Global coffee prices were mixed, with robusta recovering slightly while arabica fell for the third consecutive session. Robusta’s slight increase was due to inventory on the London exchange falling to a six-week low and limited supply from Vietnam depleting amid high global demand for robusta. Meanwhile, inventory on the ICE New York exchange fell to its lowest level in more than six and a half months to 550,354 bags as of June 12.
Arabica supplies are showing signs of temporary growth as weather conditions allow Brazil’s coffee harvest to pick up. Pressure on the arabica harvest has been building as reports of dry weather in major growing regions in Brazil have helped ripen the cherries, which will help farmers accelerate the new crop with forecasts of higher output in many arabica-producing countries in Central and South America.
Meanwhile, options expiration pressure continues to occur in most markets, especially coffee derivatives markets which are in an “overbought” state.
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| Domestic coffee prices today, June 14, increased by 200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: ohman.vn) |
At the end of the trading session on June 13, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange increased slightly. The price of robusta coffee futures for July 2023 delivery increased by 7 USD, trading at 2,713 USD/ton. The price of September delivery increased by 8 USD, trading at 2,689 USD/ton. The average trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange continued to decline. The July 2023 delivery contract fell 2.8 cents, trading at 182.75 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the September 2023 delivery contract fell 2.8 cents, to 178.7 cents/lb. Trading volume continued to increase.
Domestic coffee prices today, June 14, increased by 200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.
Unit: VND/kg. (Source: Giacaphe.com) |
Global financial markets are awaiting the results of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) ongoing monetary policy meeting, which will be announced later today (June 14), with speculation that current interest rates will be maintained.
The USDX's decline has helped most commodity markets regain green due to stronger buying from the world's top commodity consumer - China.
According to the technical analysis of the robusta market, the indicators are showing that the bullish momentum is still there. The RSI is near the overbought zone at 65.93%, so there is a possibility that there will be a downward correction during the session. It is expected that in the short term, the price of robusta coffee will fluctuate and accumulate within the range of 2680 - 2750. The nearest support price zone of the price is 2655 - 2660. If this price zone is lost, robusta coffee can establish a downward trend again.
In the Arabica market, technical indicators are showing that the bullish momentum is still there. In the short term, Arabica coffee prices are expected to fluctuate and accumulate within the range of 182.5 - 190. Arabica coffee prices need to surpass 190 and close at this price to have the momentum to increase to explore the psychological resistance level of 200. However, if the level of 182.5 is lost, a downtrend may be established.
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