The goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is difficult to achieve.

The world is making progress in the fight against climate change, but not fast enough or aggressive enough to avoid a dangerous scenario of exceeding the 1.5°C threshold — a warning just issued by the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Mr. Simon Stiell.

According to Mr. Simon Stiell, most global climate plans lack ambition, threatening the goal of keeping the Earth's temperature below 1.5°C. (Photo: The Guardian)

In a report released ahead of New York Climate Week and the UN Climate Summit, the agency said most current national plans to reduce carbon emissions are still inconsistent with the goal of keeping the Earth's temperature from rising more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Mr. Stiell was blunt: “ Some countries have done enough. But most have not. And if we continue at the current rate, the world will miss its only chance to limit climate change to safe levels .”

Still, Stiell believes that the COP30 summit in Belém, Brazil, where the international community will have to submit new NDCs to reflect deeper emissions cuts, can be successful if it addresses shortcomings and spurs investment in green economic transitions.

He pointed out that global private sector investments in clean energy and low-carbon industries last year exceeded $2 trillion, far greater than the roughly $1 trillion poured into fossil fuels.

Some progress, but still a long way to go

The UNFCCC report notes progress since COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, last year, with many countries accelerating renewable energy deployment, improving energy efficiency and introducing climate finance policies.

Yet analysis shows that most national climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — remain unambitious, with some countries not even submitting updates. This means the world is still off the trajectory needed to meet the Paris goals.

China, for example, has made remarkable progress in greening its economy—renewables now generate about a quarter of its electricity, electric vehicles account for about 50% of new car sales, and exports of “low-carbon” products were worth $177 billion in a recent year. Yet its upcoming NDC is expected to fall significantly short of its potential.

As for the European Union, there are internal tensions among its members, compounded by growing resistance from the populist right. The EU has yet to finalise its NDC, and is unlikely to meet the deadline, but ministers recently issued a “statement of intent” that calls for emissions cuts of between 66.25% and 72.5% by 2035 compared to 1990 levels. This is well below the expectations of environmental campaigners, who believe the figure could reach 79% or higher.

Stientje van Veldhoven, director for Europe at the World Resources Institute, warned that large gaps in commitment levels could send mixed messages, erode investor confidence and impact jobs, energy security and competitiveness.

Australia recently announced an NDC to cut emissions by 62-70% by 2035, compared to 1990 levels; but according to analysts, this is still short of the roughly 75% needed to meet the 1.5°C limit. In addition, Australia’s refusal to completely phase out fossil fuels has drawn strong reactions from environmental groups. The country is also competing with Türkiye to host COP31 next year.

The UNFCCC Executive Secretary affirmed that the responsibility for action does not lie solely with governments but extends to businesses, cities and communities. He called for comprehensive cooperation: “ No one can stand aside. Every country, every business, every community must contribute to this common effort .”

Source: https://baolangson.vn/muc-tieu-han-che-nhet-do-trai-dat-tang-qua-1-5-c-kho-dat-duoc-5059861.html