Is the US shaping Israel's invasion of Gaza?

On October 14, while Israel was still shocked by the surprise attack by Hamas forces from the Gaza Strip a week earlier, the Israeli military said it was preparing "coordinated attacks from the air, sea and land" to destroy Hamas, according to Bloomberg today, October 20.

However, by mid-week, Israeli military spokesmen said that a ground offensive in Gaza “may be different than what you think”. They also said that a ground offensive in Gaza could start later and last longer, unfolding in unexpected ways.

Israel would likely send forces trained in urban warfare, backed by regular troops and air cover, to go house to house and try to eliminate or capture Hamas leaders, said Bilal Saab, a former Pentagon official and now a researcher at the Middle East Institute in the United States.

The role of the United States

The United States shares Israel’s goal of destroying Hamas’ military infrastructure in Gaza, a goal that can only be achieved through a ground offensive because Hamas has spent decades building a network of tunnels and other positions, according to Bloomberg.

But U.S. influence is shaping how Israel conducts its ground offensive, especially how to limit casualties among the 2 million civilians in Gaza, as well as the Israeli government 's plans for what happens when the offensive ends, according to Bloomberg, citing Israeli officials and people close to the Israeli government.

Three senior Israeli officials say the US role and influence in the fight against Hamas is deeper and more powerful than any previous effort by Washington. The past few days have seen an unprecedented series of visits to Israel by top US officials, including the secretaries of state and defense, and President Joe Biden.

A formation of Israeli tanks and other military forces is seen near the Israel-Gaza border, in southern Israel on October 19.

The US is increasingly concerned that an expected Israeli ground offensive could draw in intervention from Iran-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon. If Hezbollah intervenes, it could open a second front in the Hamas-Israel conflict and spark a broader conflict that would drag the US deeper into the conflict and undermine the Biden administration’s efforts to stabilize the region by brokering peace between Israel and Arab states.

"President Biden is focused on reducing the risk of this war spreading to another front. That's his main goal," Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen said in an interview.

Aboard Air Force One returning to Washington DC after a visit to Israel on October 18, President Biden said he had spoken to Israeli leaders about various “alternatives” to a ground war because of concerns about civilian casualties and the spread of the Hamas-Israel conflict.

"Why is humanitarianism so important?"

After the Hamas-Israel conflict erupted, the US sent two aircraft carrier strike groups to the eastern Mediterranean and put troops on alert. However, President Biden and US officials have stressed the importance of limiting civilian casualties.

In Tel Aviv on Oct. 18, President Biden pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, where civilians are stranded by dwindling food and water supplies and frequent Israeli airstrikes. The first aid shipments from Egypt could arrive in Gaza as early as Oct. 20, according to U.S. officials.

"Biden is determined to defeat Hamas, but he also wants to maintain the strategic alliances and peace treaties between Israel and Arab countries and expand them, to strengthen America's leadership role in the Middle East. That's why the humanitarian issue is so important," said Major General Amos Gilead, a former top official in the Israeli Ministry of Defense.

Residential buildings destroyed in recent Israeli strikes in the town of Zahra, south of Gaza City.

Former Israeli Ambassador to the US Michael Oren said President Biden is pushing Israel to be more cautious in its Gaza invasion and response to the increasing attacks from Hezbollah. "This will put Netanyahu in a difficult position," Oren said. Oren also said the US could pressure Netanyahu to bring Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to Gaza and revive efforts for a two-state solution.

Mairav ​​Zonszein, senior Israel analyst at the International Crisis Group think tank in Belgium, commented that Israel wants to provide security for its citizens and restore deterrence, and to do so, it must inflict many civilian casualties. However, Netanyahu’s government has absorbed the US message, according to Manuel Trajtenberg, executive director of the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies.

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