Q3 business picture is gloomy, VN-Index needs more motivation

VN-Index "struggles" around 1,280 points; A series of businesses are delisted; Dividend payment schedule; Margin loan balance skyrockets in the third quarter.

VN-Index "struggles" around the 1,280 point area

The market closed the week at 1,285.46 points after a continuous increase/decrease in the previous sessions. Market breadth was tilted towards the selling side with 211 stocks falling (3 stocks "on the floor"), 157 stocks rising (2 stocks "on the ceiling") and 72 stocks moving sideways. The VN30 group "struggled" with 13 stocks falling, 12 stocks increasing and 5 stocks moving sideways. Liquidity was at an average level, around the 15,000 billion VND mark.

In terms of industry groups, market breadth tilted to the negative side with many industries losing points, including real estate, securities, insurance, etc.; on the contrary, the retail - consumer sector traded positively.

The group of "pillar" stocks plays a supporting role in the trading market at the 1,280 point area, focusing on the following industries: banking, real estate, and retail.

Stock groups affecting the index last week

Source: SSI iBoard

Notable among them is STB ( Sacombank , HOSE) which broke the historical peak and increased positively throughout the past week.

Next are VHM (Vinhomes, HOSE), MWG (Mobile World, HOSE), MSB (MSB, HOSE), EIB (Eximbank, HOSE), MBB ( MBBank , HOSE), DXG (Dat Xanh Real Estate, HOSE),...

Foreign investors turned around, maintaining net sales for the 6th consecutive session, with pressure focused on the codes: FUESSVFL, MSB (MSB, HOSE), VHM (Vinhomes, HOSE), VCI (Vietcap Securities, HOSE), CTG (ViettinBank, HOSE),... On the buying side, this group of investors focused on the codes MWG (Mobile World , HOSE), YEG, EIB (Eximbank, HOSE),...

Overall, last week, there were times when the VN-Index exceeded 1,290 points, but at the end of the session, the index quickly returned to 1,280 points, the market is in the accumulation phase. Although it has exceeded the support zone of 1,270 - 1,275 points, liquidity has not exploded.

Margin loan balance in the third quarter of 2024 broke the peak

The stock market experienced a negative third quarter with fluctuations and sideways movements throughout the period. However, outstanding margin loans at securities companies continued to increase and break the peak.

Specifically, at the end of June, the margin balance at securities companies reached nearly VND218,900 billion, the highest level in history. However, at the end of the third quarter, the margin balance statistics of over 70 securities companies reached more than VND235,000 billion, setting a new record here.

Most of the major securities companies recorded growth in margin debt in the third quarter, in which, LPBank typically increased sharply from 504 billion VND to 3,0004 billion VND. In addition, there are some other names: TCBS reached 25,483 billion VND, Mirae Asset (MAS) increased to 19,291 billion VND, Vietcap reached 10,111 billion VND.

On the contrary, SSI, VNDirect, Maybank, BVS and MBS had a slight decrease.

This development comes in the context of the market being "stuck" in the 1,200 - 1,300 point range, lacking a breakthrough commensurate with the expected potential. The total average transaction value on the three floors in the third quarter decreased by 26.5% compared to the previous quarter, reaching 18,561 billion VND/session.

A series of famous stocks were delisted

Recently, the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE) decided to delist shares of Dong A Plastics Group Corporation (DAG) , effective from October 22, 2024.

Previously, DAG's last trading day at HOSE was on August 14, 2024 when it was suspended from trading on August 15, 2024.

DAG shares plummeted to 1,430 VND/share before being suspended and delisted from the stock exchange (Photo: SSI iBoard)

The reason is because DAG has seriously violated information disclosure. HOSE believes that since the time of suspension of trading until now, Dong A Plastics' violations of information disclosure have not been resolved, are likely to continue and prolong, seriously violating the obligation to disclose information and affecting the rights of shareholders.

Over the past two years, Dong A Plastics' business has plummeted. DAG lost 606 billion VND in 2023 and nearly 67 billion VND in the first half of this year.

In the first half of this year, a series of well-known stocks were delisted, mainly due to three consecutive years of business losses, negative equity, accumulated losses exceeding charter capital, violations of information disclosure obligations, and auditors refusing to give opinions on financial statements.

Such as HNG stock of Hoang Anh Gia Lai International Agriculture Joint Stock Company (HAGL Agrico). The reason is that this stock has had 3 consecutive years of losses. In 2021, it lost more than 1,119 billion VND, in 2022, it lost more than 3,576 billion VND, and in 2023, it lost more than 1,098 billion VND.

Pursuant to Decree No. 155/2020/ND-CP, all HNG shares will be delisted and traded on the UPCoM floor.

Similarly, shares of Hoa Binh Construction Group Corporation (HBC) were also delisted by HOSE after receiving the company's 2023 audited separate and consolidated financial statements.

SDT shares of Song Da 10 Joint Stock Company were also delisted from HNX from January 24 and are currently trading on UPCoM, due to 3 consecutive years of business losses.

Profit increased 103 times, construction of new HUD4 completed 34% of plan

According to a recent announcement, HUD4 Investment and Construction Joint Stock Company (HU4, UPCoM) achieved net revenue of nearly 102 billion VND, an increase of nearly 16 times compared to the same period, mainly coming from the real estate sector. In which, the construction and installation sector remained unchanged, continuing to have "blank" revenue as in the same period. Profit after tax reached more than 7 billion VND, a sharp increase of 19.125% compared to the same period.

HU4 stock price movements in the past 6 months on the floor (Photo: SSI iBoard)

In the first 9 months of the year, the company earned 173 billion VND in net revenue and nearly 9 billion VND in after-tax profit, up 14 times and 103 times respectively compared to the same period last year.

Despite the "huge" growth, the numbers are still quite modest. Compared to the 2024 plan, the company has only completed 14% of revenue and 34% of profit.

As of September 30, HUD4's total assets reached VND731 billion, a slight increase of 1%. Of which, cash was more than VND10 billion, down 23%; short-term receivables increased sharply by 122%, to more than VND131 billion, mainly other receivables, from VND1.4 billion at the beginning of the year to more than VND66 billion, however, the enterprise did not explain in detail about this item.

Comments and recommendations

Mr. Truong The Vinh, consultant, Mirae Asset Securities , assessed that most businesses have announced their business results for the third quarter of 2024, but most industries' profits are showing signs of going sideways or even decreasing. This has somewhat affected the index and liquidity is somewhat "disappointing" when expectations for the results are too high, the market is trading with a more cautious and cautious mentality.

VN-Index needs more momentum to "escape" the 1,300-point resistance zone

While the figures may not be so negative as to prompt a sell-off, they are unlikely to provide much impetus for increased buying.

Therefore, the market may have to endure sideways accumulation pressure at the beginning of the week and needs more positive information for new cash flow to trigger an uptrend instead of moving sideways as it is now.

Investors are advised to monitor exchange rate fluctuations, which is also the reason for foreign investors' net selling last week when the exchange rate increased again. In addition, October variables from the US Presidential election, the level of interest rate cuts by the FED in 2024, tensions in the Middle East, on the Korean peninsula, etc. can more or less affect market sentiment during the session.

But it will be an opportunity to buy at low prices with a group of potential stocks with intrinsic value. Stocks to consider: Hydropower: REE (REE Refrigeration Electrical Engineering, HOSE); Real Estate: DIG (DIC Group, HOSE), PDR (Phat Dat Real Estate, HOSE); Rubber: GVR (Vietnam Rubber Industry, HOSE)

In the long term, VN-Index still has attractive valuation in the region with stories of market upgrade and monetary easing policy.

TPS Securities said that VN-Index has not yet surpassed the resistance zone of 1,300 points, selling pressure remains, investors should be more cautious next week and take partial profits, waiting to buy at a lower support zone. If more positive, VN-Index can break out of the 1,300 point zone, at this time investors can buy but avoid chasing if liquidity is not high.

BSC Securities commented that the sideways trend at 1,285 points has not ended yet, the market needs more technical signals and supportive liquidity to determine the trend.

Dividend payment schedule this week

According to statistics, there are 12 enterprises that have dividend rights from October 21-25, of which 8 enterprises pay in cash, 3 enterprises pay in shares and 1 enterprise issues additional shares.

The highest rate is 33%, the lowest is 5%.

3 businesses pay by stock:

TDG Global Investment JSC ( SCI, HNX), ex-right trading date is October 24, rate 20%.

MHC Corporation (MHC, HOSE), ex-dividend date is October 21, rate 5%.

TDG Global Investment JSC ( TDG, HOSE), ex-right trading date is October 21, rate 20%.

1 additional issuer:

Gemadept Corporation (G MD, HOSE), ex-right trading date is October 22, rate 33%.

Cash dividend payment schedule

*Ex-dividend date: is the transaction date on which the buyer, upon establishing ownership of shares, will not enjoy related rights such as the right to receive dividends, the right to buy additional issued shares, but will still enjoy the right to attend the shareholders' meeting.

Code	Floor	Education Day	Day TH	Proportion
VPH	HOSE	October 25	November 4	5%
CCL	HOSE	October 24	November 25	5%
DNN	UPCOM	October 24	November 4	7%
DPR	HOSE	October 21	December 20	15%
TTT	HNX	October 21	November 25	20%
AVC	UPCOM	October 21	October 31	17%
VGC	HOSE	October 21	November 14	12.5%
MGG	UPCOM	October 21	October 30	15%

Source: https://phunuvietnam.vn/chung-khoan-tuan-21-10-25-10-buc-tranh-kinh-doanh-quy-3-am-dam-vn-index-can-them-dong-luc-but-pha-20241021075600954.htm