The Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there is a 65% chance of a strong or very strong El Niño event occurring between October 2026 and February 2027.
This information was released in NOAA's May El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecast.
A very strong El Niño event could occur in late 2026 to early 2027. (Photo: Getty Images)
ENSO forecasts analyze and assess changes in sea surface temperature and wind direction in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, thereby predicting the Earth's natural oscillation phases: the warm phase (El Niño), the cold phase (La Niña), or neutral states, in order to provide advance warnings of natural disasters and extreme weather events.
El Niño occurs in cycles of approximately every two to seven years. This phenomenon occurs when changes in wind and ocean currents in the tropical Pacific Ocean cause sea surface temperatures to rise, leading to a chain reaction affecting the global climate.
A very strong El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific rise by about 2°C above average and is often informally referred to as a "super El Niño".
NOAA also forecasts an 82% chance that El Niño will form between now and July and last at least until February 2027. This level of certainty is an increase of about 20 percentage points compared to the forecast made in April.
The most recent El Niño event lasted from May 2023 to March 2024 and is considered one of the reasons why 2024 became the hottest year on record.
According to the Climate Brief report published in April, if the upcoming El Niño reaches a strong or very strong level, 2027 could surpass the temperature record of 2024.
"There are increasing signs that this could be the biggest El Niño since the 1870s," said Paul Roundy, professor of atmospheric and environmental science at the University of Albany (USA).
If a "super El Niño" occurs, the phenomenon could reach levels comparable to the catastrophic El Niño of 1877, which caused the global famine of 1876-1878, killing more than 50 million people, equivalent to about 3% of the world's population at the time.
Although the current economic and social context is vastly different from the late 19th century, experts warn that a strong El Niño could still put significant pressure on global food security, water resources, and the economy.
"The difference now is that our atmosphere and oceans are significantly warmer than they were in the 1870s, meaning that the accompanying extreme events could also be more severe," said Deepti Singh, director of the Center for Extreme Climate and Impact Experiment at Washington State University.
Past strong El Niño events have also left behind significant economic damage. For example, the 1997-1998 El Niño caused estimated global losses of between $32 billion and $96 billion.
Nathaniel Johnson, NOAA's ENSO forecasting expert, said a very strong El Niño event could affect fishing and agricultural production, while also increasing the risk of wildfires and storms in many parts of the world.
"Many people are already living in poverty. If crop yields continue to fall due to droughts or floods associated with El Niño, prices will rise even more sharply," said Liz Stephens, professor of climate risk and resilience at the University of Reading (UK).
She added: "We could face very significant humanitarian impacts this year, especially if the crisis in the Middle East continues to drag on."
NOAA says the next ENSO forecast will be released on June 11.
Source: https://vtcnews.vn/the-gioi-co-the-doi-mat-sieu-el-nino-manh-nhat-150-nam-ar1018688.html
![[Photo] General Secretary and President To Lam presides over a meeting on preparations for the review of one year of operation of the three-tiered government system.](https://vphoto.vietnam.vn/thumb/1200x675/vietnam/resource/IMAGE/2026/06/02/1780391821195_a1-bnd-4595-9717-jpg.webp)
Comment (0)