Central exchange rate increases sharply again, interbank interest rates decrease deeply

In July, the currency market recorded many fluctuations when the central exchange rate increased by 191 VND, the strongest increase in recent months. Last week alone, the central exchange rate increased by 85 VND. According to experts, the central exchange rate increased due to pressure from the international market.

Up 5 consecutive sessions

At the closing session of the week (August 1), the State Bank announced the central exchange rate at 25,249 VND/USD, up 9 VND compared to the previous session, the 5th consecutive increase since July 27, showing an upward adjustment trend of the central exchange rate in the context of returning exchange rate pressure.

Thus, with a 5% amplitude, the floor exchange rate of banks is 23,987 VND/USD, the ceiling exchange rate is 26,511 VND/USD. The reference exchange rate at the State Bank of Vietnam is 24,037 VND/USD (buy) - 26,461 VND/USD (sell).

The central exchange rate announced by the State Bank increased by 85 VND last week. Illustrative photo

In general, for the whole week (from July 28 to August 1), the central exchange rate announced by the State Bank increased in all 5 sessions of the week, with a total increase of 85 VND, while before that, the exchange rate reversed and decreased.

Increasing slower than the central rate, the listed exchange rate at commercial banks and the free market only adjusted slightly. For example, at the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam ( Vietcombank ), the USD exchange rate increased slightly last week but overall for the month decreased slightly compared to the previous month.

At the end of the week trading session, the USD price listed at Vietcombank was 26,000 VND/USD (buy) - 26,390 VND/USD (sell), up 70 VND compared to the end of last week but down 80 VND compared to the beginning of July.

At the Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam ( BIDV ), the common exchange rate is 26,030 VND/USD (buy) - 26,390 VND/USD (sell), up 80 VND per week, down 83 VND compared to the end of last month.

For the free market, the exchange rate decreased slightly by 10 VND, trading at 26,450 VND/USD almost throughout the week, except for July 29 when it increased slightly by 10 VND. Overall for the week, the free selling exchange rate decreased by 10 VND, to 26,440 - 26,450 VND/USD.

In the international market, the DXY index measuring the health of the USD compared to currencies in the world currency basket increased to 100.16 points after a long period of falling below the threshold of 100 points. This is the highest point of DXY in the past 2 months, after the US had a policy of imposing a basic global tax of 10%, and was ready to impose a reciprocal tax of up to 41% on countries that do not have a trade agreement with the US.

Experts say that the USD exchange rate has not stopped increasing due to the difference in USD and VND interest rates. Along with that, fluctuations in the domestic and world economies continue to affect the exchange rate. It is forecasted that the average exchange rate in 2025 will fluctuate between 26,600 - 26,750 VND/USD, an increase of 4.5 - 5% compared to the beginning of the year.

Also last week, the EUR showed signs of cooling down when the EUR exchange rate at Vietcombank decreased by 732 - 770.76 VND compared to the end of last week, trading down to 29,160 VND/EUR (buy) - 30,698 VND/EUR (sell).

The British Pound (GBP) exchange rate decreased by 552 - 575 VND, to 33,706 VND/GBP (buy) - 35,137 VND/GBP (sell). However, in general, over the past month, these two foreign currencies still increased strongly, in which, the EUR exchange rate increased by 848 - 924 VND/EUR in both buying and selling directions; GBP increased by 1,249 - 1,302 VND/EUR.

Good banking system liquidity

For the interbank interest rate market, in July, the interest rate level decreased sharply for all terms, especially overnight and 1 week, the decrease was 2.78% and 2.13% respectively.

The decrease in interbank market interest rates reflects the return of stability in the banking system's liquidity after increasing in early July. Since the beginning of the year, overnight interbank interest rates have increased dramatically twice, on June 30 and July 25, to 6.5% per year.

Along with the decrease in overnight and one-week terms, other terms also had interest rates falling sharply after reaching the threshold of 6.4-6.5%/year. Specifically, in the last trading session of July, the overnight interest rate was 3.67%/year; the one-week term decreased by 2.07%, to 4.4%/year; the two-week, one-month and three-month terms also simultaneously decreased by 0.7-2%.

In the open market last week, in the mortgage channel, there were 68,832.83 billion VND in winning bids for 7-day, 14-day, 28-day and 91-day terms. 70,598.45 billion VND matured. The State Bank stopped bidding for treasury bills. Thus, the State Bank slightly withdrew 1,765.62 billion VND last week through the open market channel. There were 209,105.11 billion VND circulating in the mortgage channel, there were no more treasury bills circulating in the market.

In July 2025, the State Bank injected a net VND 65,882.43 billion into the market through the open market channel.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/ty-gia-trung-tam-tang-manh-tro-lai-lai-suat-lien-ngan-hang-giam-sau-711257.html