How much longer will oil prices continue to fall?

Today's fuel prices (November 11, 2024): Despite the sharp drop in world oil prices during the weekend trading session, oil prices still rose by more than 1% over the past week.

Gasoline and diesel prices today, November 11, 2024

According to Oilprice at 5:00 AM on November 11, 2024 (Vietnam time), WTI crude oil was priced at $70.43 per barrel, down 2.74% (equivalent to a decrease of $1.98 per barrel).

WTI oil prices on the world market early morning of November 11, 2024 (Vietnam time)

Similarly, Brent crude oil prices stood at $73.9 per barrel, down 2.33% (equivalent to a decrease of $1.76 per barrel).

Brent crude oil prices on the world market early morning of November 11, 2024 (Vietnam time)

Brent crude oil prices surged more than 10% in early October before paring those gains by the end of the month. Strong supply and weak demand, particularly from China, kept prices in check, amid a shifting market assessment of risks to oil infrastructure in the Middle East.

Key risks to this forecast include the pace at which OPEC+ eases its production cut agreement, the outlook for global consumption growth, particularly in China, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Global oil demand growth continues to lose momentum. Global demand, projected to reach 103 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2024, is expected to increase by approximately 1 mb/d in 2025, a significant decrease from the 2 mb/d increase in 2023.

Global oil supply continues to increase. The expansion of global oil supply accelerated to 1.1 percent in the third quarter of 2024 (year-over-year). This increase was driven by rising production in advanced economies and Latin America and the Caribbean, as OPEC+ supply remained relatively stable during the same period. Next year, global oil supply is expected to exceed demand by approximately 1.2 mb/d per day.

If this expectation materializes, it would be the third largest surplus in recent oil market history, following the imbalances during the 2020 pandemic-related shutdowns and the 1998 oil price crash. This oversupply situation is further exacerbated by high levels of spare capacity, accounting for slightly more than 7 percent of current global production. The combined size of the oil surplus and spare capacity by 2025 – if realized – is likely to limit the impact of potentially increased geopolitical tensions on oil prices. Global growth and geopolitical tensions are key risks to the oil price outlook.

Domestic retail gasoline and diesel prices on November 11, 2024, are applied according to the adjustment made at 3 PM on November 7 by the Joint Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Industry and Trade.

Item	Price (VND/liter/kg)	Difference compared to the previous period
E5 RON 92 gasoline	19,744	+336
RON 95 gasoline	20,854	+351
Diesel	18,917	+769
Oil	19,294	+461
Fuel oil	16,394	-67

Specifically, the price of E5 RON 92 gasoline increased by 336 VND/liter, reaching 19,744 VND/liter; RON 95 gasoline increased by 351 VND/liter, reaching 20,854 VND/liter.

Diesel fuel 0.05S increased by 769 VND/liter, reaching 18,917 VND/liter; kerosene increased by 461 VND/liter, reaching 19,294 VND/liter; mazut 180CST 3.5S decreased by 67 VND/kg, down to 16,394 VND/kg.

Gasoline and diesel prices today, November 11, 2024. (Illustrative image)

During this price adjustment period, the Ministry of Industry and Trade - Ministry of Finance did not allocate or utilize the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund for E5RON92 gasoline, RON95 gasoline, diesel fuel, kerosene, and fuel oil.

Thus, from the beginning of 2024 until now, domestic gasoline prices have undergone 44 adjustments, including 21 decreases, 18 increases, and 6 changes.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/gia-xang-dau-hom-nay-11112024-gia-dau-con-giam-den-bao-gio-357994.html