In the context of continuously rising coffee prices, many industry insiders predict that Vietnam's export turnover of this item this year could exceed the 6 billion USD mark, even reaching 7 billion USD.
Coffee price today 3/4/2025
Domestic coffee prices today, March 4, turned around and increased sharply by 3,000 VND/kg, bringing the transaction price back to the record price range of 131,000 - 133,000 VND/kg.
Global coffee prices rose sharply on both the London and New York derivatives exchanges, after a series of consecutive declines last week, causing robusta to increase by 156 USD/ton and arabica to increase by 13.6 cents/lb. Low inventories in Brazil are believed to be the main reason, immediately pushing coffee prices to recover strongly. The weakening USD is also believed to be the reason for promoting the recovery of coffee.
Coffee farmers in Brazil, hit by one of the worst droughts in history, have sold nearly all their beans months before the new harvest begins as global prices have nearly doubled to a 14-month high, Reuters reported. Brazilian inventories were estimated to be at their lowest level in February, still far from the start of the new crop.
Brazil's next harvest begins in July, and according to the forecast of the Brazilian government agency Conab, the country's coffee output will be the lowest in the past three seasons, only about 60 million bags (each bag weighs 60 kg), down 4.4% compared to the previous season.
Farmers in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, have tapped into their stockpiles to reap record exports in 2024. Meanwhile, exports from Vietnam, the top robusta supplier, have fallen 17.2% in volume compared to 2023 due to bad weather.
Regarding consumption demand, the European and American markets increased imports due to the prolonged demand for coffee consumption in the winter. Large coffee chains (Starbucks, Nestlé, JDE Peet's, ...) increased purchases to stock up on raw materials due to concerns about continued price increases. Consumers switched to robusta coffee because arabica was too expensive, pushing robusta prices to record highs. The weakening USD also made coffee more attractive to international investors. Meanwhile, hedge funds increased purchases due to concerns about supply, creating a wave of speculation that pushed prices higher.
In addition, difficulties in transportation are also contributing to the sharp increase in coffee prices, increasing logistics costs due to container shortages and high freight rates; Tensions in the Red Sea affect the shipping route from Asia to Europe, causing delays in coffee deliveries from Vietnam.
Experts say that the combination of reduced supply, increased demand, supportive financial factors and transportation issues caused coffee prices to reverse and increase sharply on March 4. If this situation continues, coffee prices may maintain an upward trend in the short term.
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| Domestic coffee prices today, March 4, turned to increase sharply by 2,800 - 3,000 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Kitco) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the first trading session of the week (March 3), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in May 2025 increased sharply by 156 USD, trading at 5,486 USD/ton. The delivery in July 2025 increased by 154 USD, trading at 5,444 USD/ton. The average trading volume was high.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange, the delivery date in May 2025 increased sharply by 13.60 cents, trading at 386.65 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the delivery date in July 2025 increased by 13.45 cents, trading at 378.20 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.
Domestic coffee prices today, March 4, turned to increase sharply by 2,800 - 3,000 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
Prices for arabica coffee, the most common bean used in roasted coffee, have surged 70% in 2024 and nearly 20% since the start of this year, hitting a record high above $4.30/lb on Feb. 11.
Prices for robusta, the second most popular bean, often used in instant coffee, have risen 72% in 2024 and peaked at $5,847 a tonne on Feb. 12.
Global coffee demand in 2025 is expected to increase by about 5.1 million bags to 168.1 million bags, with most of the increase coming from the European Union (EU), the United States and China.
China, once known for its longstanding tea culture, is making a dramatic shift to coffee consumption. In recent years, the country’s coffee consumption has grown at an astonishing rate, leading to a surge in import demand.
According to statistics from the Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association (Vicofa), in January 2025, Vietnam exported 154,635 tons of coffee, with export turnover reaching 799.48 million USD.
In 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports will be the largest to the German market, accounting for 11.6% of the total volume and 10.7% of the total coffee export turnover of the country, reaching 155,703 tons, equivalent to 602.89 million USD, priced at 3,872 USD/ton, down 20.6% in volume, but up 31.6% in turnover and up 65.8% in price compared to 2023; in December 2024 alone, exports reached 13,492 tons, equivalent to 67.29 million USD, priced at 4,987 USD/ton, up sharply by 134.8% in volume, up 127.7% in turnover but down 3% in price compared to November 2024.
In 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment targets total coffee output at 1.98 million tons, up slightly from last year. Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture forecasts that Vietnam's coffee exports will increase by 1.8 million bags to 24.4 million bags thanks to improved supply.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-432025-gia-ca-phe-trong-nuoc-tang-manh-me-the-gioi-bat-dau-khan-hang-tu-bay-gio-xuat-khau-co-the-dat-7-ty-usd-306294.html
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