Expectations that lending rates may fall slightly

According to the forecast of the report "Vietnam Financial Market 2024 and Prospects for 2025", in the baseline scenario, in 2025, the average deposit interest rate will remain the same or decrease slightly; the lending interest rate is also forecast to remain the same or decrease slightly (about 0.1 - 0.3 percentage points).

According to this report, the current situation of lending interest rates of commercial banks (CBs) has fluctuated quite clearly, mainly due to the impact of domestic and international macroeconomic factors. Therefore, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) continues to maintain a stable policy of operating interest rates and exchange rates to ensure bank liquidity and capital supply for the economy.

However, in the first two months of 2025, many commercial banks suddenly increased their deposit interest rates, which caused lending interest rates at many banks to increase slightly, especially for long-term loans. However, this interest rate is considered "significantly lower" than at the beginning of 2024 and has many grounds to decrease in the future.

In March 2025, according to statistics, the average lending interest rate of domestic commercial banks for new and old loans with outstanding balances was at 6.6 - 9.0%/year. The average short-term lending interest rate in VND for priority sectors was about 3.9%/year, lower than the maximum short-term lending interest rate (4%/year) as prescribed by the State Bank.

Statistics show that in the first quarter of 2025, the interest rate market in Vietnam has made important adjustments, reflecting the close coordination between the State Bank of Vietnam and commercial banks to support economic growth and maintain financial market stability. The reduction in lending interest rates has created favorable conditions for businesses and people to access capital, promoting production and business activities. However, it is necessary to continue monitoring and evaluating to ensure a balance between growth and inflation control.

Currently, many banks have not announced the average lending interest rate for April 2025, but for some banks that have announced it, there are many different lending rates and the difference is quite large between state-owned commercial banks and joint-stock commercial banks.

Specifically, Agribank announced the average interest rate for short-term loans in April is at least 4.8%/year; medium and long-term loans are at least 5.5%/year; the interest rate for preferential credit programs of the State is 4%. Vietcombank also announced preferential interest rates for short-term production and business loans with interest rates from 4.6%/year for individuals, business households, and private business owners; green production enterprises enjoy preferential interest rates from 4.2%/year.

Meanwhile, Kienlong Bank announced that the average lending interest rate in April was quite high, up to 8.22%/year, down 0.24% compared to December 2024. Eximbank announced that the average interest rate in March for corporate customers was 6.52%.

A representative of the Vietnam Banking Association said that for priority sectors, short-term lending interest rates are commonly at 4% per year. Normal production and business loans have short-term interest rates from 5.89 - 10.06% per year, medium and long-term from 7.41 - 11.16% per year.

The latest announcement from the State Bank of Vietnam shows that in March, the average lending interest rate of domestic commercial banks for new and old loans with outstanding balances was at 6.6 - 9.0%/year, a slight decrease compared to January 2025. Currently, the State Bank of Vietnam has directed commercial banks to maintain stable deposit interest rates and reduce costs to reduce lending interest rates to support economic growth to reach the target of 8% in 2025.

But in the immediate future, while banks have not yet been able to announce reductions in short-term, medium-term and long-term loan interest rates, customers and businesses still have many opportunities to take advantage of specific preferential loan packages according to each Government program.

In the consumer sector, banks lend short-term at an average interest rate of 7.14 - 10.62%/year and medium and long-term at 6.99 - 11.69%/year. This is a fairly stable interest rate or only slightly increased, aiming to stimulate customers' demand for loans. However, a representative of the State Bank Association noted that those who need to borrow to buy a house, buy a car or borrow for business should carefully consider the accompanying terms, because the increase in interest rates can affect the ability to repay the debt. Similarly, with preferential interest rate programs for home loans or business production that are being widely announced, customers also need to pay attention to the accompanying loan conditions and calculate carefully before deciding to borrow.

Hoang Tu

Source: https://baophapluat.vn/ky-vong-lai-suat-cho-vay-co-the-giam-nhe-post548180.html