Recovering consumption to boost economic growth in 2025

However, since the beginning of the year, although total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue have not yet achieved double-digit growth as in the period before the COVID-19 pandemic, the General Statistics Office assessed this as a positive result of the Vietnamese economy , especially in the context of the world economy facing many difficulties and challenges.

Cashless payment at AEON supermarket. Illustration photo: Tran Viet/VNA

According to the report of the Ministry of Industry and Trade , although the world and regional economies are still facing difficulties, Vietnam's e-commerce still maintains an impressive growth rate, reaching an increase of 18% - 25% per year. In 2024, the size of the e-commerce market will reach over 25 billion USD, an increase of 20% compared to 2023, accounting for about 9% of total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue nationwide. This shows that consumers increasingly prefer online shopping methods.

In 2025, with comprehensive changes in the development and implementation of policies and legal documents on e-commerce, with a series of legal documents and policies such as: Law on E-commerce, laws on tax, online export, e-commerce statistics, the National E-commerce Development Master Plan for the period 2026 - 2030 will be issued and take effect, Vietnam's e-commerce will develop rapidly and sustainably in the coming years, being an important channel in product consumption, promoting consumption, and economic development.

With a GDP growth scenario of over 8% this year, all economic sectors must grow about 0.7-1.3% higher than in 2024; in which, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (at current prices) this year must increase by 12% or more.

According to newly released data from the General Statistics Office, Ministry of Finance, in the first 6 months of 2025, the total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue at current prices is estimated at VND 3,416.8 trillion, up 9.3% over the same period last year (in the same period in 2024, it increased by 8.9%), if excluding price factors, it increased by 7.2% (in the same period in 2024, it increased by 6%).

Retail sales of goods in the first 6 months were estimated at VND2,613.1 trillion, accounting for 76.5% of the total and up 7.9% over the same period last year; of which, cultural and educational items increased by 11.5%; food and foodstuffs increased by 9.5%; garments increased by 6.1%; household appliances, tools and equipment increased by 5.5%. Revenue from accommodation and catering services was estimated at VND409.5 trillion, accounting for 12% of the total and up 14.7% over the same period last year.

Ms. Nguyen Thu Oanh, Head of the Department of Service and Price Statistics, General Statistics Office, said: In the total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue, retail sales of goods accounted for 76.5%, up 7.9% over the same period last year, equivalent to the growth rate of the same period in 2024 and lower than the pre-pandemic period. This shows that people tend to tighten their consumption of goods; at the same time, the consumption trend has shifted from quantity to quality, especially after the peak period of fighting against smuggling, trade fraud, counterfeit goods, and fake goods.

While people tend to be more restrained in their consumption of goods, consumption of services has increased. Especially during holidays and Tet, consumers are willing to spend on travel. Along with that, the number of international visitors to Vietnam in the first 6 months of this year reached 10.7 million, up 20.7% over the same period last year, contributing to the increase in service revenue. Specifically: Revenue from accommodation and food services increased by 14.7%; revenue from tourism and travel increased by 23.2%.

According to economic experts, from the perspective of the people, everyone can contribute to the country's growth target from the consumption perspective. Accordingly, when consumers spend more, the revenue of retail businesses will increase, helping manufacturing businesses consume products, have sustainable financial resources to invest in expanding scale, researching and developing new products.

In addition, to meet consumer demand, businesses must expand production, invest more in production infrastructure and technology, thereby creating job opportunities and increasing income for people. As businesses grow, they will need to hire more workers, which contributes to faster economic growth.

According to economist Nguyen Bich Lam, former General Director of the General Statistics Office, consumption and economic growth have a reciprocal, supportive and mutually reinforcing impact. In order for economic consumption to recover rapidly in 2025 and flourish in 2026, creating an important driving force for rapid and sustainable economic growth in the coming time, the Government needs to direct ministries, branches and localities to effectively implement a number of groups of solutions such as: controlling inflation, maintaining macroeconomic stability, this is a necessary condition to create consumer confidence; at the same time, effectively promote solutions to stimulate consumption, especially the solution of reducing VAT by 2%.

“According to calculations, a 2% reduction in VAT will boost GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points provided inflation is controlled below the target level,” emphasized Dr. Nguyen Bich Lam.

Along with that, the Government needs to regulate exchange rates and interest rates appropriately to avoid expected inflation that negatively impacts purchasing power; control price increases during peak seasons of some specific products to encourage and attract people to spend domestically.

On the other hand, improve the quality of domestic goods and services at competitive prices to encourage people to consume Vietnamese goods and services, reduce consumption of imported goods and services. Increase promotional campaigns, make the most of the golden time during the tourist season and major national holidays to promote people's spending.

In addition, it is necessary to restructure the economy, adjust the growth model to be more balanced between investment, consumption and export. Implement investment with a reasonable structure between infrastructure development and production and business, create a new superior economic model to promote rapid and sustainable growth. Restructuring the economy plays an important role in innovation and creating a new superior growth model, in line with the development trend of the world economy, improving productivity, quality, efficiency, competitiveness and creating new momentum for development.

At the same time, urgently create and effectively implement an inclusive institutional system, with businesses and people at the center. Innovate, build and operate an effective and efficient national governance state; shift from a bureaucratic administration to a professional, creative, serving and governing state, putting national interests first. The Government needs to build and operate a 24/7 artificial intelligence government model, operating smarter, with better quality, anytime, anywhere, promoting faster social movement and better opportunity capture.

In particular, the Government needs to have a roadmap and policies, breakthrough solutions to build the private economy into one of the most important pillars of the economy, the most important driving force to promote growth. Form and develop large, strong private economic groups with international competitiveness, carrying out the mission of leading and supporting domestic enterprises to participate deeply in the global value chain.

According to VNA

Source: https://doanhnghiepvn.vn/kinh-te/tieu-dung-phuc-hoi-thuc-day-tang-truong-kinh-te-nam-2025/20250725042223507