Vietnam's population is entering a period of rapid aging.

According to the report "Vietnam Population Forecast 2024-2074" recently published by the General Statistics Office, Vietnam's population growth rate is trending downwards, with the demographic dividend period ending in 2036. Notably, by 2049, Vietnam is projected to have a shortage of approximately 1.3 million women of marriageable age, leading to numerous social consequences.

According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam's population will continue to grow in the coming decades, but the growth rate will gradually slow down and is expected to peak around 2059 under the average fertility rate scenario, before entering a phase of slow, stable, or declining growth.

The report is based on the results of the 2024 Mid-Term Population and Housing Census and forecasts the population size of the whole country, urban and rural areas, 6 socio -economic regions, and 34 provinces and centrally-administered cities for the period 2024-2074.

Over the next 50 years, under three fertility scenarios—low fertility rate (1.45 children/woman), average fertility rate (1.85 children/woman), and high fertility rate (2.01 children/woman)—Vietnam's population is projected to increase by 2.5%, 12.7%, and 17% respectively, reaching 103.9 million, 114.2 million, and 118.5 million people by 2074.

Specifically, according to the average scenario, the average annual population growth rate will reach 0.66% during the period 2024-2029. After that, the growth rate will gradually decrease and reach 0% by 2060. From 2061 onwards, the population will begin to decline.

If the birth rate declines according to the low-growth scenario, Vietnam will enter a period of negative population growth sooner, as early as 2051, which is about 10 years earlier than the average-growth scenario.

Alarmingly, the population decline is occurring rapidly and increasingly strongly: During the period 2049-2054, the population decreased by an average of 0.05% per year; by the period 2069-2074, the decrease reached 0.44% per year, equivalent to approximately 461,000 people per year.

In this context, the Party, State, and Government are striving to develop policies to maintain the replacement fertility rate. According to the high fertility scenario, Vietnam's population will continue to grow slightly until 2074, with an average increase of 0.05% per year during the period 2069-2074, equivalent to approximately 58,000 people per year.

The forecast results indicate that the overall sex ratio of Vietnam's population will remain relatively balanced in the coming years. By 2029, all three scenarios predict a sex ratio of approximately 99.8 males per 100 females. However, in the long term, the proportion of females in the population tends to be slightly higher than that of males.

Nevertheless, the gender imbalance at birth, which emerged around 2005, has had and continues to have clear consequences. The 2024 mid-term census shows that the number of men of marriageable age is currently about 415,200 more than the number of women in the same age group.

According to the average population scenario, by 2029, for every 100 men of marriageable age (20-39 years old), more than 3 will be unable to find a woman in the same age group. By 2034, the number of surplus men of marriageable age will increase to 711,700, equivalent to 4.9% of the male population aged 20-39.

This situation is expected to worsen and peak in 2049, when Vietnam is projected to have a shortage of approximately 1.3 million women of marriageable age, equivalent to 8.7% of men of the same age.

After this point, the male surplus tends to decrease due to the assumption that the sex ratio at birth will gradually return to balance, but by 2074 there will still be approximately 829,000 more men of marriageable age than women.

According to experts, the shortage of women of marriageable age can increase the vulnerability of a segment of women in society, particularly the risk of violence, sexual exploitation, and human trafficking, in the context of increasingly fierce competition among men for partners. This is an issue that needs special attention in population, gender, and social security policy planning.

The report also states that Vietnam's demographic dividend period, where there is one dependent for every two people of working age (15-64 years old), will end in 2036. After this point, Vietnam will enter a period of aging and eventually super-aging, with a rapid shrinking of young and middle-aged age groups, while the elderly population will increase significantly.

Furthermore, internal migration continues to be a significant factor altering population distribution across regions, reflecting differences in socio-economic development conditions and the ability of each locality to attract and utilize labor.

Given the current situation of rapidly declining birth rates in Vietnam, with the risk of a prolonged low rate, the Ministry of Health is urging couples of childbearing age to have two children to ensure a reasonable population size, maintain human resources, and promote sustainable national development in the coming decades.

One notable proposal is a housing support policy for families with two children. Accordingly, the Ministry of Health proposes adding a provision to the Housing Law allowing women who have two children to purchase social housing. Eligibility for purchasing social housing will still be based on criteria issued by the Ministry of Construction, while also being linked to population policies aimed at encouraging two-child births in urban areas.

In addition to policies at the central level, many localities have proactively issued resolutions of the People's Council on population work in the new situation.

Local authorities are simultaneously implementing solutions to support family planning services, encouraging two-child births in low-birth-rate areas, while continuing to control and reduce third births in high-birth-rate areas.

In areas with low birth rates, many practical support policies have been and are being implemented, such as providing cash, in-kind assistance, or one-time medical expense support for women who have two children before the age of 35.

These policies are combined with the implementation of pre-marital counseling models, pre-marital health check-ups, support for infertility treatment, and reproductive health care for men.

Following the administrative unit reorganization and merger process, several provinces and cities are continuing to review and propose the issuance of new resolutions by the People's Council to unify policies, ensuring they are consistent with practical conditions and the ability to balance the local budget.

According to Director of the Population Department Le Thanh Dung, to increase the birth rate in the future, it is crucial to build a comprehensive, long-term policy system that closely links socio-economic development with population work. In this system, the decisive involvement of Party committees and governments at all levels, and the consensus and participation of the entire society, play a key role.

Along with improving mechanisms and policies, the Ministry of Health will strengthen communication and social guidance on the value of family and having two children.

In the near future, the population sector is expected to implement social mobilization activities with the message "Patriotism means having two children," aiming to help fill the gap in the alarmingly low birth rate and move towards a rational and sustainable population structure for the future.

It is known that the Population Law 2025, recently passed by the National Assembly, contains many important provisions, including a shift from a family planning mindset to ensuring reproductive rights.

Accordingly, instead of recommending that each couple should only have one or two children as before, the Law empowers each individual and couple to decide for themselves when to have children, the number of children, and the spacing between births based on what is appropriate for their health, economic conditions, and ability to raise children.

This approach not only ensures human rights but also aims to remove psychological barriers in the context of sharply declining birth rates in many localities, which risk negatively impacting long-term socio-economic development.

Alongside empowering families to have children, the 2025 Population Law introduces policies to encourage having two children through specific and practical support measures.

Notably, the regulations increase maternity leave for female workers giving birth to their second child to 7 months, an increase of one month compared to the current rate; at the same time, husbands are entitled to 10 working days off when their wives give birth to their second child to share the responsibility of caring for the family.

This is seen as a step forward in social welfare policy, contributing to reducing pressure on women and creating conditions for families to confidently have children.

Furthermore, the law expands socio-economic support to families who have two children. According to the new regulations, women who have two children before the age of 35, women who give birth in localities with low birth rates, or women belonging to ethnic minorities with very small populations will receive financial support.

In particular, families with two or more children are given priority to buy, rent-to-own, or rent social housing, thereby helping young couples settle down sooner and reduce the burden of housing costs.

Another new aspect of the 2025 Population Law is the tightening of measures to reduce gender imbalance at birth. The law strictly prohibits all acts of sex selection of the fetus and clearly stipulates penalties for medical practitioners who announce or disclose the sex of the fetus for the purpose of abortion, including suspension of practice as prescribed by law.

At the same time, the gender imbalance at birth will be periodically published annually by the central statistics agency, providing a basis for the Government and local authorities to develop more appropriate and effective intervention measures.

Notably, the 2025 Population Law for the first time places population aging as a central focus of national population policy. The law stipulates several long-term solutions such as developing a network of geriatric hospitals and geriatric specialists within general hospitals; expanding community-based elderly care models; developing long-term care insurance; and establishing policies to attract and train highly specialized human resources in the field of geriatrics.

In addition, the State encourages businesses to participate in providing goods and services for the elderly and to support the elderly in continuing to participate in the workforce, develop the economy, and adapt to digital transformation.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/dan-so-viet-nam-buoc-vao-thoi-ky-gia-hoa-nhanh-d471980.html