Gold price "races" with USD, difficult to break through for this reason; forecast market price increase due to optimistic sentiment?

Gold prices today, July 17, 2023, started the new week with optimism continuing to return to the market. But while gold prices could move higher in trading this week, neither Wall Street analysts nor Main Street retail investors expect a major breakout.

LIVE UPDATE TABLE OF GOLD PRICE TODAY 7/17 and EXCHANGE RATE TODAY 7/17

1. PNJ - Updated: 07/17/2023 01:30 - Website supply time - ▼ / ▲ Compared to yesterday.
Type	Buy	Sell
HCMC - PNJ	56,000	57,100
HCMC - SJC	66,750	67,300
Hanoi - PNJ	56,000	57,100
Hanoi - SJC	66,750	67,300
Da Nang - PNJ	56,000	57,100
Da Nang - SJC	66,750	67,300
Western Region - PNJ	56,000	57,100
Western Region - SJC	66,600	67,200
Jewelry gold price - PNJ rings (24K)	56,000	57,000
Jewelry Gold Price - 24K Jewelry	55,800	56,600
Jewelry Gold Price - 18K Jewelry	41,200	42,600
Jewelry Gold Price - 14K Jewelry	31,860	33,260
Jewelry Gold Price - 10K Jewelry	22,300	23,700

The world gold price closed last week's trading session (July 14) at $1,954.30/ounce, down $5.7 compared to the previous trading session. Optimism returned to the gold market, but analysts warned of resistance at $1,980/ounce. The August gold futures price last traded at $1,964.30/ounce, up 1.7% for the week. Gold is witnessing its best weekly performance since April.

Gold ended the week with a small gain, in line with the decline in the US dollar. There is no doubt that gold had a phenomenal week of gains after the US released its CPI for last month earlier this week. However, market participants should be paying close attention to the gains or losses as they relate to the strength or weakness of the US dollar. The US dollar is the biggest influencer of the precious metal’s daily price movements.

The US dollar has fallen significantly over the past week. After 6 consecutive days of decline, the US dollar has slightly improved when last weekend recorded a closing price above the opening price and higher than the previous day's closing price, after hitting the lowest bottom of this correction and the lowest point since April 2022.

Giá vàng hôm nay 29/1. (Nguồn: Shutterstock)

Gold price today July 17, 2023: Gold price 'races' with USD, difficult to break through for this reason; forecast gold price to increase this week due to optimistic sentiment? (Source: Shutterstock)

Domestic gold prices last weekend stood firm at over VND67 million/tael sold. Last week, domestic gold prices fluctuated in opposite directions in the morning trading session of the first week (July 10), then continuously increased from the morning of July 11 to 13, before decreasing in the opposite direction in the morning of July 14 until the end of the week.

Domestic and world gold prices ended the weekend trading session with a downward trend, in the context that analysts said gold prices are being held back by many factors from bond yields and the value of the USD.

Summary of SJC gold prices at major domestic trading brands at the closing time of last weekend's trading session (July 15).

Saigon Jewelry Company listed the price of SJC gold at 66.65 - 67.27 million VND/tael.

Doji Group currently lists the price of SJC gold at: 66.70 - 67.35 million VND/tael.

Phu Quy Group listed at: 66.45 - 67.05 million VND/tael.

PNJ system listed at: 66.70 - 67.20 million VND/tael.

SJC gold price at Bao Tin Minh Chau is listed at: 66.77 - 67.33 million VND/tael; Rong Thang Long gold brand is traded at 55.88 - 56.73 million VND/tael; jewelry gold price is traded at 55.35 - 56.55 million VND/tael.

Gold price forecast this week?

Of the 20 Wall Street analysts who participated in the Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey this week, nine analysts, or 45%, see higher prices for gold, while the same number of analysts see sideways prices for the week. Meanwhile, two analysts, or 10%, see lower prices for gold in the near term.

Meanwhile, 592 votes were cast in online polls. Of these, 363 retail investors (61%) predicted gold would rise; another 148 (25%) predicted lower prices; while 81 voters (14%), were neutral in the near term.

After weeks of drifting sentiment and lackluster interest, retail investors are once again considering investing in gold and precious metals, according to the latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey. At the same time, market analysts are slightly more cautious on gold ahead of next week.

While weak inflation data will continue to support gold prices, there are good reasons for investors to be cautious at these levels, said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Many investors will continue to sit on the sidelines, waiting for the Federal Reserve to signal that it is ready to stop raising interest rates, the expert added. However, he noted that there is not enough information yet to give a definitive answer on interest rates.

“The Fed may be reluctant to back down from its inflation war for now. That could keep bond yields higher and limit gold’s move,” said Daniel Pavilonis. However, once the Fed is done raising rates, gold could easily take off.

“Gold still looks attractive at these levels because, in a neutral rate environment, there are other factors that can drive gold prices. Once the Fed is done raising rates, investors will turn to gold as a safe haven or geopolitical hedge.

Meanwhile, many analysts are bullish on gold as the dollar suffers its worst sell-off since November. The USDX is looking to end the week below 100, down more than 2.2%. However, analysts also note that gold is not getting much benefit from the dollar's collapse.

Bullish sentiment among retail investors has risen to a one-month high. But even Main Street remains skeptical that the market is ready to break out — seeing gold prices end the week around $1,979 an ounce.

James Stanley, chief market strategist at StoneX , said he sees gold testing resistance at $1,980 in the near term. “Connecting to what I saw last week, the bulls finally took that next step to break above resistance after support held at $1,900.”

“I wouldn’t call the bulls clear at this point, but the ball is in their court now and the big question is how aggressively the sellers react to a test of resistance at 1,980 or 2,000.”

However, not all analysts are bullish on gold prices this week. Darin Newsom, senior market strategist at Barchart.com , said that the gold market looks a bit tight. "Although the intermediate trend is up on the weekly chart of August gold, the contract has moved far enough, fast enough to push its daily chart into overbought territory. Gold could see a few days of pressure starting next week, but I don't think there will be a big drop."

"The USDX remains in a long-term downtrend and that alone could provide fundamental support for gold," forecast expert Darin Newsom.

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