Global Robusta supply will be in serious shortage

Coffee prices are forecast to decrease slightly in the domestic market on September 25, 2024. According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), Vietnam's 2023/2024 coffee crop is about to end (only half a month left in September) with the result of 1.43 million tons of coffee exported, earning about 5.23 billion USD. In total, Vietnam's average export price of coffee is 3,657 USD/ton in this crop. Vietnam mainly exports Robusta, Arabica, decaffeinated green coffee and processed coffee (roasted, ground, instant),...

In the first half of September 2024, Vietnam's coffee exports reached 17,305 tons, bringing in more than 87 million USD, down 18% in volume but up 55.1% in value over the same period last year.

Of which, Robusta coffee accounted for the majority with 15,155 tons, bringing in 76.583 million USD, the average export price reached 5,053 USD/ton.

Arabica exported 1,129 tons, with a turnover of 4.705 million USD, with an average price of 4,166 USD/ton.

Coffee price forecast September 25: Global Robusta supply will be severely short

Domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on September 24, 2024 as follows: Today's domestic coffee market decreased by 500 VND/kg, ranging from 119,000 - 119,500. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 119,300 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong, Dak Lak, Kon Tum, Gia Lai provinces is 119,500 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 119,500 VND, down 500 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the price is 119,400 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province, the price is 119,500 VND/kg, down 500 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at 119,500 VND/kg, down 500 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 119,000 VND/kg, down 500 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices today (September 24) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 119,500 VND/kg, down 500 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at 119,400 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 9:00 p.m. on September 24, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 5,314 USD/ton, up 38 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee price today September 24, 2024: Robusta coffee price on London floor. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com

The November 2024 delivery term is 5,040 USD/ton, up 37 USD; the January 2025 delivery term is 4,851 USD/ton, up 35 USD and the March 2025 delivery term is 4,715 USD/ton, up 33 USD.

Coffee price today September 24, 2024: New York Arabica coffee price. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 9:00 p.m. on September 24, 2024 increased in all terms, fluctuating at 259.40 - 267.40 cents/lb.

Specifically, the December 2024 delivery period is 267.40 cents/lb; up 3.75 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The March 2025 delivery period is 265.20 cents/lb, up 3.90 cents/lb; the May 2025 delivery period is 262.85 cents/lb, up 4.05 cents/lb and the July 2025 delivery period is 259.95 cents/lb, up 4.10 cents/lb.

Coffee price today September 24, 2024: Brazilian Arabica coffee price. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 9:00 p.m. on September 24, 2024 increased. Specifically, the delivery period for September 2024 is 317.60 USD/ton, up 7.75%; the delivery period for December 2024 is 321.30 USD/ton, up 2.47%; the delivery period for March 2025 is 318.10 USD/ton, up 5.42% and the delivery period for May 2025 is 314.25 USD/ton, up 5.35%.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

According to expert Nguyen Quang Binh, although rain is forecast in Brazil this week, there has been no rain yet, so the two coffee exchanges have turned around and increased sharply, almost regaining what was lost in the last 2 days of the week. In addition, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are getting hotter, causing speculators to shift money to gold and partly to coffee.

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Vietnam’s Robusta coffee output will decrease by 1% in the 2024/25 crop year to 27.85 million 60kg bags and decrease by about 9% compared to the 2021/22 crop year. This reflects a long-term downward trend in output while global demand continues to increase.

Volcafe, one of the major coffee traders, also forecasts a severe global Robusta supply shortage in 2024-2025, marking the fourth consecutive year of this situation.

Coffee acreage in Vietnam has been declining as farmers have switched to alternative crops such as durian and avocado in recent years. According to a USDA report, declining groundwater and shade rates also pose long-term challenges, as many Vietnamese farmers rely on wells for irrigation and forest cover to reduce evaporation.

*Information is for reference only, prices may vary depending on region and locality.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-259-nguon-cung-robusta-toan-cau-se-thieu-hut-nghiem-trong-348063.html