VN-Index surpasses peak, highest in 3 years
Last week (June 16-20), global stock markets were mostly in a downtrend. Many global stock markets fell from their recent peaks. Escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are adding to concerns about global macroeconomic instability.
The US stock market saw little change in points: S&P 500 fell -0.2%; Dow Jones rose +0.02%; and Nasdaq rose +0.2%. Meanwhile, in the Asian region, markets fluctuated in opposite directions. While Japan, South Korea, India and Vietnam increased, ASEAN markets such as Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. all decreased.
The Vietnamese stock market had a positive week in terms of scores. The VN-Index closed the week at 1,349.35 points, up +33.86 points, equivalent to an increase of +2.57% compared to the previous week. This is the highest closing price of the VN-Index in 3 years. The group of mid- and small-cap stocks also increased by +2.57% and +1.1% respectively, while the group of large-cap bluechips (VN30) also jumped +2.43% but has not yet exceeded the fluctuation range of last May.
On the Hanoi Stock Exchange, the two main indices also had positive developments. Of which, the HNX-Index increased by +2.25 points, closing the week at 227.07 points, equivalent to an increase of +1% compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the UPCoM-Index increased by +1.64 points, closing at 98.18 points.
Market breadth had a broad-based increase week with more than 80% of stock groups gaining points. Statistics show that some stock groups had strong increases such as: seafood (+6.99%), chemicals (+5.02%), oil and gas (+4.81%)... on the contrary, Viettel and logistics groups decreased slightly -0.5% and -0.25%.
Total market liquidity last week reached VND22,898 billion, up +4.2% compared to the previous week, mainly due to the restructuring of ETF funds. Meanwhile, matched liquidity increased insignificantly, only slightly increasing +0.2% to VND20,525 billion. However, the cash flow is still enough to circulate quickly across sectors.
Market breadth recorded more than 80% of stocks increasing in price, cash flow increased and created good performance in stock groups such as: oil and gas, banking, textiles, food, seafood, chemicals, industrial park real estate, technology...
According to statistics, liquidity since the beginning of June reached VND 23,473 billion, down -2.4% compared to May and nearly -11% lower than the same period. Accumulated from the beginning of the year, total market liquidity reached VND 20,086 billion, down -14% compared to the same period but still equivalent to the average level in 2024.
Foreign investors net sold -243 billion VND in the week when ETF funds restructured their portfolios. Last week, foreign investors net bought HPG (+640 billion VND), NVL (+343 billion VND), VPB (+227 billion VND), while net selling VIC (-983 billion VND), VHM (-523 billion VND)... Accumulated from the beginning of the year on the whole market, foreign investors net sold -43,672 billion VND.
Measuring the reaction of money flow around the peak
Thus, the domestic stock market is at a 3-year peak, but liquidity has not increased accordingly. During the week, matched liquidity only increased slightly. Since the beginning of June, liquidity has decreased by more than 2% compared to May and is about 11% lower than the same period last year. The positive thing is that cash flow is circulating well into some sectors that had stories last week, typically oil and gas and banking.
That means, the index has surpassed its peak but has not attracted new cash flows despite the restructuring of ETFs. In addition, although the VN-Index has surpassed its peak, very few stock groups have kept up with the index's growth, except for some groups such as seafood, banking, real estate, etc. Meanwhile, many other groups are still far from reaching their peaks, such as Vingroup, logistics, securities, etc. Therefore, technical divergence is taking place.
In the new week, VN-Index will retest the 1,350-point mark, which is also the mark to monitor the movement of cash flow. However, divergence cannot be ruled out and VN-Index may make a short-term adjustment, gradually bringing the index back to the psychological support zone of 1,300 points.
In fact, the impact information is still unpredictable and mixed between positive and negative. While the domestic macroeconomic situation is showing signs of optimism, last week, Minister of Finance Nguyen Van Thang informed the National Assembly that GDP growth in the second quarter was better than the first quarter and followed the growth scenario if there were no unusual factors in June. The revenue structure has shifted towards sustainability with the role of domestic revenue increasing. The 2025 budget revenue is expected to exceed the estimate by 15% to ensure resources for socio-economic tasks. Public investment activities also avoid spreading investment and focus on key projects with the goal of 100% disbursement in 2025.
However, the global situation is more unpredictable and can also negatively impact investor sentiment. US tariff policies, conflicts in the Middle East and the instability of the US dollar are making global monetary policy and inflation increasingly unpredictable. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25 - 4.5%. This result is not beyond previous forecasts, however, this decision is viewed by investors from many different perspectives, because the Fed still signals that it will cut interest rates twice this year; at the same time, there is an implicit warning about the risk of the economy falling into stagflation. Many central banks in the world have also adjusted interest rates down. However, unusual information in the world will affect investor sentiment, especially in the context of the peak score without attracting new money, global geopolitical tensions and the date of announcing the results of the Vietnam-US tariff negotiations is approaching.
Source: https://nhandan.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-tuan-moi-vn-index-cao-nhat-3-nam-huong-toi-moc-1350-diem-post888875.html
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