Will Russia launch a full-scale attack on Ukraine's "stronghold" Sumy?

T-90M tanks of the RFAF 76th Airborne Division in action on the Sumy front. Photo: Military Review

Russian forces on the Kursk-Sumy border

The number of Russian Armed Forces (RFAF) troops on the Sumy border is estimated at 50-75 thousand, supported by air force, artillery and armored vehicles. With such a force, can the Russian army advance deep into Ukrainian territory in the Sumy direction?

If the RFAF were to advance into Sumy, the main direction of attack would likely be to seize the tactically valuable heights between Yunakovka and Khrapovshchina, the forests northeast of Sumy, and the plains downstream of the Psel River.

The Northern Group of the RFAF is simultaneously carrying out two tasks: to drive out the last units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) from the Kursk region, and to establish a security zone with a depth of up to 20 km in the territory of the Sumy Oblast.

Beginning in late February, the 76th Airborne Division and the 83rd Airborne Brigade of the RFAF captured Basivka and advanced towards Loknya, cutting the N-07 Sumy-Kursk highway near Yunakivka (a stretch of nearly 10 km).

The RFAF now controls Loknya and advances on Yunakivka. On the right flank, after capturing Zhuravka, the 155th Marine Brigade of the RFAF Northern Group successively captured the villages along the border, including Veselivka, Vodolahy, Volodymyrivka, Kostyantynivka, Novokostiantynivka, etc. Continuing to expand the bridgehead.

The Russian Military Review reported that the RFAF has reorganized and reorganized all combat units in Kursk, starting from the battalion level, and the combined assault companies have been reinforced, so that they can continue assault operations and, when necessary, quickly switch to defensive combat.

RFAF paratroopers and marines at Kursk, fighting under the cover of tank units; supported by infantry from motorized infantry units and reinforced by artillery fire from the 14th and 44th Armies, of the Leningrad Military District.

In addition, RFAF units fighting in the Kursk-Sumy direction were reinforced.

Reinforcement of FPV UAV detachments of the National Guard Special Forces and the 34th Mechanized Infantry Brigade, 49th Combined Arms Corps/RFAF Southern Military District; carrying out combat missions on the territory of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the UAV units of the Rubicon Technology Center, which are still hunting for the remnants of the Ukrainian army in the border forests of the Kursk region, will also be included in the above formation.

With such a force, the RFAF group in Kursk could conduct a local operation, with a depth of 10 km, and a front of 30 km into Ukrainian territory.

However, it will be very difficult to crush and knock out the Ukrainian defense positions in the Sumy border area; in theory, this is possible. But only after the Northern Army Group is reinforced with maximum firepower and reinforcements.

The Northern Army Group also has "quality" reserve units such as the 56th Regiment of the 7th Air Assault Division; the 104th, 234th, and 237th Regiments of the 76th Airborne Assault Division; the 51st, 119th, and 137th Regiments of the 106th Airborne Division; and the 11th and 83rd Airborne Assault Brigades.

In addition, the RFAF Northern Group also has the 155th and 810th Marine Brigades; the "Arctic" Battalion of the 61st Brigade; the 177th Regiment; the 22nd and 30th Mechanized Infantry Regiments of the 44th Corps, the 72nd Mechanized Infantry Division; and 2 battalions of the 34th Independent Mechanized Infantry Brigade as reserve forces.

Regarding heavy weapons, the Northern Army Group has 110-120 tanks; 500 armored vehicles of various types; artillery (both self-propelled and towed) at least 650 guns; and 150-200 combat vehicles of multiple launch rocket systems (MRLS).

Ukrainian troops are still present in the Kursk region. Photo Ukrinform

The main target, the main direction of attack of RFAF in Sumy

The determination of the RFAF General Staff was to break through the Sumy defense line.

In terms of strength, the RFAF completely changed the situation in the Kursk area more than two months ago. But the success of the RFAF Northern Group quickly declined, as the AFU quickly retreated to Sumy, consolidated its position along tactically advantageous lines, and continued to use long-range firepower, such as HIMARS missiles, to attack the RFAF's rear lines.

Currently, the RFAF General Staff is calculating what the establishment of a security buffer zone under President Putin's orders will look like and what it will actually look like.

Earlier on March 12, during an inspection at the command post in Kursk Oblast, President Putin ordered the Chief of the RFAF General Staff, General Valery Gerasimov, to create a security zone outside the country's borders.

To achieve this goal, the RFAF needs to seize control of strategically valuable heights, taking advantage of terrain factors such as rivers, forests and other natural features on the ground, to establish a solid defense zone right on Ukrainian territory.

In addition, the RFAF needs to establish a real-time rear surveillance system for Ukraine and fire control of roads, logistical supply lines and potential strongpoints. This will help prevent any movement, mobilization or concentration of enemy forces.

In this regard, several heights between Yunakivka and Khrapovshchina, a completely forested area between Stetskovka and Mogritsa (about 20 km) and the Psel River are of interest and tactical value.

The Northern Army Group succeeded in crossing the Psel River in the Kursk region, now they will have to do it in the Sumy region?

In order to establish a security perimeter in Sumy, the Northern Army Group must first break through the Yunakivka stronghold (currently the Russian troops are advancing on the village from the north and west); at the same time, advance deep into the northern defense line of the N-07 road Khotin – Pysarivka – Mala Korchakivka – Korchakivka - Nova Sich – Khrapivshchyna and build a bridgehead there, in order to expand further attacks.

In addition, the RFAF marines used the Gornal bridgehead (in the Kursk Oblast of Russia), advancing along the Psel River to the Miropolye – Velikaya Rybitsa line.

It is also possible that the RFAF General Staff has prepared a plan for a two-pronged cross-border breakthrough - one towards Belopolye, the second towards Putivl or Glukhov, where it would be least expected. Although a direct advance towards Sumy is not the optimal option, it is still possible, if the RFAF coordinates its actions skillfully.

Projected RFAF attack directions into Sumy from the Kursk bridgehead. Photo Military Review

The RFAF’s plan to attack northeastern Ukraine will certainly require the application of unconventional solutions. It is necessary to prepare a strong strike force to carry out the operation as secretly as possible in a convenient location, for example, in Tyotkino. And also to think of actions to distract the enemy.

Currently, the RFAF's military actions on the border of Sumy are basically tactical probing and combat. It is too early to talk about the possibility of a breakthrough into the outskirts of Sumy. However, according to the forecast of the British news agency BBC, Sumy will be captured by the RFAF by the end of the summer.

As for the immediate military task, the RFAF Northern Group is still fighting to establish a position in the border area. And so far it cannot be said that events here are accelerating in any way...

Source: https://khoahocdoisong.vn/lieu-nga-co-tong-tan-cong-vao-thanh-tri-sumy-cua-ukraine-post1545790.html