Will a sharp decline occur?

Coffee prices forecast for September 4, 2024, in the domestic market are expected to reverse and decline. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development , in the first eight months of 2024, Vietnam exported 1.05 million tons of coffee with a value of US$4.03 billion, a decrease of 11.9% in volume but an increase of 36.1% in value. The export price of coffee reached US$3,805/ton, a sharp increase of 54.5% compared to the same period.

Coffee price forecast September 4, 2024: Will a sharp decline occur?

Experts say that the record increase in Vietnam's export coffee prices recently is due to a scarcity of global supply. In the 2023-2024 crop year, drought and pest infestations caused a 20% decrease in coffee production in the Central Highlands, the country's key growing region, compared to the previous year. Despite the crop failure and reduced production, the high coffee prices have brought significant benefits to farmers, businesses, and the coffee industry as a whole.

Domestic coffee prices, updated at 4:30 AM on September 3, 2024, are as follows: The domestic coffee market today remains stable compared to the same time yesterday, ranging from 121,000 to 122,100 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 121,400 VND/kg, with the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province at 122,100 VND/kg.

Specifically, the purchase price of coffee in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 121,700 VND/kg, while in Pleiku and La Grai it is 121,600 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province, the price is 121,700 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 122,100 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong province, in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha, the price of bulk green coffee beans (green coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) is 121,000 VND/kg.

Today's coffee prices (September 3rd) in Dak Lak province are as follows: in Cu M'gar district, coffee is being purchased at approximately 121,900 VND/kg, while in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it is being purchased at 121,800 VND/kg.

According to the latest update on world coffee prices at 8:30 PM on September 3, 2024 (Vietnam time) on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was 4,765 USD/ton, an increase of 65 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee prices today, September 3, 2024: Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange. (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

The November 2024 delivery price was $4,567/ton, up $78; the January 2025 delivery price was $4,391/ton, up $82; and the March 2025 delivery price was $4,279/ton, up $82.

Coffee prices today, September 3, 2024: New York Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Specifically, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York exchange today, at 8:30 PM on September 3, 2024, decreased across all contract periods, fluctuating between 236.05 and 242.65 cents/lb.

Specifically, the December 2024 contract was 242.65 cents/lb, down 1.40 cents/lb from the start of the session. The March 2025 contract was 240.70 cents/lb, down 1.40 cents/lb; the May 2025 contract was 238.70 cents/lb, down 1.15 cents/lb; and the July 2025 contract was 236.05 cents/lb, down 0.95 cents/lb.

Coffee prices today, September 3, 2024: Brazilian Arabica coffee prices. (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices increased today at 8:30 PM on September 3, 2024. Specifically, the September 2024 delivery contract was $298.60/ton; the December 2024 contract was $294.50/ton, up 0.68%; the March 2025 contract was $293.15/ton, up 0.88%; and the May 2025 contract was $293.05/ton.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London exchange) opens at 4:00 PM and closes at 12:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York exchange) opens at 4:15 PM and closes at 1:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

On a day when the New York Stock Exchange was absent, speculators intensified their sell-off on the London exchange. According to coffee market expert Nguyen Quang Binh, the reason is that large hedge funds have purchased many short contracts that have not been liquidated for months. This is also a move to adjust the price difference between the two exchanges.

The US dollar remained near its highest level in almost two weeks, as investors focused on the US jobs report expected to be released later this week, pushing coffee prices lower at the start of the week.

News of extreme drought conditions in Brazil may have shocked the plants, coupled with early flowering of coffee trees, causing market concerns about the country's upcoming harvest. This could be a factor driving the market back up when the New York Stock Exchange resumes trading today.

*This information is for reference only. Prices may vary depending on the time and location.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-492024-da-giam-manh-se-dien-ra-343183.html