Super El Niño threatens to erupt later this year.

According to the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), this extreme weather phenomenon could be one of the strongest El Niño events in history, threatening to cause a global humanitarian and economic crisis.

In its forecast released on May 14, NOAA estimated a 65% chance that the upcoming El Niño event will reach "strong" or "very strong" levels starting in October.

A very strong El Niño (or super El Niño) occurs when sea surface temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius above average.

In addition, there is an 82% chance that El Niño will occur between now and July and last until February 2027, a 20% increase in certainty compared to the April forecast.

El Niño is a natural climate cycle that occurs periodically every 2 to 7 years in the tropical Pacific region.

This phenomenon increases global temperatures, significantly impacting weather patterns and agriculture .

The most recent El Niño event (May 2023 - March 2024) contributed to making 2024 the hottest year on record. According to Climate Brief, if the next one maintains its intensity, 2027 could break this record.

Many experts fear this could be the biggest El Niño since the 1870s. Professor Paul Roundy from the University of Albany says current data is leaning toward this ominous scenario.

If a super El Niño event actually occurs, it could be comparable to the catastrophe of 1877 – the cause of the global famine of 1876-1878 that killed more than 50 million people.

Dr. Deepti Singh, head of the research team at Washington State University, warned that food and water security remain seriously threatened.

Because the atmosphere and oceans are much warmer today than in the 19th century, extreme weather events will become even more intense. In the past, the strong El Niño event of 1997-1998 caused global economic damage ranging from $32 billion to $96 billion.

NOAA expert Nathaniel Johnson emphasized that super El Niño would devastate the fishing and agricultural industries, while also increasing the risk of wildfires and storms.

Agreeing with this view, Professor Liz Stephens from the University of Reading argues that reduced yields due to drought or floods will drive up food prices. This directly affects those living in poverty, causing extremely serious humanitarian consequences.

NOAA's next detailed forecast will be released on June 11th.

Source: https://baophapluat.vn/sieu-el-nino-co-nguy-co-bung-phat-vao-cuoi-nam.html