World coffee prices were mixed at the end of the week, domestic prices reached a new peak, could prices still go up?

According to the General Statistics Office of Vietnam, coffee exports in February only reached 160,000 tons, down nearly 20% compared to the same period last year, causing the global consumer market to worry about supply shortages, in the context of inventory remaining at a record low since 2014.

World coffee prices moved in opposite directions in the closing session this week, robusta coffee prices increased, while arabica prices decreased.

At the end of the week, domestic coffee prices exceeded 85,000 VND/kg for the first time.

According to TG&VN, at the end of the trading session on March 1, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London continued to increase well, the delivery term for May 2024 increased by 48 USD, trading at 3,143 USD/ton. The delivery term for July 2024 increased by 31 USD, trading at 3,057 USD/ton. The average trading volume was high.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange decreased, with the May 2024 delivery period decreasing by 1.05 cents, trading at 183.30 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the July 2024 delivery period decreased by 1.30 cents, trading at 181.40 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.

Giá cà phê hôm nay 20/10/2023: Giá cà phê. (Nguồn: atticacoffee)

Domestic coffee prices this weekend (March 2) increased by 600 - 700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: atticacoffee)

Global robusta demand remains high amid signs of tightening supplies, supporting London coffee futures to continue their upward trend. Robusta prices have recovered as supplies from major producers in Southeast Asia remain sky-high.

Notably, Vietnam's coffee exports in February were estimated at only 160,000 tons, down nearly 20% compared to the same period last year. The Vietnam Institute of Hydrometeorology continued to warn that the El Nino weather phenomenon is likely to bring dry weather, making this year's dry season in Vietnam's main coffee growing regions even more severe, raising concerns about supply shortages. ICE-Europe inventories remain at low levels since 2014.

Meanwhile, the New York floor was flooded with red information with information about Honduras' February export report increased by more than 26% compared to the same period to 932,678 bags, putting pressure on New York futures prices. Honduras is currently the largest producer of high-quality washed arabica coffee in Central America, long replacing Colombia as the main supplier on the ICE – New York floor.

Domestic coffee prices this weekend ( March 2) increased by 600 - 700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	24,440	- 10
DAK LAK	85,300	+600
LAM DONG	84,600	+600
GIA LAI	85,200	+700
DAK NONG	85,400	+700

Unit: VND/kg.

(Source: Giacaphe.com)

Currently, the price of coffee in the domestic market has reached a historical peak when it exceeded 85,000 VND/kg. Compared to the same period last year, the amount of coffee exported increased by only 16.7% but the turnover increased by 66.8%. Accordingly, the average price of coffee exported reached nearly 3,100 USD/ton, an increase of nearly 43% compared to the same period last year.

With this situation in 2024, experts predict that coffee exports could reach 4.5 - 5 billion USD. This will be a new record year for Vietnam's coffee export turnover. The market supply is lacking, so Vietnam is almost "alone in the market".

According to experts, the 2022-2023 crop year has ended and supplies are almost depleted. Therefore, prices will increase as purchasing power increases.

One of the bright spots of the coffee market in early 2024 is the price breakthrough. The average export price of coffee in the first month of 2024 reached 3,050 USD/ton, up 5.6% over the previous month and 39.6% over the same period last year.

Coffee prices remain high due to high global demand and limited supply. This is a great opportunity for Vietnamese coffee. For sustainable exports, the coffee industry needs to continue restructuring, promote deep processing, and create a strong brand for Vietnamese coffee in the world market.

Source