The unique aspects of American elections

US presidential elections are always full of surprises and drama, and can even have the potential to change the outcome at the last minute.

Voters cast their ballots at an early voting center on October 27 in Los Angeles, California. (Source: Getty Images)

Historically, unpredictable factors and changes caused by both subjective and objective elements have not only made the race for the White House dramatic, captivating, and globally attention-grabbing, but have also profoundly impacted the United States and the world .

Last-minute candidate change

The 2024 race witnessed a rare turn of events when Democratic candidate and incumbent President Joe Biden unexpectedly announced his withdrawal on July 22nd following what was considered an unsuccessful debate with Donald Trump on June 27th in Atlanta, Georgia.

There was a precedent when President Lyndon B. Johnson declined to seek re-election in March 1968 amidst rising anti-Vietnam War sentiment. However, Biden's decision, related to health issues, was considered unexpected and late, coming less than four months before the official election day. Nevertheless, the Democratic Party quickly stabilized the situation and nominated Vice President Kamala Harris as his replacement, who enjoyed overwhelming support from Democratic members, reaching 99%.

Convicted but still running for office

An unprecedented event in the history of presidential races is a former president, a candidate in the race, being convicted of a criminal offense during the campaign. On May 30th, Republican candidate Donald Trump was found guilty by a jury in Manhattan Supreme Court of all 34 charges related to falsifying business records. Despite facing potential prison sentences of 16 months to four years, surprisingly, these charges not only did not negatively impact his position but also helped solidify his standing within the Republican Party.

Shocking assassinations

US presidential candidates are always protected by tight security throughout their campaigns. However, so far, there have been five assassination attempts targeting candidates as the race enters its final stages.

The first incident occurred in 1912, when former President Theodore Roosevelt was shot and critically wounded during a campaign rally. Roosevelt was fortunate to have the papers and a metal glass case in his breast pocket save his life at the last minute.

The second and most tragic incident involved the assassination of candidate Robert F. Kennedy (brother of the late President John F. Kennedy) in 1968 at a Los Angeles hotel shortly after his victory speech in the California primary.

In 1972, Democratic presidential candidate George C. Wallace was fatally shot in Maryland. Although he survived, the gunshot wound left him paralyzed from the waist down, forcing him to withdraw from the race for the White House.

In 2024, the specter of violence once again loomed over the race when candidate Donald Trump narrowly escaped assassination twice within two months. The first incident saw him grazed by a bullet that grazed his ear while he was speaking at a campaign event in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13th. Two months later, on September 15th, he survived another assassination attempt while playing golf in West Palm Beach, Florida. However, the image of Trump with a bloodied face but still raising his fist after the first incident, and his resolute and tough statements after the second, further solidified his credibility.

The decisive power of the ballot

One of the unique aspects of the US presidential election is that the winner doesn't necessarily win the popular vote nationwide, but rather secures at least 270 electoral votes from the 538 electoral college votes.

In the 1824 race, although Andrew Jackson won the popular vote over John Quincy Adams, neither candidate secured the necessary majority of electoral votes, so the election was decided by the House of Representatives, and Adams won by a narrow margin of just one vote.

Similarly, in the 1876 race, Rutherford B. Hayes lost to his opponent by 250,000 popular votes but ultimately won by a single electoral vote. The 1880 race was even more dramatic, with James A. Garfield winning against Winfield Scott Hancock by only 7,368 popular votes and securing 214 electoral votes compared to his opponent's 155.

In 1960, John F. Kennedy defeated Richard Nixon by less than 120,000 votes out of a total of 68.8 million votes, winning 303 electoral votes compared to Nixon's 219. The 2000 election between George W. Bush and Al Gore was also a close contest, with Bush ultimately winning with 271 electoral votes compared to Al Gore's 266, despite losing the popular vote by more than half a million.

The 2016 race further demonstrated the complexity and fierce competition of the American electoral system, with Donald Trump winning with 304 electoral votes, despite Hillary Clinton winning the popular vote with over 2.8 million votes.

The race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is currently extremely close. To date, Donald Trump is projected to almost certainly secure all 219 electoral votes from the traditionally Republican stronghold states.

Meanwhile, Harris has also almost certainly secured the 226 electoral votes from the Democratic Party's "home" states. Therefore, the results of the voting in the seven swing states will likely decide the fate of this year's race.

"October Surprise"

Besides internal factors, external events have repeatedly created unexpected turning points in US presidential elections, especially in the final stages.

On October 26, 1972, when National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger unexpectedly declared that " peace was near" in Vietnam, it led American voters to believe that the controversial war was about to end, helping President Nixon win overwhelmingly with a margin of 18 million popular votes.

In 2004, during the close race between John Kerry and George Bush, when Kerry was leading, Al Qaeda leader Bin Laden unexpectedly appeared with a threat to attack the United States. This reminded people of the 9/11 terrorist attacks and led to praise for President Bush's handling of the situation, ultimately securing his victory.

Similarly, a week before the 2012 election, Hurricane Sandy struck the United States, giving President Obama an opportunity to demonstrate his leadership in crisis, helping him turn the tide in swing states and win a second term.

In this year's final stretch of the race, the devastating hurricanes Helene and Milton, which swept through several battleground states, along with a strike by 45,000 port workers nationwide, are seen by observers as potentially creating new "October surprises." These unexpected events will undoubtedly be used by candidates as effective campaign tools to persuade undecided voters.

Deep internal polarization

Throughout the history of US presidential elections, political polarization has been clearly reflected in each election and has only deepened. From the heated controversies surrounding the 2000 election results between George W. Bush and Al Gore, to the 2020 election with allegations of fraud and the January 6, 2021 Capitol Hill attack, the level of division in American society has reached alarming levels, as evidenced by the Georgetown Institute for Politics and Public Service survey conducted after the 2022 midterm elections, which scored 71 out of 100 for political division.

This is a worrying figure, as the maximum threshold is considered a sign of the risk of civil war. Entering the 2024 election, the failed assassination attempts on former President Trump have further exacerbated this situation, posing a major challenge to the functioning of American democracy and highlighting the urgent need for the winner to heal the widening rifts in American society.

New exercise tools

The history of American elections has always been intertwined with innovations in campaigning strategies using media. In 1960, the first televised debate between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon ushered in the era of audiovisual media in elections.

Entering the 21st century, former President Barack Obama made his mark in 2008 by pioneering the use of social media platforms like Facebook and YouTube to spread his campaign message. By 2016, Trump redefined the game by transforming Twitter into a personal political forum with a direct, unintermediate communication style.

The 2024 election marked a new shift in media tools with the rise of podcasts as a particularly effective campaigning channel. Most notably, Donald Trump's strategy of actively avoiding mainstream media but appearing in diverse podcasts ranging from sports to comedy garnered over 50 million views on YouTube alone. This demonstrates a fundamental change in how candidates reach voters, from traditional one-way communication to multi-directional interaction on modern digital platforms.

The US presidential election – one of the most complex and unpredictable elections in the world – is unfolding with unique aspects and promises of new surprises. Against the backdrop of deep social polarization in the US and a world facing increasingly severe challenges, the outcome of this 60th presidential race will not only shape the landscape of America in the coming years but will also have global impacts and influences.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/dieu-dac-biet-cua-bau-cu-my-292060.html