There is one thing in common between the 2016 and 2020 US presidential elections: The winner of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania entered the White House. According to AdImpact data, since July, when Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee, both campaigns have spent the most money on advertising in Pennsylvania, followed by Michigan and Wisconsin, which are fourth. Bob Shrum, a longtime Democratic strategist, said Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have played a pivotal role in US presidential elections for a long time because these three battleground states represent many of the polarizing characteristics that shape American
politics . Mr. Shrum cited the differences in views between urban and rural areas, between the white-collar and working-class. Meanwhile, other experts point out that in the past, these three states have tended to swing and vote similarly, while other large states have been more stable and have chosen a certain party: California, New York and Illinois tend to lean Democratic, while Texas, Florida and Ohio tend to favor Republicans. According to
CNN , these three states have so many characteristics in common that expert Tad Devine lumped them together into “a single state called Mi-Pa-Wi.”
Lots in common
Compared to the U.S. as a whole, the three states are not very racially diverse. Whites make up three-quarters of the population of Michigan and Pennsylvania and four-fifths of Wisconsin. While Latino populations are growing, blacks remain the largest minority group. The three states are also older than the nation as a whole, with seniors making up about one-fifth. All three states don’t have large immigrant populations, which make up about 7% of the population in Michigan and Pennsylvania and just 5% in Wisconsin, but minority populations have grown in recent years. As
education has become a more important predictor of political allegiance, the three states have about a third of their population with at least a four-year degree, slightly lower than the nation as a whole. Mi-Pa-Wi are also major manufacturing states that have seen significant job losses since 2000, but have also seen job gains of about 20,000 to 30,000 since Joe Biden took office. The religious orientation of the three states is also similar. White Christians tend to be Republicans, making up just over 50%. Meanwhile, atheists are staunch Democratic voters, making up about a quarter of the population.
Wisconsin
On paper, Wisconsin should be the toughest state for Democrats in 2024. Election results over the past few decades have often reflected Wisconsin’s demographic and geographic challenges for Democrats. Not only is Wisconsin’s minority population smaller than the other two states, but whites without a college degree—the modern Republican core—account for three-fifths of the vote, compared with about half in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Whites and blue-collar workers in small towns and rural areas—who are increasingly turning Republican—also account for a large share of the vote in Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Democrats don’t have as big an advantage in Wisconsin’s largest metropolitan area as the other two states. The final factor that makes Wisconsin less attractive to Democrats is that unions represent only about half of the private-sector workforce, less than the other two states.
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| Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are considered three key states in the 2024 US presidential election. Photo: New York Times. |
But strategists see Wisconsin as the best choice for Harris and the toughest challenge for Trump. That’s because Wisconsin’s second-largest city, Madison, is growing fast. Even Dane County, which includes Madison and its suburbs, is growing faster than any other county in Wisconsin and is turning blue. Dane County’s Democratic vote share has increased from 70% in 2016 to 75% in 2018 and 2020 (presidential); 79% in 2022 (governorship) and a whopping 82% in 2023 (Supreme Court). Another reason is that Democrats remain competitive in smaller districts, while a larger share of Wisconsin’s population lives in midsize cities than in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Michigan
Michigan has been the most Democratic of the three states since 2000. Democrats currently control all four major state offices, both U.S. Senate seats, and both houses of the state legislature. In 2024, Michigan has an “X-factor.” That X-factor is the anger of its large Arab-American community, which has historically supported the Democrats but is now disaffected with the Biden administration’s handling of the conflict in the Gaza Strip. That discontent is even more widespread among young college voters. In addition, auto workers are also swayed by Trump’s stance, as the Republican candidate has argued that Biden’s push to accelerate the transition to electric vehicles will destroy domestic jobs. However, Democrats have an advantage in their support for abortion rights in the suburbs for educated workers, especially women. In addition, many people are also optimistic about Ms. Harris's ability to convince black voters to go to the polls.
Pennsylvania
For Democrats, Pennsylvania is the toughest state to play. Democrats are worried about declining turnout, while Mr. Trump has some advantages among black voters in Philadelphia. Republicans have also built up a loyal following among white non-college voters. Mr. Trump is more focused on small and midsize communities in Pennsylvania than in the other two states, where middle-income areas outside urban centers are dominated by working-class white voters. All of the novelty of 2024 makes Michigan a Republican advantage, despite the Democrats’ demographic strength, according to Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini. He sees Mr. Trump’s best chance of winning Pennsylvania, of the three states.
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| Mr. Trump is considered to have many advantages in Pennsylvania. Photo: New York Times. |
An older white Catholic with roots in the state, Mr. Ruffini said Mr. Biden carries eastern Pennsylvania. “I don’t think Harris can do that,” he said. “Plus, if environmental issues are more important in Pennsylvania than elsewhere, Harris will be at a disadvantage because of shale, while Trump has sympathy for the assassination attempt in Butler.” But Democrats see Ms. Harris as more likely to win in the Philadelphia suburbs, with their pro-abortion-rights voters and increased turnout among black voters.
Parallel throughout American political history
Michigan and Pennsylvania have been together for a long time. For 76 years from 1856, the two states supported the same presidential candidate, until 1932, when Franklin D. Roosevelt won Michigan and Pennsylvania remained loyal to incumbent President Herbert Hoover. Eight years later, in 1940, the two states split again, when Roosevelt easily won Pennsylvania and Michigan went to Republican Wendell Willkie. Since then, Michigan and Pennsylvania have voted for the same candidate, except in 1976. In all, Michigan and Pennsylvania have only split four times in the 42 presidential elections since Republicans and Democrats have dominated the American political system. Along with Wisconsin, the trio has become the most consistent pivot point in American politics. Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin have voted for the same presidential candidate in 17 of 26 elections since 1920, and the candidate who won three states has won 15 of 17. In the past century, the only presidential candidates to win all three states but still lose overall were Democrat Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004. Republican Thomas Dewey in 1948 and Democrat Hubert Humphrey in 1968 are the only two to win two-thirds of the states and still lose. Aside from 2014, the three states have elected the same party for governor since 1994. Still, there’s no guarantee that all three states will swing in the same direction in November. And there’s no guarantee that the candidate who wins more states will win the White House. Harris risks winning Michigan and Wisconsin but still losing if Trump wins Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina. But one thing is certain: Mi-Pa-Wi is a fierce “battlefield” and will play a key role in the upcoming election.
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