Stock market welcomes new wind

Prospects for upgrade, positive forecast for Q2 business results and low interest rates are supporting the stock market to flourish.

The stock market on May 26 surprised investors when the VN-Index dropped more than 20 points at the beginning of the day and then rebounded strongly by 18.05 points at the end of the day to 1,332 points. The total fluctuation was up to 40 points in just one day. This positivity came from the bottom-fishing money flow and positive information after a statement on tariffs by US President Donald Trump.

Lots of positive news

Specifically, President Donald Trump said that the tariff policies he introduced were aimed at producing large items such as military equipment and technology, instead of sneakers and T-shirts. This helped textile, footwear, seafood, etc. stocks to increase very strongly.

Previously, the stock market also lost 20% of its value after the US president announced a 46% reciprocal tax on Vietnamese goods, but the VN-Index quickly recovered in a V-shape after the tax was suspended. At present, the index has far surpassed the psychological barrier of 1,300 points and the market is attracting strong cash flow from investors.

Stock market experts all have positive comments about the stock market from now until the end of the year. Photo: QUANG LIEM

Speaking at a financial talkshow with the theme "Stock market fluctuations in the second half of 2025" organized by Nguoi Lao Dong Newspaper on May 26, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan, senior lecturer at Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics (UEH), analyzed that the main factor affecting the international and domestic stock markets is the actions and information about the tariff policy of US President Donald Trump. Most recently, Mr. Trump announced that he could impose a 50% tax on goods from the EU, and international stocks immediately turned red. But a day later, the US president announced that this tax rate would be postponed.

In the long term, stocks are affected by cash flow. However, with the unpredictable policies of the US president as it is now, it is necessary to consider whether the cash flow of international investors will flow to the US market to benefit from the tariff policy or flow back to emerging markets, including Vietnam...

Another notable development is that the VND interest rate and the USD/VND exchange rate have recently fluctuated and put pressure on the stock market, but have had almost no impact on the stock market. According to Associate Professor, Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan, the impact of tariff policies has overwhelmed the interest rate and exchange rate factors on the market. "When tariff information eases, interest rates will affect stocks. Currently, the VN-Index is positive thanks to low interest rates and people looking for other investment channels. From another perspective, despite low interest rates, deposits from residents flowing into the banking system are still increasing strongly, showing that people and investors are still standing outside to observe. This is a great potential for the upcoming stock market," said the UEH expert.

Why haven't investors "come ashore" yet?

Mr. Huynh Huu Phuoc, Director of Individual Clients and Director of Can Tho Branch - Rong Viet Securities Company (VDSC), explained that although the market has recovered strongly over the past month, many investor accounts are still suffering losses. From the decline of VN-Index on April 2 (known as "tariff day") when the index fell from about 1,315 points to the lowest level of 1,097 points, the market has now recovered to its old level. However, many stocks have not recovered accordingly. In the VN30 basket, about half of the stocks have not returned to the level before April 2; on HoSE with more than 600 stocks, more than 60% have not recovered.

Mr. Phuoc added that although the VN-Index has increased by more than 235 points since the bottom in early April, the Vingroup group of stocks (VIC, VHM, VRE, VPL) contributed more than 30% to this increase. That caused the general VN-Index to "return to earth" but many investor accounts were still "floating" offshore, because the recovery was focused on certain groups of stocks. "The strong differentiation between stock groups when the general market recovered in a V-shape over the past two months explains why many investors have not yet "returned to shore" - this expert said.

Mr. Dao Minh Chau, Deputy Director of the Center for Analysis and Investment Consulting - SSI Securities Company, said that since the beginning of the year, stock groups have contributed about 45 points to the overall market growth, while Vingroup alone has contributed up to 90 points. The strong recovery of Vingroup stocks is explained by positive business results in the first quarter of 2025, the listing of Vinpearl's VPL shares on HoSE, along with the less impact of tariff policies.

On the contrary, most other stock groups such as exports, industrial real estate, and seaports have not recovered as expected due to the impact of tariff policies. Mr. Chau also emphasized that the P/E valuation of the stock market is currently lower than the average of the past 10 years, showing that there are still many attractive opportunities for foreign investors. In addition, Vietnam also has another important supporting factor: the possibility of being upgraded from a frontier market to an emerging market by the end of this year.

Bright door in the second half of the year

Commenting on the stock market fluctuations in the second half of the year and the prospects for stock groups, Mr. Huynh Huu Phuoc said that technically, the market bottom was established during the decline in early April. The VN-Index then continued to test the "bottom" for the second time, falling to about 1,130 points and then recovering quickly in a V-shape. Therefore, from now until July 8, when there is official information about the tariff level after negotiations, the market has fully reflected it in the price.

Mr. Phuoc predicts that from now until the end of the year, the VN-Index will fluctuate between 1,040 and 1,380 points, the rest depends on the market's reaction. With positive growth in the first quarter of 2025 and a forecast of continued optimism in the second quarter based on the low base of the same period last year, export orders in April and May will increase to take advantage before the tax is imposed. According to him, the biggest risks have been revealed, but the story of expectations remains positive.

Mr. Dao Minh Chau said that after a recovery period of over 20%, with many stocks increasing sharply by 40%-50%, even doubling, the VN-Index needs time to slow down and accumulate. The market may fluctuate in the next 1-2 months due to uncertain information related to US tariff policy and the risk of recession in some world economies. "However, if there is a fluctuation, it is not too worrying, because the April 2025 collapse has reflected most of the tariff information, and businesses also have time to prepare to respond," Mr. Chau said.

SSI and VDSC experts believe that there are currently many investment opportunities in sectors such as banking, industrial park real estate, retail, consumption, import-export, oil and gas, and fertilizer.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/chung-khoan-don-lan-gio-moi-196250526213750166.htm