Opta supercomputer predicts the winner of the 2026 World Cup.

VHO - According to the supercomputer Opta, the Spanish national team has surpassed a number of big names to become the number one contender for the championship, while the chances of the co-hosting teams creating an upset are assessed as very low.

Spain is predicted by the supercomputer Opta to be the number one contender for the championship.

Spain is in absolute lead.

In just a few days, the 2026 World Cup finals will officially kick off in three countries: the United States, Canada, and Mexico. This will be a historic World Cup as it marks the first time the number of participating teams has been increased to 48, with a total of 104 matches.

To provide a comprehensive overview before the tournament begins, Opta's supercomputer ran 10,000 different simulations of all possible tournament outcomes.

Statistical model analysis has determined that Luis de la Fuente's team has the highest probability of winning the tournament, at 16.1%.

Spain's resounding success in recent years, culminating in their EURO 2024 victory, along with the possession of a promising generation of young talents such as Lamine Yamal, Rodri, Ferran Torres, and Mikel Merino, provides a solid foundation that has earned them the full trust of the supercomputer.

Furthermore, Spain is the only team at this World Cup predicted to have more than a 50% chance of reaching the quarter-finals. Their chances of reaching the final are also leading with a 25.6% probability.

At the group stage, Opta predicted that Spain had a 75.3% chance of finishing first in Group H, where they would face Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde.

Closely behind Spain are France, England, and the defending champions Argentina. France is in second place with a 13% chance of winning the championship and a 21.3% chance of reaching the final.

Under the guidance of coach Didier Deschamps, the French national team continues to be a formidable force thanks to its world -class squad, most notably superstar Kylian Mbappe. The upcoming battle in North America will also be Deschamps' final major tournament as head coach of France.

In third place is the England team with an 11.2% chance of winning the title and a 19% chance of reaching the final. After two consecutive defeats in the EURO final, the "Three Lions" are highly determined to end their title drought, which has lasted since 1966, relying on key players like Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham, and Declan Rice.

Meanwhile, reigning world champions Argentina are in fourth place with a 10.4% chance of winning and an 18.1% chance of reaching the final.

Although they no longer receive the overwhelming ratings they did at the 2022 World Cup, Lionel Messi and his teammates remain a very cohesive and formidable team, with a 73% chance of finishing first in Group J according to the system's predictions.

Notably, the 2026 World Cup will mark an unprecedented milestone in football history as both legends Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo will be participating in their sixth World Cup.

The appearance of the chasing group

The clear gap between the top four teams and the rest reflects the strength of their squads, depth of their players, and experience in major competitions.

Ranked fifth overall is Portugal with a 7% chance of lifting the trophy. The presence of the "European Selecao" in the top group is explained by their possession of a generation of highly balanced and high-quality players across all three lines. Following them are Brazil (6.6%), Germany (5.1%), and the Netherlands (3.6%) with similar chances.

The system also noted Norway's odds of winning at 2.6%, with Belgium close behind at 2.4%. Notably, Opta's simulations also indicated a 35.9% chance that this year's World Cup will see a completely new champion lift the trophy for the first time in history.

Darkness enveloped the home teams.

For North American nations, the data analysis from the supercomputer has poured cold water on the hopes of soccer fans there. The chances of the three co-hosting teams creating a miracle are considered very low.

Specifically, the US team only has a 1.2% chance of winning the championship, Mexico 1%, while the Canadian team receives an even much lower number.

Although the predictions from the Opta supercomputer are only for reference before the tournament, a new competition format with a surge in the number of participating teams will certainly be a catalyst, making the tournament more unpredictable and full of explosive surprises than ever before.

Source: https://baovanhoa.vn/the-thao/sieu-may-tinh-opta-du-doan-nha-vo-dich-world-cup-2026-233610.html