Tensions over control of the US House of Representatives in 2024

According to CBS News, retirement decisions are often made after the holidays, as lawmakers are used to discussing their next steps with their families. Democrats need to pick up just five seats to take control of the House of Representatives from Republicans in the 2024 election, so every seat is crucial.

The US Congress has entered its year-end recess.

To date, 35 members of the House of Representatives, including 23 Democrats and 12 Republicans, have announced their intention to retire or move to other departments, according to the US House press agency. Of these, the number of Democrats holding seats in "battlefield" constituencies who want to retire is higher than that of Republicans.

As a result, there are up to seven open seats in next year's election cycle, according to the Cook Political Report, an independent newsletter that analyzes US elections. These seats include the seats of Representatives Dan Kildee and Elissa Slotkin of Michigan; Katie Porter of California; and Abigail Spanberger of Virginia.

Republicans, including the House campaign arm, believe the mass retirements of their Democratic colleagues will give them an advantage in next year's election. "Open seats in battleground districts are tilting the House of Representatives, putting Democrats on the defensive from coast to coast," said Jack Pandol, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), CBS News reported.

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While Democrats still count on voters to fill open seats, losing incumbents is expected to change the dynamics in already tight races. Incumbents enjoy the benefits of name recognition and easier fundraising, while open seats can lead to expensive races and unfavorable outcomes.

The move, with more Democrats leaving than their Republican colleagues, is partly due to the current makeup of the House of Representatives. Many Republicans are first-term incumbents, and thus tend to hold on to their seats once elected.

In addition, Congressman Tom Cole, former Chairman of the NRCC, commented that recent crises in the House of Representatives, including the controversy surrounding the position of Speaker of the House of Representatives as well as the polarization and division within the Washington administration, could cause more congressmen to leave than expected.

While he believes the wave of temporary retirements could give Republicans an advantage, Cole predicts the battle for control of the US House of Representatives will be extremely dramatic next year, with the outcome unpredictable.

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