"Against the trend" of the world, Vietnam's economy accelerates

Vietnam's GDP growth in the first 6 months of 2025, according to forecasts at the end of May 2025, could reach 7.31%, but it is estimated that by the end of June, the figure could increase to 7.5-7.6%.

Exports in the first 6 months are estimated to increase by 14.4%, with a trade surplus of 7.63 billion USD.

GDP in 6 months may reach 7.5-7.6%

The final data on the socio-economic situation in the second quarter and the first 6 months of 2025 will be officially announced in the next few days. However, reporting at the regular Government meeting in June and the Government's online conference with localities and organizations yesterday (July 3), Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang said that in the first half of the year, economic growth achieved the highest results in nearly 20 years, many targets and indexes on production, business, state budget... were better every month, every quarter; the macro economy was kept stable, inflation was controlled...

“According to the forecast at the end of May, GDP growth in the second quarter is estimated at 7.67% over the same period; 6 months reached 7.31%. However, it is estimated that by the end of June, the GDP growth rate in the first 6 months may be 0.2 - 0.3 percentage points higher than the forecast, reaching about 7.5 - 7.6%, closely following the scenario in Resolution No. 154/NQ-CP (7.6%)”, said Minister Nguyen Van Thang, adding that Vietnam's growth rate in 2025 is forecast to continue to be the highest in ASEAN and among the leading groups in the world and the region.

The head of the financial sector also used the phrase “against the backdrop” of the world economic downturn to emphasize the positive trend of the economy, in the context of difficulties following difficulties and challenges following challenges. The difficulties and challenges were enormous, but the entire economy made great efforts, determination, and perseverance in achieving its goals, and had the courage to carry out its work and respond promptly and effectively to the situation. Thanks to that, the socio-economic situation achieved quite comprehensive results.

In addition to the GDP growth rate following the proposed scenario, many figures can be cited to prove this statement. The processing and manufacturing industry in the second quarter increased by 10.65% compared to the same period last year, and the overall growth rate for the first 6 months was 10%, reaching the proposed scenario, one of the few years with double-digit growth in the first 6 months since 2011. In the past 15 years, there have only been 4 years with double-digit growth in industrial production in the first 6 months.

Other notable indicators are that exports in the first 6 months increased by 14.4%, trade surplus estimated at 7.63 billion USD; total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in the second quarter increased by 9% over the same period, 6 months increased by 9.3%; total registered foreign investment capital in the first 6 months reached over 21.5 billion USD, up 32.6% over the same period (highest since 2009), realized capital reached over 11.7 billion USD, up 8.1%; the number of enterprises entering and re-entering the market in the first 6 months reached 152,700 enterprises, 20% higher than the number of enterprises withdrawing from the market (127,200 enterprises).

On July 2, answering at the regular press conference of the second quarter of the Ministry of Finance, Ms. Trinh Thi Huong, Deputy Director of the Department of Private Enterprise Development and Collective Economy (Ministry of Finance) emphasized this. According to her, in June 2025, the number of newly registered enterprises reached a record high, reaching 24,422 enterprises, more than double the period of 2021 - 2024. This figure shows that the start-up wave is increasing strongly, the business community's confidence in the prospects of economic recovery and development is being strengthened.

Striving for 8% growth target

Vietnam's economy achieved positive results in the first half of the year. This was emphasized by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, members of the Government, as well as leaders of ministries, sectors and localities at yesterday's meeting.

Even more positive when compared to the set scenarios, some targets were exceeded. For example, the export growth rate reached 14.4%, while the target was 10%; the trade surplus reached 7.63 billion USD, while the target was 5.65 billion USD...

Notably, according to the Ministry of Finance, after reviewing and consolidating growth data, 17/34 localities (after reviewing and merging) had GRDP growth of over 8%. For example, Quang Ngai grew by 13.02%, Hai Phong by 11.42%, Quang Ninh by 10.89%, Ninh Binh by 10.75%, Da Nang by 9.98%...

GRDP growth figures of localities are also positive. The report of the Ministry of Finance shows that 41 localities (before the merger) had a growth rate in the second quarter higher than the first quarter; 30 localities grew by over 8%. Key localities also basically grew by 8% or more, such as Ho Chi Minh City grew by 7.82%, Hanoi by 7.63%, Binh Duong by 8.3%, Dong Nai by 8.34%, Hai Phong by 11%, Quang Ninh by 11%, Nghe An by 8.2%...

When localities have positive GRDP growth, it will contribute significantly to boosting the country's GDP growth. However, frankly, Minister Nguyen Van Thang said that the growth target for 2025 still has many challenges. "To achieve the growth target of 8% or more in 2025, the last 6 months of the year need to increase by 8.6% compared to the same period," said the Minister.

The story is that the Vietnamese economy still faces many challenges. Exports are forecast to face many risks due to slowing growth in purchasing power in markets, especially major markets; export orders are decreasing. Consumption in the first 6 months, although growing positively, has not had a breakthrough, still lower than the target for the whole year (12%), and has not become an important driving force contributing to economic growth. Although private investment has gradually recovered, it is not yet stable. New growth drivers such as science and technology, digital transformation, financial centers, free trade zones... are in the early stages, needing time to create changes and achieve results...

A few days ago, S&P Global released the Vietnam Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). Accordingly, this index dropped to 48.9 points in June 2025, with a sharp decline in new orders. The US tariff policy is the underlying cause.

“June 2025 saw weaker global demand for Vietnamese manufactured goods as the impact of tariffs intensified. A sharp decline in exports contributed to a further decline in total new orders, with firms cutting back on employment and purchasing activity,” said Andrew Harker, chief economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

But that was the story of June. The positive news was released right before the regular meeting of the Government. At 8:00 p.m. on July 2 (Vietnam time), General Secretary To Lam had a phone call with US President Donald Trump about Vietnam-US relations and negotiations on reciprocal taxes between the two countries. Immediately after that, President Donald Trump posted on social media about having "reached a trade agreement with Vietnam". Accordingly, the US will significantly reduce reciprocal taxes for many Vietnamese export goods. This is expected to have a positive impact on Vietnam's trade and economy.

When the above concerns are somewhat relieved, solutions to bring the economy to a high growth rate will continue to be promoted. At yesterday's conference, the Prime Minister once again emphasized the determination to bring the economy to a growth rate of over 8% this year, with a series of instructions on promoting public investment disbursement, domestic consumption, as well as exports, removing difficulties for production and business, promoting new growth drivers...

Source: https://baodautu.vn/nguoc-chieu-the-gioi-kinh-te-viet-nam-tang-toc-d321303.html