Investment funds expect to accelerate in the second half of the year

In the first 6 months of the year, most investment funds have not recorded outstanding profits. However, with a positive market outlook, investment activities are expected to be more favorable in the second half of 2025.

Most investment funds have not recorded high profits in the first half of the year.

June's good performance is not enough to carry the market

Performance statistics of investment funds on several platforms show that most equity funds continued to achieve positive performance in June 2025. Among them, PYN Elite Fund led with a performance of 9.08%, of which the 5.24% increase came from the growth of NAV/fund certificate (listed in EUR) and the rest was due to the increase in VND/EUR exchange rate.

Other open-end fund groups such as VEOF, VESAF and closed-end funds VEIL, VNH also had outstanding growth in June compared to passive funds (ETFs). However, in general, the growth in June was not enough to bring the yield level in the first half of the year to beat the market.

Specifically, VinaCapital Market Access Equity Fund (VESAF) increased by 5.6% in June 2025, higher than the 3.3% increase of VN-Index. This positive performance mainly comes from the large proportion in PVS (accompanied by the good performance of the oil and gas industry in general) and DGC - two enterprises in the energy and chemical group. VESAF said that these are all investments that the fund has accumulated before at attractive valuations, based on financial health, operational capacity and long-term prospects. However, as of July 17, 2025, VESAF's profit has only increased by 3.3%.

Although in the first 6 months of the year, net withdrawals occurred in both stock and bond investment funds, in the second half of the year, the market expects more from a reversal of cash flow.

Meanwhile, VinaCapital Modern Economic Equity Fund (VMEEF) recorded an increase of 4.2% in June 2025, but as of July 17, 2025, its performance was only 3.7%.

FiinGroup statistics show that in the first 6 months of 2025, only 16/63 equity funds recorded outstanding performance compared to the same period in 2024, mainly from foreign passive funds such as VanEck Vietnam ETF and Fubon FTSE Vietnam ETF, which benefited significantly from the strong upward trend of the VND/USD exchange rate.

In contrast, the cumulative performance of open-end and closed-end funds in the first half of this year has yet to catch up with the high growth rate of the same period last year. The main reason is the negative performance of the market in the first quarter of 2025, along with strong adjustment pressure in April amid growing concerns about tariff risks.

Meanwhile, bond funds maintained stable performance in June, with an average unchanged compared to May 2025. MB Flexible Cash Flow Bond Fund (MBAM) led the way with a growth of +0.8%, which was also the highest performance of this fund in the last 10 months. In contrast, Techcom Bond Fund (TCBF) was the only bond fund to record a negative performance in June 2025, at -0.05%.

In the first 6 months of 2025, only 6/23 funds achieved higher performance than the same period in 2024, showing that most bond funds are facing pressure to decrease performance compared to the previous year, similar to the development of the stock fund group. However, 20/23 bond funds recorded a nominal return higher than the savings interest rate, but if taxes and fees are taken into account, the difference between these two investment channels is not too obvious.

High expectations for the second half of the year

Although in the first 6 months of the year, net withdrawals occurred in both stock and bond investment funds, in the second half of the year, the market expects more from a reversal of cash flow.

Some funds started to see net capital inflows again in the first half of July, including VanEck Vietnam ETF (VND 658 billion), ETF DCVFMVN DIAMOND (VND 359 billion).

As for the bond fund group, after being withdrawn for 3 consecutive months, capital inflows returned in June 2025, concentrated in Techcom Bond Fund (TCBF), DCIP Bond Fund (DCIP), and An Binh Bond Fund (ABBF).

The cash flow of investment funds has shifted significantly when June recorded 25/34 open-end equity funds reducing the proportion of cash, a sharp increase compared to 19/35 funds in May, reflecting a more optimistic sentiment and expectations of growth potential.

Notably, VESAF and VMEEF, with a total net asset value (NAV) of nearly VND4,700 billion, have drastically reduced their cash holdings after increasing their holdings last month. In addition, VFMVSF and DCDS continued to reduce their cash holdings for the third consecutive month, showing that the strategy of promoting disbursement is clearly spreading.

Hoa Phat Group's HPG shares are a favorite stock of many investment funds, with 56 funds participating in net buying in June. In addition, the fund's cash flow also aimed at net buying bank stocks such as OCB , MBB, CTG. In particular, the buying power came from PYN Elite Fund with the expectation that the Law amending and supplementing the Law on Credit Institutions will contribute to improving liquidity and speeding up the process of handling bad debts.

Assessing the overall outlook, investment funds still believe in their current portfolios. VinaCapital investment funds said that the Government 's policies to promote economic growth are starting to take effect and are expected to bring the economy into a period of high growth. In addition, progress in trade negotiations between Vietnam and the US, along with positive signals about the prospect of upgrading the stock market, also contributed to strengthening investor sentiment.

The market upgrade process is also progressing well and is awaiting a decision from FTSE Russell. Since the beginning of July, foreign investors have returned to net buying and become one of the main drivers supporting the market. Evaluating the portfolio, VMEEF said that the group of energy infrastructure, telecommunications, industrial parks, transportation and public utilities stocks accounts for more than 20% of the fund's total net asset value, but is still not properly priced.

VMEEF believes that infrastructure companies play a vital role in the modernization of Vietnam’s economy. These are companies with high barriers to entry, strong financial resources, and prudent management processes, but also have plans to double their capacity or market share in the next 3-5 years.

VESAF said the fund is still looking for new opportunities in small and medium-cap stocks, where valuations are still attractive and less influenced by short-term capital flows.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/quy-dau-tu-ky-vong-but-toc-nua-cuoi-nam-d338648.html