Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Vice President of Vietnam Real Estate Association, President of Vietnam Real Estate Brokers Association said: " We predict that the fourth quarter of 2023 will be the time to start recovering. Since the third quarter of 2023, there have been many positive signs. Of course, compared to the period of 2018 - 2019, it is still far away, only a few thousand compared to tens of thousands of transactions in the past. But in this difficult time, a few thousand is an encouraging number, creating momentum for the fourth quarter of 2023 and the first quarter of 2024. We hope to have many improvements when policies to remove difficulties have a positive impact on the market ," Mr. Dinh emphasized.
According to Mr. Dinh, at this time, the real estate market has had positive changes. With the Government 's drastic intervention, in the first quarter of 2023, supply decreased severely, almost stagnant, with only more than 1,000 transactions, but in the second quarter of 2023, there was a re-offer, with about 3,700 successful transactions.
By the third quarter of 2023, in the first two months of the quarter, there were more than 5,000 successful transactions and 300 projects nationwide were launched for sale.
In addition, if the first quarter of 2023 is not ready to put the goods on sale, in the third quarter of 2023, due to signs of increased confidence, transactions and goods sources will increase.
With such momentum, the phenomenon of increased supply to the market appears more often, of course mainly old projects. The projects all show signs of product restructuring and the adjusted prices are relatively close to the market, so actual transactions are increasing.
Of which, 70% of transactions come from apartments, while the land segment has fewer transactions because prices have not had many strong adjustments.
These show that the Government's management is starting to show results. However, in the coming time, it is necessary to speed up the completion of laws, mechanisms and policies.
According to experts, the fourth quarter of 2023 is when the real estate market begins to recover. (Illustration photo)
Sharing the same view, Dr. Can Van Luc - Chief Economist of BIDV , member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council also commented that the real estate market has been recovering. However, compared to the golden time, it has only recovered about 20-30%.
In the coming time, the real estate market will develop according to a better scenario, the big "boost" will start from the beginning of the first quarter of 2024, because interest rates have been decreasing; the penetration of policies at that time will also be better, especially with the level of transparency when 4 laws are passed by the National Assembly in the coming October.
In addition, the cases of law violations this year will basically be handled. By that time, the economic and macroeconomic recovery situation of Vietnam and the world will also be clearer.
" Therefore, in my opinion, early 2024 will be a favorable time for investors to make investment decisions, because interest rates have decreased and real estate prices have been reasonably regulated, " the expert said.
Similarly, Dr. Nguyen Van Khoi - Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association, former Vice Chairman of the Hanoi People's Committee also said that from the third quarter of 2023 to the first two quarters of 2024, there will be more positive highlights. In particular, the social housing and industrial real estate segments will have the most positive signs.
With commercial housing, existing projects are still facing difficulties due to 47 legal issues. Among them, the issue of the project having residential land to be approved by the investor is the biggest problem. Hopefully, the upcoming completion of the law will make it easier for new projects.
Despite the optimistic outlook, experts say the real estate market still has many problems that need to be addressed.
Prof. Dr. Dang Hung Vo stated that to “rescue” the real estate market, the entire political system needs to be decisively involved. Because the biggest bottleneck of the real estate market lies in planning and law. In particular, we have not yet defined planning in the development of the real estate market.
Planning in the subsidy mechanism is a decree, but in the market mechanism it is an orientation. The current way of building laws is both redundant and insufficient, the way of building plans is unclear. While in the world, it is clearly stipulated that socio-economic development planning is strategic planning, land use planning is regional planning. Urban and rural planning is detailed planning.
In fact, the opportunity for real estate development is still very large. According to the World Bank's calculations, 20% of Vietnam's population cannot afford to buy a house, the next 60% can only afford to buy social housing, and social housing in Vietnam today is already double the price of 10 years ago.
While housing prices are high, we only use credit support packages that are 1.5-2% lower than commercial credit. And only 20% of people can afford to buy mid-range and high-end housing, of which 8% can afford to buy high-end housing.
Regarding the time of recovery of the real estate market, Mr. Vo said that it depends on how the law is improved. If the recovery is successful but the legal problems are not resolved, the new cycle will not last long.
" And if the market goes down again, the inertia of the market will continue, then it will be very difficult to pull it up ," said Mr. Vo.
Chau Anh
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