International container freight rates are forecast to continue to fluctuate in 2025. Although a sharp increase is unlikely, freight rates may still increase at certain times.
The comment was made by a representative of the Ho Chi Minh City Logistics Association (HLA) at the 3rd Ho Chi Minh City Logistics Forum, which took place on the afternoon of November 15.
According to Ms. Vo Thi Phuong Lan, Vice President of the Ho Chi Minh City Logistics Association, global container freight rates as well as the route from Ho Chi Minh City to the West Coast of the United States or Europe have fluctuated greatly over the past year. Although it is unlikely to increase sharply in 2025, container freight rates may still increase at certain times, especially during peak seasons or when there are supply chain disruptions. However, fierce competition among shipping lines may help curb the rate hike.
Ms. Vo Thi Phuong Lan analyzed many factors that could impact the market in the coming time. Specifically, global transport capacity is forecast to increase by 8%, while demand only increases by 3%, helping to reduce the pressure on price fluctuations. Meanwhile, factors such as the Red Sea conflict, Panama Canal blockage, strikes at some seaports, etc. will continue to disrupt the supply chain and increase transportation costs.
“The emergence of the new shipping alliance (Gemini Cooperation) and the cooperation strategy of MSC will create significant changes in the shipping service network,” Ms. Lan analyzed, and also said that the US tax policy on Chinese goods and the trend of diversifying supply sources will impact the global trade model, bringing both opportunities and challenges to the container shipping market.
Faced with unpredictable fluctuations in international freight rates, experts note that businesses need to equip themselves with in-depth knowledge about building sustainable partnerships with shipping lines, optimizing transportation costs, and applying effective tools to prevent risks of freight rate fluctuations.
To respond, Ms. Vo Thi Phuong Lan recommends that businesses closely monitor the market and flexibly plan their transportation strategies. Optimize costs by digital transformation to reduce costs in supply chain management and help customers quickly calculate supply chain prices. Businesses also focus on cooperating with reputable logistics partners, diversifying import and export markets, and carefully studying and researching international logistics partners.
Regarding the transportation of e-commerce platforms, Mr. Phan Manh Ha, Director of External Relations of Shopee Vietnam, said that the platform considers logistics as a pillar, with the goal of both reducing transportation costs and improving customer experience; in which, working with partners to build supply packages (delivery) to diversify customer choices. Shopee studies the strengths of logistics service providers to have good cooperation options, because there are strong suppliers in remote areas, and suppliers are strong in delivering compact products.
With the strong development of the Vietnamese economy and especially Ho Chi Minh City, logistics infrastructure plays a key role in connecting and operating the supply chain effectively. Upgrading and optimizing the logistics infrastructure system is posing many challenges for Vietnamese enterprises, especially issues related to technology investment costs and high-quality human resources.
Mr. Pham Thanh Son, Director of Tan Cang Hiep Phuoc Joint Stock Company, acknowledged that in recent times, Vietnam and Ho Chi Minh City have issued many policies related to logistics, facilitating the exploitation and import and export of goods. Many infrastructure projects have been and are being implemented to help this sector develop strongly.
However, according to Mr. Son, many traffic bottlenecks have not been removed, causing difficulties in the city's logistics development. Currently, the connection within Ho Chi Minh City may be good, but the inter-regional connection with Binh Duong, Long An, and Dong Nai is still difficult. The city needs to speed up road infrastructure projects, the progress of investment in the above-planned logistics centers; at the same time, synchronously develop infrastructure, including traffic infrastructure and digital infrastructure... to develop the logistics industry.
Ho Chi Minh City currently has about 9,600 enterprises registered in the logistics service industry, accounting for 36.7% of logistics enterprises nationwide. The city has Tan Cang Cat Lai and Tan Cang Hiep Phuoc, accounting for more than 90% of the city's import and export volume, nearly 50% of the country's volume, contributing 20.5% to the city's budget. The city aims to develop logistics into a key service industry, making a positive contribution to production and business activities in the area.
Vice Chairman of Ho Chi Minh City People's Committee Vo Van Hoan said that, besides the advantages in the implementation process, the City has realized that this is a new industry, a synthesis of many industries and fields, so there are still many limitations in the development of the logistics industry such as logistics infrastructure, information technology application and human resource development. The City wants to listen to opinions from all parties, thereby helping the City deploy solutions, remove bottlenecks, support the development of the logistics industry, and promote potential and strengths.
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