According to the latest data released by the General Statistics Office (GSO), in May, up to May 25, 2023, the US dollar index in the international market reached 102.28 points, an increase of 0.78% compared to the previous month.
GSO analysis shows that the US dollar fluctuated, rising and falling alternately after the US Federal Reserve (FED) raised interest rates and uncertainty surrounding raising the US debt limit to prevent default.
Domestically, the average US dollar exchange rate on the free market is around 23,640 VND/USD. The US dollar price index in May 2023 decreased by 0.11% compared to the previous month; decreased by 2.37% compared to December 2022; increased by 1.73% compared to the same period last year; and the average for the first five months of 2023 increased by 2.91%.
After reaching a 10-week peak, the US dollar has fallen sharply despite the US having agreed on a debt ceiling to avoid default. Meanwhile, in the domestic market, the USD/VND exchange rate is fluctuating wildly. (Illustrative image)
As can be seen, in May, the USD/VND exchange rate was not dependent on the movements of the US dollar in the global market. This situation seems to have continued into the last days of May.
On May 31st, the US dollar slipped from its 10-week high, but the USD/VND exchange rate showed no clear trend.
The USD/VND exchange rate is showing a chaotic trend.
In the domestic market, the US dollar does not show a clear trend; the USD/VND exchange rate fluctuates, either increasing, decreasing, or remaining stable for each unit.
The Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development ( Agribank ) and the Vietnam Technological and Commercial Bank (Techcombank) are two representatives of the "bullish" side.
At Techcombank , the USD/VND exchange rate is being bought and sold at: 23,332 VND/USD – 23,665 VND/USD, an increase of 6 VND/USD for buying and 5 VND/USD for selling. At Agribank, the exchange rate is trading at: 23,305 VND/USD – 23,635 VND/USD, an increase of 5 VND/USD for both buying and selling.
The exchange rate at Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Industry and Trade (VietinBank) is being bought and sold at: 23,241 VND/USD – 23,661 VND/USD, an increase of 16 VND/USD in the buying rate but a decrease of 24 VND/USD in the selling rate.
At the Vietnam Foreign Trade Commercial Bank (Vietcombank), the listed exchange rate is 23,285 VND/USD – 23,655 VND/USD, unchanged from the end of yesterday. At the Vietnam Investment and Development Bank (BIDV) and the Vietnam Export Import Bank, the exchange rate remains unchanged and is listed at 23,335 VND/USD – 23,635 VND/USD and 23,340 VND/USD – 23,640 VND/USD respectively.
In the free market, the US dollar also fluctuates very little. In Hang Bac and Ha Trung streets, the "gold street" and "foreign currency street" in Hanoi, the USD/VND exchange rate is commonly traded at 23,440 VND/USD - 23,490 VND/USD.
The US dollar slipped from its 10-week high.
Currency markets experienced significant volatility mid-week as the dollar reached a 10-week high against parities and a six-month high against the yen before falling after Japanese officials raised the value of their currency.
Japan will closely monitor currency market movements and respond “appropriately” as needed, the country’s top currency diplomat said on Tuesday after financial authorities met to address the yen’s weakening to a six-month low against the dollar.
The yen strengthened following news of the extraordinary meeting and held onto those gains, rising 0.46% against the dollar from 139.80 earlier to 140.93, its highest level since November 2022.
The US dollar declined after reaching a 10-week high. The greenback experienced the most significant fluctuations against the Japanese yen. (Illustrative image)
Meanwhile, the dollar strengthened after U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy signed a temporary agreement on Sunday to suspend the U.S. debt ceiling and limit some federal spending to prevent a default.
That helped the dollar index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, reach 104.53 in European trading, its highest level in 10 weeks. But it then retreated, falling to a low of 103.870. Most recently, it fell 0.12% to 104.09, recovering some of its earlier losses.
Erik Bregar, director of foreign exchange and precious metals risk management at Silver Gold Bull, said: “A lot of that has to do with how low oil prices are today.”
Oil prices fell more than 4% on Tuesday as mixed messages from major producers clouded the supply outlook ahead of this week's OPEC+ meeting.
“People are scratching their heads: what does this mean for demand?” Bregar said. “And along with that, I think we’ve seen a bit of safe-haven bidding come back to the dollar.”
Adam Button, head of currency analysis at ForexLive, has hypothesized that the dollar's decline despite a debt ceiling agreement could lead to profit-taking at the end of the month.
The euro ultimately rose 0.2% to $1.0728, having earlier touched a two-month low, while the pound was last trading at $1.4061, up 0.46% on the day.
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