A good time to start accumulating stocks for 2024.

The market is looking for an equilibrium point.

Following a 10.9% decline in October, analysts at VNDIRECT Securities believe the market is seeking equilibrium. Short-term investors should refrain from bottom-fishing and wait for more positive macroeconomic and market signals. VNDIRECT expects the 1,000-point level (+/- 20 points) to be the support zone for the overall market.

According to VNDIRECT, short-term investors can resume active trading when the market meets the following criteria: Firstly, the market has a leading stock group that attracts capital (forming a bottom before the VN-Index). Secondly, the bottoming sessions have trading volume at least 1.2 times higher than the 20-day average and a good upward movement. Subsequent trading sessions will see continued improvement in liquidity. Thirdly, cautious investors can begin trading when the VN-Index breaks out of the descending price channels and moves above the moving averages.

EVS Securities Company, on the other hand, presented two scenarios based on its analysis and current conditions. In the positive scenario (50% probability), after establishing a bottom, the VN-Index will move sideways, consolidating and tightening supply. Within this, there will be reasonable recovery phases with discounts from the past two months.

In the second, more cautious scenario (50% probability), when the VN-Index shows signs of recovery, attention should be paid to selling pressure to make investment decisions or reduce stock holdings due to the significant selling pressure from the 1,200-point level.

US government bond yields peak, stocks will recover.

The team of experts from VNDIRECT assesses that the biggest current market risk comes from the rising trend of US government bond yields. When US government bond yields peak, the stock market will have a good chance of recovering.

The risk of a US economic recession has been raised due to the inverted US bond yield curve. However, experts believe that current macroeconomic data does not clearly indicate this, so it is not yet a cause for concern and they will continue to monitor the situation.

"Although short-term market risks still exist, with valuation discounts nearly equivalent to the medium-term lows of November 2022 and the COVID-19 lows, this is a good time for medium- and long-term investors to start accumulating stocks for 2024," VNDIRECT stated.

In this context, investors should be mindful of limiting the use of margin leverage for medium- and long-term stock investments. Avoid concentrating investments in a single stock or industry group. Refrain from investing a large sum of money at one time. Investors can divide their long-term investments into multiple parts and disburse them gradually, or adopt an asset accumulation-style investment approach.

Potential stocks include those benefiting from the export recovery story and those involved in public investment. In addition, several real estate stocks with sound financial situations are expected to surge in the coming period once the (amended) bills related to the real estate sector are officially passed and take effect by the National Assembly.

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