What to Expect from the Munich Security Conference 2025

This year's Munich Security Conference takes place in a volatile, fragmented and unpredictable world .

German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier speaks at the opening ceremony of the 61st Munich Security Conference. (Source: Xinhua)

The 61st Munich Security Conference (MSC) took place from February 14-16 in Munich, Germany as an annual event. It is an important global forum on international security policy, bringing together heads of state, diplomats , and experts from various fields to discuss some of the world's most pressing security challenges.

What's new in the new scenario?

The new point of this conference is probably the return of the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump. Especially, in the context that the world is expecting changes from Washington to be able to change the current global security situation.

The Munich Security Report released ahead of the conference emphasized that MSC 2025 focuses on the world's "multipolarization" trend, when the international order is increasingly polarized, not only between countries but also within many countries, posing risks to peace , prosperity and international cooperation in the context of increasing global threats.

The conference's themes focused on issues such as global security challenges, global governance, peace solutions to Ukraine, the Middle East, technological risks, etc. MSC President Christoph Heusgen chaired the conference, with the participation of the host country's President of Germany, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, leaders of European organizations such as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, EC President Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Parliament Roberta Metsola. The US delegation was led by Vice President JD Vance and the US President's special envoy for Ukraine and Russia, Keith Kellogg. Russia, absent from this forum since 2022, did not attend MSC 61.

This year's MSC 2025 takes place in a context where the world continues to be complicated, the White House welcomes the return of President Donald Trump for a second term, the European legislature in Brussels enters a new cycle and the host country Germany prepares for new parliamentary elections right after the conference.

Missing main character

The fact that President Donald Trump did not attend MSC 2025, instead sending his “deputy”, Vice President JD Vance, to lead the US delegation, shows that Mr. Trump is not very interested in this European event. Meanwhile, there are up to 60 heads of state and government, along with 150 ministers attending the conference.

The absence of Donald Trump shows that the conference is unlikely to reach commitments and agreements to resolve issues considered current global security challenges. Regarding the issue of peace in Ukraine, the previous phone call between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 12, lasting more than 90 minutes, discussing solutions to end the conflict in Ukraine, is considered a great victory for Russia, helping the Kremlin gradually break the blockade of the West.

On the same day, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also made a statement that Washington would not support Ukraine's desire to join NATO. Commenting on the phone call, the Kremlin emphasized that in addition to the Ukraine issue, Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin also discussed bilateral relations between Russia and the US in the economic field. Meanwhile, according to the New York Times , for the Kremlin leader, the phone call brought about a turning point as big as any battle in the three-year conflict in Ukraine. The phone call has generally caused great disappointment for the US's Western allies in Europe, pushing Europe into a deadlock in resolving the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

Vice President JD Vance leads the US delegation to the conference. (Source: Reuters)

The changes affect

First of all, the issue of NATO, the new leader of this bloc is Mr. Mark Rutte, former Prime Minister of the Netherlands. Mr. Rutte's predecessor, Mr. Jens Stoltenberg, began his role as MSC Chairman after MSC 61. Mr. Stoltenberg is expected to lead the MSC to carry out impactful dialogues on conflict prevention, cooperation and policy innovation. Meanwhile, for the former Prime Minister of the Netherlands, this is the first time he has held the position of leader of this organization. Mr. Mark Rutte's taking over the position of NATO Secretary General from Mr. Jens Stoltenberg (from October 1, 2024) is the first time the top leadership position of NATO has changed in a decade.

Mr. Rutte is said to still lack experience in leading NATO, so he will certainly have many difficulties in uniting this Western alliance as well as strengthening and developing the close relationship between this bloc and the US. This will become even more difficult when Mr. Trump officially returns to the White House. Mr. Trump has made tough statements towards Europe since returning to power. In addition, NATO member countries are facing new pressure when they are forced to increase their defense budget to 5% of GDP (up from the current contribution of 2%) as required by the new US President.

This seems beyond the capacity of NATO member countries, because so far only 23/32 NATO member countries have met the requirement to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP. For the host country of the conference, MSC 61 takes place just one week before the German parliamentary election (February 23). Germany is witnessing deep divisions between political parties within the country. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his SPD party have sharp conflicting views with the CDU/CSU coalition on European security, such as whether to continue or not to support Ukraine, the issue of immigration and accepting refugees.

According to the latest poll by the Infratest Dimap Institute, the CDU/CSU coalition is temporarily leading with 31%, followed by the AfD with 21%, and the SPD of incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz with only 15%. Like a number of European countries, Germany is facing a wave of populism and far-right parties. For MSC 61, both German far-right parties, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the left-wing Alliance (DIA), were not invited to attend because they did not comply with the main principle of the conference: peace through dialogue (representatives of the two parties left the hall when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was speaking at the plenary session of the German Parliament in June 2024).

Therefore, with the above entanglement, it seems difficult for Germany to focus on the issues of MSC 61. With Brussels (EC), Poland has officially replaced Hungary to assume the rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU) until June 30, 2025, a coincidence with the beginning of the new term of the European Commission with the requirement to set out strategic goals and solutions for the next 5 years. This is considered a big challenge for Poland and the EU to set up agendas focusing on measures to strengthen the bloc's security and defense, in the context that the EU is facing a series of political storms and economic instability surrounding countries in the region.

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi speaks at the Munich Security Conference. (Source: AP)

As expected?

MSC 2025 seems to continue the common concerns from previous conferences, especially from MSC 2023, when the main theme of "Redrawing the vision" made comments on global security in the face of many challenges from world competitions, such as: global infrastructure, digital infrastructure, cyberspace to trade, which reverses the logic of international trade structure, increases fragmentation and deglobalization trends, nuclear order and strategic stability; not really achieving the expected results.

The conference was expected to build a vision towards a rules-based order in the context of fierce competition in the international order, forcing the great powers to consider the legitimate concerns and interests of the wider international community. However, reality shows that the world continues to suffer from the negative impacts of the multipolarization of the international order, leading to deep divisions and increasingly fierce competition among the great powers, and ultimately causing global crises and threats like today.

From the above facts, it can be seen that MSC 61 this time seems to be an annual event, "coming again and again" and did not achieve the expected results. President Donald Trump and his 2.0 administration are not much interested in strengthening the relationship between the US and its European allies, instead focusing on handling issues related to Russia, China, North Korea, the Middle East and other issues directly related to the vital interests of the US as well as in line with President Donald Trump's "America First" view.

It is time to review the substance and effectiveness of the MSC, considering the factors of common vision, principles, solidarity and connection. All of the above criteria have so far shown a lack of effectiveness and sustainability. The MSC needs to overcome the above difficulties and obstacles to truly become the most important “independent forum” for exchanging views among international security policy makers in accordance with its principles.

For Vietnam, the MSC 2025 results provide more opportunities to consider and proactively participate in shaping the global security order; handle the impacts of competition between major countries to minimize risks for Vietnam; and thereby seek opportunities from the above-mentioned global security challenges.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/mong-doi-gi-tu-hoi-nghi-an-ninh-munich-2025-304525.html