Market “psychology” changes
On the last trading day of June, gold prices on the world market increased slightly, supported by a weakening USD (the Dollar Index decreased 0.23% to 97.74).
Previously, on June 28, the price of gold fell nearly 2%, reaching $3,272/ounce, down more than $50 compared to the opening price of the session. The price of gold futures for August delivery on the Comex floor fell 1.9%, closing at $3,285/ounce. This is the lowest level since late May 2025. This decline is contrary to the strong upward trend in the previous period, when the price of gold reached a historical peak of $3,500.05/ounce in April 2025, thanks to safe-haven demand amid geopolitical instability.
However, market sentiment has changed rapidly following recent positive developments, especially the US-China trade deal reached on June 27, reducing the attractiveness of gold.
The US-China trade deal, which gives US companies access to rare earths and magnets from China, helped ease trade tensions and boosted stock indexes such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which rose 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively, on June 27. This caused investors to shift to riskier assets such as stocks, reducing demand for gold - a traditional safe haven.
The gold market has continued to be under pressure as risk sentiment has been bolstered by positive economic signals and the prospect of a Fed rate cut. Gold prices edged up slightly to $3,274 an ounce at the close of trading on June 30. However, The Economic Times noted that gold remained at its lowest level in a month as investors awaited US economic data, including the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and Consumer Confidence Index.
Comex gold futures trading volumes fell another 5% on June 30 from the previous week, reflecting investor caution. Meanwhile, outflows from the SPDR Gold Shares ETF rose slightly, with a net outflow of 0.4% in the week ended June 30.
China continues to play a key role in supporting long-term gold prices. The People’s Bank of China added 2 tonnes of gold in May 2025, bringing its total reserves to a record high of 2,297 tonnes. The move reflects Beijing’s strategy to reduce its dependence on the US dollar, especially amid trade tensions.
However, global gold ETFs have seen slower inflows. SPDR Gold Shares saw a slight increase of 0.3% in holdings over the past week. Gold remains supported by steady physical demand from India and China. Retail gold sales in India rose 3% over the past week as prices corrected lower. Analysts from EBC Financial Group predict that if the US PMI shows a slowdown in growth, gold could recover to $3,300 an ounce. This reflects investor caution in the short term.
Mixed views on gold price outlook
According to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report for May, core inflation increased 0.2% month-on-month, higher than the forecast (0.1%). The annual inflation rate reached 2.7%, reinforcing the possibility that the Fed will maintain interest rates at 4.25 - 4.5% in the near future, instead of cutting in September 2025 as previously expected.
In testimony before Congress on June 27, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stressed that the central bank will continue to monitor inflation closely. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, putting strong downward pressure on prices. However, Reuters noted that traders are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75 basis points in 2025, possibly starting in September, which could support gold prices, if confirmed.
Gold has broken the 50-day moving average (EMA 50) at $3,359/ounce, confirming a short-term downtrend. The key support levels are currently at $3,250/ounce and $3,200/ounce, while resistance is at $3,340/ounce and $3,400/ounce. If gold breaks through $3,250/ounce, selling pressure could increase, pushing the price to $3,200/ounce, according to James Hyerczyk from FX Empire. Conversely, if the price breaks above $3,340/ounce, technical buying pressure could help gold recover to the $3,400/ounce area.
On the geopolitical front, a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran reached on June 24 has eased tensions in the Middle East, reducing demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar. While the situation is still not completely stable, US President Donald Trump expressed hope for a lasting diplomatic solution with Iran, reducing the risk of further escalation. However, analysts from Bloomberg warned that any unexpected escalation, such as Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, could send gold and oil prices soaring again.
Analysts have mixed views on the outlook for gold prices. According to Kitco News, expert Jim Rickards predicts that gold could reach $3,400 an ounce by the end of July 2025 if geopolitical factors return to support, such as instability in the Middle East or a weakening US economy. However, UBS Global Wealth Management warns that if the Fed continues to maintain high interest rates due to persistent inflation, gold prices could fall to $3,200 an ounce in the short term.
ANZ’s Soni Kumari said that the reduced safe-haven demand, combined with the risk-on sentiment following the US-China deal, will continue to weigh on gold prices in the coming weeks. However, gold remains supported in the long term by central bank demand and global economic risks, especially as geopolitical factors could re-emerge at any time.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/nhu-cau-tru-an-giam-gia-vang-chiu-ap-luc-lon-d318696.html
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