The oil market no longer has a buffer zone.

The signals in the global oil market this week leave no room for ambiguity: global inventories are dwindling, and the world has only weeks before the long-accumulated pressure truly erupts. This is not the forecast of pessimistic voices. This is the general consensus of analysts and leading energy trading firms worldwide – those who are monitoring every number, every day.

Oil storage tanks at a refinery in Ichihara, Chiba Prefecture, Japan. Photo: Kyodo/VNA.

In the two months since the Middle East conflict erupted in late February 2026, the world has relied on what it had accumulated: strategic reserves, the resilience of oil refineries, and, most importantly, the belief that the conflict would soon end. That belief is now more fragile than ever.

The oil market is just four weeks away from a "tipping point," the moment when prices will surge dramatically, as the lockdown of the Strait of Hormuz pushes global inventories below dangerous levels. This is the warning from Frederic Lasserre, head of research at Gunvor, one of the world's largest oil trading firms.

The problem isn't just the rising price of oil. The problem is that the structure of the global economy is approaching a point where adjustments will no longer happen gradually but abruptly.

The data is sending out a red flag. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. gasoline inventories as of April 24th stood at just 222 million barrels – the lowest level at this time of year in over a decade. This is happening even as the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been pumping one million barrels per day into the system – an emergency pumping rate that, by its very nature, can only be sustained for a limited time.

The U.S. is the world's largest oil consumer, and data from there is often a barometer of the "health" of the entire global energy market. The 210 million barrel mark on U.S. gasoline inventories is a figure traders are watching closely – not simply for technical reasons, but because it represents a psychological threshold: the point at which the market loses confidence in its ability to self-regulate. Currently, U.S. gasoline inventories stand at 222 million barrels and are continuing to decline.

Worse still, all of this is happening just as the US summer demand – the peak driving season – is about to begin. "We've just come through a transitional period, living off strategic inventory releases. But now we're heading straight into danger zone – right when summer demand is at its peak," warned Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

What makes this situation particularly dangerous is not just the numbers, but the persistent uncertainty in the global geopolitical landscape. For weeks, the market had been expecting the conflict to be resolved soon. That expectation was not unfounded, but the reality unfolded in a more complex way.

"We may be facing a shift in market sentiment, as people begin to realize that the messages from the US may not reflect reality," expert Helima Croft commented.

The latest statement from US President Donald Trump – that the lockdown could "last for months" – has forced markets to re-examine the entire scenario. This is clear evidence that a single political statement can instantly shake billions of dollars on global exchanges.

Brent crude oil prices surged to a four-year high, surpassing $126 per barrel this week. But that figure, while attention-grabbing, isn't the scariest thing. The scariest scenario is outlined by Amrita Sen, founder of the consulting firm Energy Aspects: "If the fighting continues until the end of June 2026, all reserves will be depleted. At that point, you can name any price you want for oil. We will no longer have any buffer zones," and she predicts Brent crude could climb to $150-$200 per barrel.

At that point, oil prices were no longer just a financial market issue. They became a concern for every factory, every gas station, every family's meal. Lasserre observed: "The consequences wouldn't just be about gasoline being pumped outside the station, but about factories closing en masse, followed by an economic recession."

And what makes recessions from energy shocks more devastating than other types of recessions is their inertia. Even if supply recovers, it will take many more months before we can expect an economic recovery to return.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/thi-truong-dau-mo-khong-con-vung-dem-20260503072940444.htm