robusta coffee. If robusta loses this price range, it can establish a downtrend.
Meanwhile, Arabica coffee prices are under pressure from Brazil's abundant coffee supply in the new crop. Technical indicators show that the downward momentum is still there. In the short term, Arabica coffee prices are expected to fluctuate and accumulate within the range of 180 - 185. Arabica coffee prices need to touch and maintain above 185 to have a chance to recover. On the contrary, if the 180 base is lost, it may trigger strong selling pressure.
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