The global economy faces new challenges.

While the world is preoccupied with artificial intelligence (AI), green transition, and energy security, a silent but devastating risk is brewing within the global economy: a copper shortage. Unlike the hype surrounding oil or rare earth elements, this red metal plays a fundamental role in the electrification process.

Copper is produced at a factory in Zhejiang province, China. (Photo: THX/VNA)

According to the latest report from S&P Global, cited by a TTXVN correspondent in London, if not addressed promptly, the copper supply crisis could extend beyond the commodity market, becoming a systemic risk to global growth, technology, and the economic order .

According to S&P Global, the copper shortage could reach 10 million tons by 2040 – equivalent to nearly one-third of current global copper demand – if there is no significant expansion of supply.

Daniel Yergin, Vice President of S&P Global, noted that while electrification is driving the process forward, supply is becoming strained due to the rapid pace of this development.

He emphasized: "The question is whether copper will continue to play a driving role in progress, or will become a bottleneck to growth and innovation."

Copper prices have been consistently setting record highs since October 2025, amid a broad rally in industrial metals. Demand for copper is increasing, particularly in the construction of AI data centers, as well as in investments in power grid infrastructure to supply energy to these facilities and support the green transition.

According to analysts, a severe copper shortage could directly threaten the growth momentum of both sectors.

Copper prices have surged from just over $8,000 per ton in April 2025 to over $13,000 per ton, primarily due to concerns about potential supply disruptions at major mines and the impact of tariffs.

Meanwhile, gold and silver have been hitting new record highs in recent weeks. Nickel prices have also risen by more than 25% since mid-December 2025 and this month reached their highest level since mid-2024.

According to S&P Global, if current trends continue, global copper production will peak in 2030, then decline, while demand continues to rise. Many copper mines are now aging, with declining productivity, while finding and bringing new mines into production often takes many years and requires very large capital investments.

S&P Global forecasts global copper demand to surge from 28 million tonnes in 2025 to 42 million tonnes in 2040. Asia is expected to account for 60% of this demand increase during this period, driven by the rise of electric vehicles and grid upgrade programs aimed at expanding capacity and harnessing renewable energy .

Meanwhile, demand for copper for data centers – including AI and robotics – could increase from around 1.1 million tons in 2025 to 2.5 million tons in 2040.

The S&P Global report emphasizes that access to copper is a key condition for the AI ​​boom and the large-scale deployment of data centers.

As the development of AI is increasingly seen as a national security issue for the US and China, Carlos Pascual, Vice President for Geopolitics and International Affairs at S&P Global Energy, argues that investing in electrification is a necessity, along with the need for sufficient copper to sustain the supply: "The big challenge will be who can access electricity and at what cost."

Historically, prolonged shortages of goods are rare, as rising prices typically reduce demand, prompting the search for alternative materials or encouraging investment in production.

The S&P report states that this projected deficit takes into account the increase in recycled copper sources, with global production from scrap potentially reaching 10 million tons by 2040.

However, to fill the supply-demand gap, the world will need a large-scale, coordinated effort to increase copper production from 23 million tons in 2025 to at least 32 million tons by 2040.

VNA

Source: https://nhandan.vn/kinh-te-the-gioi-truoc-thach-thuc-moi-post935869.html