Global coffee prices continued to fall, with futures markets returning to a negative trend due to selling pressure from Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer and exporter. Favorable weather conditions for harvesting, with large coffee growing areas in southern Brazil dry, have supported farmers in harvesting the new crop.
Robusta Conilon coffee is now in the final stages of the season with the expectation that it will soon be released to the market, contributing to reducing concerns about supply shortages from major robusta producing countries in Southeast Asia, such as Vietnam, Indonesia... Meanwhile, the sharp increase in the Real exchange rate has not prevented Brazilian farmers from boosting coffee exports due to the pressure of a bumper crop this year.
Preliminary data from the General Department of Vietnam Customs showed that coffee exports in June reached more than 140,607 tons, lower than the initial estimate of about 150 thousand tons.
The ICE – London inventory report on July 12 decreased by another 2,500 tons, or 4.40% compared to the previous day, down to 54,360 tons, which could not stop the current negative price trend.
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| Domestic coffee prices today, July 13, continued to decrease by 600 - 900 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: YouTube) |
At the end of the trading session on July 12, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London continued to decrease. The price of robusta coffee futures for September 2023 delivery decreased by 36 USD, trading at 2,534 USD/ton. The price of November delivery decreased by 22 USD, trading at 2,400 USD/ton. Average trading volume.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange for September 2023 delivery decreased by 0.55 cents, trading at 157.00 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2023 delivery decreased by 0.55 cents, trading at 156.45 cents/lb. Trading volume is high on average.
Domestic coffee prices today, July 13, continued to decrease by 600 - 900 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.
Unit: VND/kg. (Source: Giacaphe.com) |
The US dollar fell to a two-month low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday after Federal Reserve officials signaled that the central bank was nearing the end of its tightening cycle.
Meanwhile, the US Department of Labor released a report on July 12 showing that the consumer price index (CPI) in the country in June increased by 0.2% compared to the previous month and increased by 3% compared to the same period last year, the lowest increase since March 2021.
The US dollar index and US government bond yields fell after data showed lower-than-expected inflation, which also fueled market bets the Fed will soon end its rate-hike cycle.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said U.S. inflation remained high despite cooling in June, reiterating the Fed's commitment to bringing inflation back to target.
In the robusta coffee market, technical indicators are showing that the downward momentum is still there. In the short term, robusta coffee prices are expected to fluctuate and accumulate within the range of 2545 - 2610. Robusta prices need to increase above 2600 and maintain above this price level to find an opportunity to increase and recover. However, if they fail to do so, robusta coffee is likely to decrease to the support zone near 2540 - 2545.
In the Arabica market, according to technical analysis, technical indicators all give neutral signals, the price trend is not clear. It is expected that in the short term, the price may fluctuate and accumulate within the range of 155.5 - 160.
Arabica coffee needs to break above the MA10 at 160 and stay above this level to have a chance to recover. However, if Arabica coffee loses the support zone near 155 – 155.5, a downtrend may be established.
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