Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz: A worst-case scenario.

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is entering what is considered its most dangerous phase as global oil inventories decline rapidly, oil shipping continues to be disrupted, and pressure spreads throughout the entire energy supply chain...

Ships transporting goods in the Strait of Hormuz. (Photo: THX/VNA)

The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is entering what is considered its most dangerous phase as global oil inventories rapidly decline, seaborne oil shipments continue to be disrupted, and pressure spreads throughout the entire energy supply chain. The International Energy Agency (IEA) fears the world may only be able to hold out much longer as countries are releasing their oil reserves at record rates.

The global oil market is facing a severe supply shortage due to disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the IEA, more than 14 million barrels of oil per day are currently stalled, causing a record drop in global oil reserves. In March and April alone, world oil reserves fell by approximately 250 million barrels. This unprecedented supply shock is forcing many countries to release oil from their strategic reserves to stabilize the market. However, the IEA warns that even if governments worldwide release strategic reserves, the supply of commercially viable oil will remain severely insufficient due to disruptions in the Gulf region. According to IEA Director-General Fatih Birol, the world may only be able to hold out for a few more weeks.

Faced with a global energy crisis, the IEA coordinated the release of 426 million barrels of oil from the emergency reserves of 32 member countries, with approximately 164 million barrels already used. The crisis has spread to the refining sector, with forecasts suggesting global refining output in the second quarter of 2026 could fall by around 4.5 million barrels per day due to infrastructure damage, export restrictions, and a shortage of crude oil for refineries. This could lead to shortages first in commodities such as diesel, jet fuel, gasoline, and marine fuels, impacting global food prices and logistics costs.

More concerning is the supply shortage caused by oil being "stuck" in the shipping system due to security risks, high insurance costs, and ships having to travel longer routes. According to analysts, oil on ships offshore has no operational value compared to oil stored near refineries. The current problem is not just about oil prices or the risk of military conflict between the US and Iran, but also a paradox: oil inventories have sharply decreased while the amount of oil stored on ships at sea has increased. The latest IEA report indicates that onshore oil storage decreased by 170 million barrels in April, while offshore oil storage increased by 53 million barrels.

Analysts believe the global energy market is currently being simultaneously impacted by geopolitical risks, the production policies of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+), and the shift towards clean energy. The "black gold" market is further dampened by the significant drop in OPEC+ production. In April, the alliance's output fell by 830,000 barrels per day to 34.1 million barrels per day. Notably, eight key countries in the group, including Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), produced 8.8 million barrels per day less than their targets. Although the organization reassured that global oil supply and demand are likely to remain relatively balanced in the medium term, the IEA forecasts that the market could face a deficit of approximately 1.78 million barrels per day in 2026 if Middle Eastern supply is not fully restored.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is having a widespread impact, completely altering the global energy consumption landscape and forcing countries to confront the urgent issue of energy security. The rapidly shrinking reserve buffer amidst prolonged supply disruptions will lead to sharp price increases in the near future. Experts warn that if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted and inventories in various countries continue to decline at the current rate, the oil market could become extremely volatile by the end of June. In a worst-case scenario, oil prices could continue to climb. This summer, fuel demand is typically high, and oil prices are expected to remain highly volatile.

ANH THU

Source: https://nhandan.vn/khung-hoang-tai-eo-bien-hormuz-kich-ban-xau-post964141.html