Soybean prices weaken.

Báo Công thương•20/02/2025

At the close of trading, according to MXV, soybean prices were under pressure amid signs of positive weather changes in South America.

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) reported that the global raw materials market experienced relatively volatile and mixed trading yesterday. Positive weather conditions in South America put pressure on agricultural prices. Meanwhile, the energy market continued to be dominated by gains, with natural gas prices rising for the eighth consecutive session and Brent crude extending its gains for the third consecutive session. At closing, buying pressure supported a 0.2% increase in the MXV-Index to 2,376 points – its highest level in over nine months.

Thị trường hàng hóa ngày 20/2: Giá đậu tương suy yếu

MXV-Index

Soybean prices weaken amid weather pressure.

According to MXV, six out of seven agricultural commodities saw price declines in yesterday's trading session. Notably, soybean prices ended a three-session winning streak, falling more than 0.5% to $379 per ton. The market experienced relatively volatile trading, with slight buying pressure in the morning before reversing and closing in the red. According to MXV, soybean prices were pressured by improving weather conditions in South America.

Agricultural product price list

According to a report from World Weather, the weather in the region is currently quite favorable, with alternating rain and sunny days, creating favorable conditions for crops and harvesting in Argentina and southern Brazil. This also helps to accelerate harvesting in the central-western and south-central regions in a shorter timeframe.

However, the market still received support from positive trade developments. Taiwan (China) announced plans to purchase soybean meal and corn from the US to address its trade deficit. At the same time, US President Donald Trump is pursuing a more comprehensive trade agreement with China. Trump expressed interest in a deal that includes significant investments and commitments from China to purchase more US products. Currently, China is the largest buyer of US soybeans, so this information helped to stem the decline in prices.

The market for soybean meal and soybean oil also experienced mixed movements. Soybean meal prices rose slightly due to positive demand prospects from Taiwan and Thailand. Accordingly, the Thai animal feed industry is proposing a plan to purchase approximately $2.8 billion worth of agricultural products from the US annually, including 3 million tons of soybean meal and 4 million tons of corn. This move aims to narrow the $35 billion trade surplus and avoid the risk of tariffs being imposed on exports.

Natural gas prices rose for the eighth consecutive session.

The green color continued to dominate the energy market in yesterday's trading session. Natural gas was particularly noteworthy, closing up nearly 7% at $4.28/MMBtu – its highest level since January 2023 – as a cold front from the Arctic swept through, increasing heating demand and threatening supply due to the risk of production freezes.

According to Maxar's latest forecasting models, colder temperatures will prevail across the central and eastern United States until early March. Natural gas demand has surged, with current consumption at 122.9 Bcf/day, a 21% increase year-on-year.

On the supply side, U.S. dry gas production reached 106.1 Bcf/day, slightly higher than last year but still vulnerable to disruptions from severe weather. According to the latest report from the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA), gas inventories fell by 100 Bcf in the week ending February 7th, exceeding the expected decrease of 91 Bcf. U.S. natural gas inventories remain 2.8% below the five-year seasonal average, further tightening the market.

On the crude oil market, at the close of trading on February 19th, oil prices continued to rise. Brent crude rose slightly by $0.02, or approximately 0.3%, to $76.04 per barrel, while WTI crude increased by $0.40, or approximately 0.6%, to $72.25 per barrel.

Energy price list

According to MXV, drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure have significantly impacted market supply. Notably, oil flow through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) – the main crude oil export route from Kazakhstan – has dropped by 30-40% following an attack on a pumping station.

In the U.S., the North Dakota Pipeline Authority estimates that production in the state will decrease by up to 150,000 barrels per day. Cold weather conditions also pushed natural gas prices up 6.81% to $4.28 per MMBtu.

In addition, according to the latest information, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies such as Russia and Kazakhstan may decide to postpone their plan to increase supply in April.

The market is currently awaiting US oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the EIA trading group today and tomorrow.

Prices of some other goods