US election could have unprecedented scenario in nearly 40 years
Báo Dân trí•25/10/2024
(Dan Tri) - In this year's election, no candidate may win all three battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, a US Republican pollster predicts.
US Vice President Kamala Harris (right) and former President Donald Trump (Photo: AFP).
In an interview with Fox Business on October 24, pollster Mitchell Brown said that in this year's US presidential election, it is possible that neither Republican candidate Donald Trump nor Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will win all three key states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania - a scenario that has not happened since 1988. In the 1988 election, while Republican candidate Vice President George H.W. Bush won in Michigan and Pennsylvania, Democratic candidate, Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis, won in Wisconsin. According to Mr. Brown, former President Trump may have an advantage in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, but it is difficult to win in all three states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. "If you look at 2016, Trump won all three of those states, while President Joe Biden won all three in 2020. What I see here is that no candidate is going to win all three of those states. That means Trump only needs to win one of those three states to win," Brown said. The winner of those states has typically won the presidency, with the exception of Democrat Al Gore, who won all three but lost the 2000 presidential election to George W. Bush. "I still believe that Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are the two states that are most likely to go to Trump, but if turnout is maximized, Trump could win all three," the Republican pollster said. Pennsylvania is a key battleground state in this year's election. Harris and Trump are competing for the state's 19 electoral votes. Pennsylvania has more electoral votes than any other battleground state that is expected to decide the election. In 2016, Mr. Trump narrowly defeated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania. However, in the 2020 election, President Joe Biden has reversed the situation. Most polls in Pennsylvania show a tight margin between the candidates, making the outcome in this state very unpredictable. Ms. Harris's clearest path to victory is to win the three "Blue Wall" battleground states and avoid doing too badly in the others. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump's most effective path to winning at least 270 electoral votes is to win the states of North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania. In Wisconsin, a poll by The Hill news site shows Mr. Trump leading Ms. Harris by a narrow margin of 48.5% to 48.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, according to a New York Times poll, Ms. Harris leads Mr. Trump by 1 percentage point. In Michigan, the race is also extremely tight, with the difference in support between the two candidates ranging from only 0.1 to 1 percentage point.
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