The VN-Index could surpass the psychological threshold of 1,300.

Some stocks to watch on October 12th.

The VN-Index may surpass the psychological threshold of 1,300 points.

After a sharp drop of over 20 points at the beginning of October, the stock market attempted to regain momentum with gains in 4 out of 5 trading sessions last week. On the technical chart, the VN-Index closed the week up nearly 18 points and continued its sideways movement for the third consecutive week around the 1,260-1,300 point range. The MACD indicator showed a sideways trend and gradually converged, giving a relatively positive signal. In terms of market activity, the market traded relatively sideways last week. Market differentiation occurred, and capital tended to spread to large-cap stocks in the VN30 basket.

Blue-chip stocks played a supporting role in the market last week, with the VN30 index surging by more than 26 points, contributing significantly to the market's recovery. A negative point came from trading liquidity, as cautious sentiment pulled matching volume below the 20-day average. At the close of the trading week from October 7th to 11th, the VN-Index closed at 1,288.39 points, up 17.79 points (+1.40%).

At the close of the trading week from October 7th to 11th, the VN-Index closed at 1,288.39 points, a gain of 17.79 points.

Market liquidity declined sharply, down -8% compared to the average of the past 20 trading weeks. By the end of the trading week, the average trading volume on the HSX reached 571 million shares (-25.12%), equivalent to VND 15,228 billion (-17.87%) in trading value.

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According to experts at Kien Thiet Securities Company (CSI), the VN-Index recorded its fourth consecutive day of gains, but the increase was quite weak and liquidity decreased sharply. The trading volume on the HSX on the last trading day of the week (October 11th) decreased (-29.3%) compared to the 20-day average, indicating that the index's upward momentum lacked support, so the recovery trend has not yet been confirmed. Despite four consecutive days of gains, the main trend is sideways movement within a narrow range. Nevertheless, this is a positive sign showing that the selling pressure from the previous week's decline has weakened considerably.

“The VN-Index may surpass the psychological threshold of 1,300 points and head towards the resistance level of 1,320 – 1,330 points. However, given the current developments, the market likely needs more time to accumulate momentum. Since the confirmation signal is not yet clear, investors should limit opening new buying positions, but continue to gradually increase their holdings in profitable stocks in their portfolios. Mobilizing all buying power requires waiting for a clearer confirmation signal before taking action,” a CSI expert stated.

The VN-Index can be expected to re-establish the 1,300-point resistance level.

According to the analysis team at ASEAN Securities Company (ASEANSC), liquidity decreased quite sharply in the last trading session of the week with the market fluctuating, indicating a cautious sentiment as the index approached the resistance zone of 1,292-1,300 points. The rapid rotation of capital between sectors helped consolidate the index's upward momentum; however, the possibility of a breakout is not yet clear due to weak trend strength and low consensus. The market is expected to continue consolidating tightly around the support zone of 1,283 points with waiting demand ready for a more decisive upward move later.

The VN-Index can be expected to re-establish the 1,300-point resistance level (Illustrative image: KT)

“We have a positive outlook on the medium and long-term market prospects; however, investors should be aware of potential risks arising from upcoming US stock market news. Therefore, close monitoring of global markets is necessary to confirm how long the upward trend can continue. Investors should maintain a moderate portfolio allocation, avoid chasing rallies, and focus their portfolios on stocks with strong fundamentals and positive Q3 earnings, while having sufficient cash ready to be deployed when large-cap stocks become attractive,” an ASEANSC expert noted.

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According to experts at Saigon - Hanoi Securities Company (SHS), in the short term, the VN-Index is expected to rise above the support zone around 1,275 points, corresponding to the current 20-day moving average, with the goal of retesting the very strong, psychological resistance level of 1,300 points. In a positive scenario, if the VN-Index maintains its short-term upward trend, it can be expected to reach the 1,300-point resistance level this week (October 14-18). Currently, the VN-Index is fluctuating within a narrow range of 1,280-1,300 points, and further market developments are needed as it approaches the aforementioned resistance zone. However, with positive macroeconomic conditions and strong business performance, it is possible to expect the VN-Index to break through this strong resistance in the near future.

In the medium term, the VN-Index is expected to grow above the support zone around 1,250 points, heading towards 1,300 points, and potentially extending to 1,320 points. The expectation is that the VN-Index will surpass 1,300 points to reach higher levels above 1,320 points. The 1,300-1,320 point range represents very strong resistance levels, including the peak prices of June-August 2022 and the peak prices of the first few months of 2024. This is a fundamental resistance zone; the market can only overcome these strong resistance levels when there are positive macroeconomic support factors, outstanding business growth, and when uncertainties such as geopolitical tensions like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East subside.

“Investors may consider increasing their holdings when macroeconomic factors exceed expectations and market capitalization is at a reasonable level. However, they should not chase the market as the VN-Index continues towards 1,300 points. Investors should maintain a reasonable holding level, below average, and consider increasing their holdings when the market is receiving earnings reports. Investment targets should be focused on leading stocks with strong fundamentals, good Q2 earnings performance, and positive Q3 earnings prospects,” an expert from SHS recommended.

Source: https://vov.vn/thi-truong/chung-khoan/nhan-dinh-chung-khoan-1410-1810-vn-index-co-the-vuot-qua-nguong-tam-ly-1300-post1127881.vov