Reporting to the Government on two new economic growth scenarios for 2025; in which, it is recommended to strive to achieve scenario 2 (growth of 8.3 - 8.5%), the leaders of the Ministry of Finance also emphasized that, along with exploiting market opportunities to promote consumption and export, investment is the main driving force, with much room to further promote, helping the economy achieve a higher growth rate in the second half of 2025.
According to Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, Director of the Institute for Brand and Competitiveness Strategy Research, public investment is becoming the main driving force for economic growth in the context of many other sectors facing difficulties. For example, in the first half of the year, disbursement of public investment capital reached more than VND 268,100 billion, a sharp increase compared to the same period in both absolute numbers and ratios, showing a clear change in implementation. Many key projects such as highways, airports, and beltways are currently being accelerated, even reaching the finish line early.
“Well-implemented projects not only bring direct efficiency but also create great spillover effects on the entire economy, from strengthening the confidence of the private sector, attracting FDI to improving Vietnam's investment and business environment,” said Mr. Thanh.
Dr. Le Duy Binh, Director of Economica Vietnam, believes that from now until the end of the year, domestic consumption demand will grow strongly, contributing to promoting the domestic market. However, the Government also needs to have specific solutions to stimulate domestic consumption by increasing people's disposable income.
In addition, another important resource that will contribute positively to GDP growth is private investment. "When private investment grows strongly in 2025, the GDP growth target of 8.3 - 8.5% can be achieved. Therefore, it is necessary to remove difficulties in projects to stimulate the development of this sector," said Mr. Binh.
The Ministry of Finance also affirmed: How to implement growth scenarios depends on the effectiveness of implementing policies and solutions, especially in mobilizing and using resources for growth. Therefore, the most important task now is to mobilize and effectively use resources for growth. In addition to public investment capital, with the important task of disbursing all these resources, how to mobilize private investment capital, foreign capital... is also a difficult problem to solve.
Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thanh, Fulbright University Vietnam, commented: With a growth rate of 7.52% in the first 6 months of the year, many economic experts expect the growth rate to be maintained or even higher in the second half of the year. However, the reality may not be so optimistic even though there are still growth drivers such as: public investment, credit and expectations for the private sector.
At the same time, exports, which were the main driving force in the first half of the year, are showing signs of slowing down as global growth continues to weaken and tariff-related risks remain unanswered. At the same time, external demand is slowing down while domestic demand has yet to really recover strongly.
Regarding fiscal and monetary policy, the Institute of Training and Research, Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam (BIDV) stated that fiscal policy continues to be operated in an open, focused and key direction. Accordingly, the Government continues to promote the disbursement of public investment capital, striving for a disbursement rate of 100% of the plan, completing 3,000 km of expressways and 1,000 km of coastal roads; implementing high-speed railway projects; enhancing the collection of tax arrears, connecting electronic invoices, striving for the State budget revenue in 2025 to increase by at least 20% compared to the estimate, saving 10% of regular expenditure to supplement development investment capital; striving to upgrade the stock market in 2025.
In addition, monetary policy is operated in a proactive and flexible manner, closely coordinated with fiscal policy; striving for annual credit growth of about 16%; by 2026, credit growth management will be more market-based and the allocation of credit growth targets for each credit institution will be eliminated...
Many solutions have been proposed by the head of the financial sector to promote economic growth; in which, one of the solutions emphasized by Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang is to urgently submit to the Government for promulgation and effective implementation of detailed regulations and instructions for the implementation of Laws and Resolutions passed by the National Assembly at the 9th Session.
At the same time, closely monitor the activities of the two-level government, the implementation of regulations on decentralization, delegation of power, and assignment of authority to promptly guide and completely remove local obstacles, ensure synchronization and connectivity in handling administrative procedures, and smoothly carry out tasks under the authority of the two levels...
Other solutions include promoting negotiations with the US; continuing to boost exports, developing harmonious and sustainable trade with other countries; perfecting institutions and laws, improving the investment and business environment; promoting traditional growth drivers of investment and domestic consumption and developing new growth drivers; maintaining macroeconomic stability to create a foundation for growth...
To promote consumption motivation for growth, economic expert Dr. Nguyen Bich Lam, former General Director of the General Statistics Office, said, "The Government and localities need to grasp trends, take advantage of opportunities, and maximize consumption promotion factors, which are especially important solutions for economic growth in 2025 and the following years."
Along with that, continue to implement solutions to stimulate consumption through tax and social security policies such as: reducing personal income tax; increasing taxable income and family deductions; increasing promotional campaigns with the goal of Vietnamese people prioritizing Vietnamese goods; The Government needs to control inflation, stabilize the macro economy, manage exchange rates and interest rates appropriately, avoid expected inflation, enhance consumer confidence, and promote spending.
Dr. Nguyen Bich Lam proposed that it is necessary to accelerate the process of economic restructuring, creating new superior economic models, such as digital economy, green economy, circular economy, in line with the development trend of the world economy, improving productivity, quality, efficiency, competitiveness and creating new momentum for development. Accordingly, economic restructuring needs to be carried out based on an assessment of the actual capacity, potential and development trends of each industry and field, placed in the development trend of the global economy. From there, there will be policies and solutions to focus human resources, material resources and financial resources to promote the development of economic sectors.
We must not be subjective, in the coming time the economy is forecast to continue to face more challenges; requiring all levels, sectors and localities to be more proactive, drastic and closely follow up to complete the assigned tasks", Minister Nguyen Van Thang emphasized.
Source: https://baolaocai.vn/activate-activate-economic-development-to-exceed-8-post878497.html
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