Strong differentiation
SSI Securities Corporation has just released estimates of the first quarter 2025 business results of 39 enterprises in the research scope, including 13 banks. Accordingly, 11 banks will record positive profit growth in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period, one bank will be flat and one bank will see a decrease in profit.
SSI forecasts that Sacombank, VietinBank, VPBank, HDBank, BIDV, MB, ACB and MSB will have double-digit profit growth in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year. Of which, Sacombank will have the highest growth rate, at 51%, due to low provisioning costs due to stable asset quality during the period. The Bank's NIM may recover slightly compared to the previous quarter, helping pre-tax profit reach VND4,000 billion, up 51% over the same period, but down 14% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024.
Meanwhile, pre-tax profit in the first quarter of 2025 at VietinBank is forecast to reach VND8,800 billion, up 42% year-on-year. The growth momentum comes from good credit growth, reaching 5% as of the first quarter, and a low profit base in the first quarter of 2024.
For VPBank , credit growth in the first quarter of 2025 is forecast to reach 5% compared to the beginning of the year and better asset quality will be the main growth driver for profits. In that scenario, SSI expects VPBank 's pre-tax profit this quarter to reach VND5,500 billion, up 32% over the same period.
HDBank, MSB and Techcombank are expected to have higher profits in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period last year as credit increases. Specifically, HDBank is expected to reach VND4,800 billion (up 19% over the same period, up 18% over the previous quarter), driven by credit growth of about 6% since the beginning of the year, NIM remains stable compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. For MSB, pre-tax profit in the first quarter is estimated to reach VND1,700 billion, up 11% over the same period thanks to strong credit growth of 6% compared to the beginning of the year.
Techcombank's pre-tax profit in the first quarter of 2025 is forecast to reach VND8,300 billion (up 6% year-on-year, up 77% year-on-year), due to strong credit growth of about 6.5% and NIM recovery compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. BIDV's first-quarter profit is forecast to be about VND8,000 - 8,500 billion, up 8 - 15% year-on-year, thanks to stable credit growth (up 2% year-on-year), NIM is forecast to improve slightly from the low level in the first quarter of 2024...
Will it increase in 2025?
Despite slightly adjusting down the forecast for the banking industry's full-year 2025 profit growth from 20.2% in the previous report to 17.7% due to concerns about high provisioning levels this year, MBS Securities Company forecasts that the net profit growth of private and state-owned banks will be 19.8% and 14.7%, respectively. Of which, VietinBank, OCB, Techcombank, HDBank, MB... will increase profits sharply this year.
MBS said that state-owned banks face higher pressure to increase lending rates than private banks. Their role in stabilizing the macroeconomy makes them more cautious in boosting credit to the retail segment, thereby limiting the increase in NIM. The forecast for after-tax profit growth in 2025 of VietinBank and OCB is over 30%, 30.8% and 32.6%, respectively.
MB's profit is forecast by KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV) to increase by 12% in 2025, bad debt is no longer a major concern. Credit growth at MB will reach over 20% in the 2025-2027 period thanks to many favorable factors, but NIM will be under pressure in the short term.
In addition, the 2025 profits of other banks such as ACB, TPBank, Eximbank, Techcombank, VIB, HDBank, VPBank... are all forecast to increase by over 18% and 4 banks including MB, BIDV, Sacombank and Vietcombank will increase by single digits. Bank profits in 2025 are still expected to increase in credit growth.
Credit growth in the entire banking sector in 2025 is forecast to reach 17-18% thanks to the strong recovery of the manufacturing and consumption sectors, especially retail credit. Deputy Governor of the State Bank Pham Thanh Ha said that as of March 12, credit increased by 1.24% compared to the beginning of the year (February 2024 decreased by 0.74%).
Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan (Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics) said that although NIM will not increase sharply in 2025, accelerated credit growth will promote better growth in non-interest income compared to 2024. The proportion of non-interest income to total income is forecast to remain at 22%.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/loi-nhuan-ngan-hang-quy-dau-nam-du-bao-phan-hoa-manh-d259585.html
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