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The business outlook for the third quarter was bleak; the VN-Index needs more momentum.

Việt NamViệt Nam21/10/2024


VN-Index fluctuates around 1,280 points; A series of companies delisted; Dividend payment schedule; Margin loan balances surged in Q3.

VN-Index fluctuates around the 1,280 point mark.

The market closed the week at 1,285.46 points after a period of fluctuating gains and losses throughout the week. Market breadth leaned towards the selling side with 211 declining stocks (3 hitting the floor price), 157 rising stocks (2 hitting the ceiling price), and 72 unchanged. The VN30 group showed mixed performance with 13 declining stocks, 12 rising stocks, and 5 unchanged stocks. Liquidity was at an average level, around 15,000 billion VND.

In terms of sectors, market breadth leaned towards the negative with many sectors declining, including real estate, securities, insurance, etc.; conversely, the retail and consumer sector traded positively.

The group of "pillar" stocks played a supporting role in the market trading around 1,280 points, with a focus on the banking, real estate, and retail sectors.

Stock groups that influenced the index last week

Chứng khoán tuần 21/10 – 25/10: Bức tranh kinh doanh quý 3 ảm đạm, VN-Index cần thêm động lực bứt phá- Ảnh 1.

Source: SSI iBoard

Notably, STB ( Sacombank , HOSE) broke its historical high and saw positive gains throughout the past week.

Next are VHM (Vinhomes, HOSE), MWG (Mobile World, HOSE), MSB (MSB, HOSE), EIB (Eximbank, HOSE), MBB ( MBBank , HOSE), DXG (Dat Xanh Real Estate, HOSE),…

Foreign investors reversed course, maintaining net selling for the sixth consecutive session, with selling pressure concentrated on stocks such as FUESSVFL, MSB (MSB, HOSE), VHM (Vinhomes, HOSE), VCI (Vietcap Securities, HOSE), CTG (ViettinBank, HOSE),… On the buying side, this group of investors focused on stocks such as MWG (Mobile World , HOSE), YEG, EIB (Eximbank, HOSE),…

Overall this past week, the VN-Index briefly surpassed 1,290 points, but quickly returned to the 1,280-point level by the end of the session, indicating a market consolidation phase. Despite breaking through the 1,270-1,275 point support zone, liquidity has not yet surged.

Margin loan balances in Q3 2024 reached a new high.

The stock market experienced a less-than-positive third quarter, with continuous fluctuations and sideways movement throughout the period. However, margin lending at securities companies continued to increase and broke records.

Specifically, at the end of June, margin debt at securities companies reached nearly 218,900 billion VND, the highest level in history. However, by the end of the third quarter, statistics show that margin debt across 70 securities companies had reached over 235,000 billion VND, setting a new record there.

Most major securities companies recorded growth in margin loan balances in the third quarter, notably LPBank, which saw a sharp increase from VND 504 billion to VND 3,0004 billion. Other notable examples include TCBS reaching VND 25,483 billion, Mirae Asset (MAS) increasing to VND 19,291 billion, and Vietcap reaching VND 10,111 billion.

Conversely, SSI, VNDirect, Maybank, BVS, and MBS experienced slight declines.

This development occurred in the context of the market being "stuck" in the 1,200-1,300 point range, lacking a breakthrough commensurate with the expected potential. The average total trading value on the three exchanges in the third quarter decreased by 26.5% compared to the previous quarter, reaching 18,561 billion VND/session.

A series of well-known stocks were delisted.

Recently, the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE) decided to delist the shares of Dong A Plastic Group Joint Stock Company (DAG) , effective from October 22, 2024.

Previously, DAG's last trading day on HOSE was August 14, 2024, before being placed under trading suspension on August 15, 2024.

Chứng khoán tuần 21/10 – 25/10: Bức tranh kinh doanh quý 3 ảm đạm, VN-Index cần thêm động lực bứt phá- Ảnh 2.

DAG shares plummeted to 1,430 VND/share before being suspended and delisted from the stock exchange (Photo: SSI iBoard)

The reason is that DAG has seriously violated information disclosure regulations. HOSE believes that since the suspension of trading, Dong A Plastic's information disclosure violations have not been rectified, are likely to continue and persist, seriously violating information disclosure obligations and affecting the rights of shareholders.

Over the past two years, Dong A Plastic's business has been in decline. DAG incurred a loss of 606 billion VND in 2023 and nearly 67 billion VND in the first half of this year.

In the first half of this year, a series of well-known stocks were delisted, mainly due to three consecutive years of business losses, negative equity, accumulated losses exceeding charter capital, violations of information disclosure obligations, and auditors refusing to give an opinion on financial statements.

For example, the HNG stock of Hoang Anh Gia Lai International Agriculture Joint Stock Company (HAGL Agrico). The reason is that this stock has suffered losses for three consecutive years. In 2021, it lost over 1,119 billion VND, in 2022 over 3,576 billion VND, and in 2023 over 1,098 billion VND.

Based on Decree No. 155/2020/ND-CP, all HNG shares will be delisted and traded on the UPCoM exchange.

Similarly, shares of Hoa Binh Construction Group Joint Stock Company (HBC) were also delisted by HOSE after receiving the company's audited separate and consolidated financial statements for 2023.

The shares of Song Da 10 Joint Stock Company (SDT) were also delisted from the HNX on January 24th and are currently trading on UPCoM, due to business losses for three consecutive years.

Profits increased 103 times, and the construction of the new HUD4 building is only 34% complete.

According to a recent announcement, HUD4 Investment and Construction Joint Stock Company (HU4, UPCoM) achieved net revenue of nearly 102 billion VND, an increase of almost 16 times compared to the same period last year, mainly from the real estate sector. The construction sector remained unchanged, continuing to have no revenue like the same period last year. Profit after tax reached over 7 billion VND, a sharp increase of 19.125% compared to the same period last year.

Chứng khoán tuần 21/10 – 25/10: Bức tranh kinh doanh quý 3 ảm đạm, VN-Index cần thêm động lực bứt phá- Ảnh 3.

HU4 stock price performance over the past 6 months on the exchange (Image: SSI iBoard)

In the first nine months of the year, the company generated 173 billion VND in net revenue and nearly 9 billion VND in after-tax profit, representing increases of 14 times and 103 times respectively compared to the same period last year.

Despite the impressive growth, the figures are still quite modest; compared to the 2024 full-year plan, the company has only achieved 14% of its revenue target and 34% of its profit target.

As of September 30th, HUD4's total assets reached VND 731 billion, a slight increase of 1%. Of this, cash amounted to over VND 10 billion, a decrease of 23%; short-term receivables increased sharply by 122%, to over VND 131 billion, mainly due to other receivables, which rose from VND 1.4 billion at the beginning of the year to over VND 66 billion. However, the company did not provide detailed explanations for this item.

Assessment and recommendations

According to Mr. Truong The Vinh, a consultant at Mirae Asset Securities , most businesses have announced their Q3 2024 business results, but the majority of sectors are showing signs of stagnant or even declining profits. This has somewhat impacted the index, and liquidity has been somewhat "disappointing" as expectations for results were too high, leading to a more cautious and wary trading sentiment.

Chứng khoán tuần 21/10 – 25/10: Bức tranh kinh doanh quý 3 ảm đạm, VN-Index cần thêm động lực bứt phá- Ảnh 4.

The VN-Index needs more momentum to break out of the 1,300-point resistance zone.

While the data may not be negative enough to trigger a sell-off, it's unlikely to create a significant incentive for increased buying activity.

Therefore, the market is likely to experience sideways consolidation pressure at the beginning of the week and needs more positive information for new capital inflows to trigger an upward trend instead of the current sideways movement.

Investors are advised to monitor exchange rate fluctuations, which was the reason for the net selling by foreign investors last week when the exchange rate rose again. In addition, variables in October from the US presidential election, the extent of the Fed's interest rate cuts in 2024, tensions in the Middle East, on the Korean Peninsula, etc., could affect market sentiment to some extent during the session.

However, this will be an opportunity to buy at low prices with a group of promising stocks that have intrinsic value. Stocks to consider: Hydropower: REE (REE Electrical and Refrigeration Engineering, HOSE); Real Estate: DIG (DIC Group, HOSE), PDR (Phat Dat Real Estate, HOSE); Rubber: GVR (Vietnam Rubber Industry Corporation, HOSE)

In the long term, the VN-Index remains attractively valued in the region, given the prospects of market upgrades and loose monetary policies.

TPS Securities stated that the VN-Index has yet to break through the 1,300-point resistance level, selling pressure persists, and investors should be more cautious next week and consider taking partial profits, waiting to buy at lower support levels. If conditions are more positive, the VN-Index could break through the 1,300-point level; at that point, investors could buy but should avoid chasing prices if liquidity is low.

BSC Securities believes that the sideways trend at 1,285 points is not yet over; the market needs more technical signals and supporting liquidity to determine the trend.

Dividend payment schedule this week

According to statistics, 12 companies finalized dividend entitlements between October 21-25, of which 8 companies paid in cash, 3 companies paid in shares, and 1 company issued additional shares.

The highest percentage was 33%, and the lowest was 5%.

3 companies paid dividends in shares:

TDG Global Investment Joint Stock Company ( SCI, HNX), the ex-dividend date is October 24th, with a dividend rate of 20%.

MHC Joint Stock Company (MHC, HOSE), the ex-dividend date is October 21st, with a dividend rate of 5%.

TDG Global Investment Joint Stock Company ( TDG, HOSE), the ex-dividend date is October 21st, with a dividend rate of 20%.

One company issued additional shares:

Gemadept Joint Stock Company (G MD, HOSE), the ex-dividend date is October 22nd, with a dividend yield of 33%.

Cash dividend payment schedule

*Ex-dividend date: This is the trading day on which a buyer, upon establishing ownership of the shares, will no longer be entitled to related rights such as the right to receive dividends or the right to subscribe to newly issued shares, but will still retain the right to attend the shareholders' meeting.

Code Floor Ex-dividend date TH Day Proportion
VPH HOSE October 25th 4/11 5%
CCL HOSE October 24th November 25th 5%
DNN UPCOM October 24th 4/11 7%
DPR HOSE October 21st December 20th 15%
TTT HNX October 21st November 25th 20%
AVC UPCOM October 21st October 31st 17%
VGC HOSE October 21st November 14th 12.5%
MGG UPCOM October 21st October 30th 15%

Source: https://phunuvietnam.vn/chung-khoan-tuan-21-10-25-10-buc-tranh-kinh-doanh-quy-3-am-dam-vn-index-can-them-dong-luc-but-pha-20241021075600954.htm


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