World coffee prices moved in opposite directions in the closing session this week, with robusta coffee prices increasing while arabica prices decreased.
At the end of the week, domestic coffee prices exceeded 85,000 VND/kg for the first time.
According to TG&VN, at the end of the trading session on March 1, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London continued to increase well, the delivery term for May 2024 increased by 48 USD, trading at 3,143 USD/ton. The delivery term for July 2024 increased by 31 USD, trading at 3,057 USD/ton. The average trading volume was high.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange decreased, with the May 2024 delivery term down 1.05 cents, trading at 183.30 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the July 2024 delivery term down 1.30 cents, trading at 181.40 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.
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| Domestic coffee prices this weekend (March 2) increased by 600 - 700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: atticacoffee) |
Global robusta demand remains high amid signs of tightening supplies, supporting London coffee futures to continue their upward trend. Robusta prices have recovered as supplies from major producers in Southeast Asia remain sky-high.
Notably, Vietnam's coffee exports in February were estimated at only 160,000 tons, down nearly 20% year-on-year. The Vietnam Institute of Hydrometeorology continued to warn that the El Nino weather phenomenon is likely to bring drought, making this year's dry season in Vietnam's main coffee growing regions even more severe, fueling concerns about supply shortages. ICE-Europe inventories have remained at their lowest level since 2014.
Meanwhile, the New York floor was flooded with red information as Honduras reported February exports increased by more than 26% compared to the same period last year to 932,678 bags, putting pressure on New York futures prices. Honduras is currently the largest producer of high-quality washed arabica coffee in Central America, having long replaced Colombia as the main supplier on the ICE – New York floor.
Domestic coffee prices this weekend ( March 2) increased by 600 - 700 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.
Unit: VND/kg. (Source: Giacaphe.com) |
Currently, the price of coffee in the domestic market has reached a historical peak when it exceeded 85,000 VND/kg. Compared to the same period last year, the amount of exported coffee increased by only 16.7% but the turnover increased by 66.8%. Accordingly, the average export price of coffee reached nearly 3,100 USD/ton, an increase of nearly 43% compared to the same period last year.
With this situation, experts predict that coffee exports could reach 4.5 - 5 billion USD in 2024. This will be a new record year for Vietnam's coffee export turnover. The market supply is lacking, so Vietnam is almost "alone in the market".
According to experts, the 2022-2023 crop year has ended and people are almost out of stock. Therefore, prices will increase as purchasing power increases.
One of the bright spots of the coffee market in early 2024 is the price breakthrough. The average export price of coffee in the first month of 2024 reached 3,050 USD/ton, up 5.6% over the previous month and up 39.6% over the same period last year.
Coffee prices remain high due to high global demand and limited supply. This is a great opportunity for Vietnamese coffee. For sustainable exports, the coffee industry needs to continue restructuring, promote deep processing, and create a strong brand for Vietnamese coffee in the world market.
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