The market is experiencing a fairly positive period in the first days of the new year, but the VN-Index is gradually facing profit-taking selling pressure at the new challenging zone of 1,160 points when the index has had some slight fluctuations and even corrections. The weakness of the banking industry's king stocks has caused the VN-Index to drop in height and luckily still maintain its green color thanks to the vibrant cash flow.
It can be seen that the cash flow stuck in the previous period has been released after many stocks escaped the base price zone and grew. In addition, some large industry groups such as banks have entered the market, attracting more cash flow to participate in the market. Thanks to the banking group, the cash flow has been more active and has had the opportunity to spread to many other industry groups.
Market liquidity is expected to continue to increase in the coming time thanks to idle cash flow from other channels participating and investors will further increase margin to increase profits.
However, according to some experts, it is difficult to expect a "wave" of business results in the fourth quarter of 2023, because although the profit picture of enterprises is more optimistic than in the third quarter, the expected profit increase is low, not easy to create a boost for the stock market.
Looking back at Vietnam's economy in 2023, production is low, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) in the last 3 months of the year is below 50; exports have not recovered clearly because the economies of the main import partners, the US, EU and China, are still in a difficult period; interest rates have decreased sharply but cash flow is slow to flow into production and business activities...
With businesses “closing their figures”, only some industries with “savings” such as real estate can make a breakthrough in the last quarter of the year. For the banking group, experts do not have high expectations, because “savings” are almost gone, the bad debt coverage ratio has reached a low level. As for manufacturing and trading businesses, profits are usually divided evenly throughout the year, not concentrated in the fourth quarter.
Factors to expect the stock market to grow in the coming time According to Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, most of the market is expecting the growth of listed enterprises in 2024, because the promotion and support policies have been issued, now just waiting for the results from the enterprises. The business results of enterprises must be really good to create a boost for the stock market.
Deposit interest rates have bottomed out, and lending interest rates are expected to fall further as high-interest deposits in early 2023 mature and circulate into the system, helping banks reduce capital costs, thereby lowering lending rates to low levels to attract new businesses to borrow, serving production and business activities. It is forecasted that the production, consumption and export sectors will grow, but not too high.
From those analytical factors, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong puts the probability at 40% in the optimistic scenario, the market will experience a slight "wave" of increase; 60% is the market will move sideways at the current level.
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